BetGenius
First DivisionFirst Division
18:00
Fri 6 Nov
WAT

AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa prediction

FollowFollowFollow match
Round
Regular Season - 9
Venue
AEK Arena, Larnaca

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Our call

Our verdict

Team Total Goals
Karmiotissa Under 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Karmiotissa Under 2.5 Goals (Team Total Goals) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

AEK Larnaca host Karmiotissa in Regular Season round 9 of the First Division, with the home side top of the table on 17 points from eight games and Karmiotissa 9th on 6 points with a goal difference of -11, in the relegation group. AEK have won three of their four home league and cup games this season, scoring 6 and conceding 2, while Karmiotissa have won one of five away-from-home matches... more precisely, one of five home games, scoring only 2 and conceding 12 there. Their away record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from three games, with 3 goals scored and 4 conceded.

The head-to-head record strongly favours AEK. They have won 8 of the last 10 meetings and Karmiotissa have won none, although the most recent meeting in February 2025 finished 3-0 to AEK. Across those ten meetings the average is 3.2 goals per game, but Karmiotissa's current attacking output is far lower than that history suggests: they have scored 0.6 goals per game overall this season and 1.0 per game away. AEK, under Ruben Selles, have conceded only 0.5 per game at home.

The fixture leans clearly towards an AEK win, and the stronger signal is the goal-scoring profile, which points towards a tight, low-scoring game rather than a high-scoring one. Team news for this fixture was not confirmed in the data, so the assessment rests on form, standings, goals and the head-to-head record.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. AEK Larnaca are top of the table on 17 points and have a goal difference of +8, while Karmiotissa are 9th on 6 points with a goal difference of -11.
  2. Karmiotissa have scored only 1.0 goal per game away from home this season and have not reached three goals in any game in the data supplied.
  3. AEK have conceded just 0.5 goals per game at home, with two clean sheets in their four home games.
  4. The head-to-head record strongly favours AEK, who have won eight of the last ten meetings, while Karmiotissa have won none.
  5. Karmiotissa have won only one of five home games this season and have conceded 12 goals in those matches.
  6. The head-to-head average of 3.2 goals per game is higher than the current scoring rates of both sides, so recent form is the better guide to the goal total.
Form

Recent form and results

Home

AEK Larnaca

3W 2D 0L · Goals 9–5

5 matches, 12 Oct to 31 Oct

74
Strong
WDWWDLatest →
  • atKrasava Ypsonas
    1. Division
    D2–2
  • vsOmonia Nicosia
    1. Division
    W2–0
  • vsAkritas
    Cup
    W3–2
  • atAris
    1. Division
    D1–1
  • vsOmonia Aradippou
    1. Division
    W1–0
Away

Karmiotissa

2W 0D 3L · Goals 4–10

5 matches, 9 Oct to 3 Nov

50
Average
LLLWWLatest →
  • vsErmis
    Cup
    W2–0
  • vsOlympiakos
    1. Division
    W1–0
  • vsApollon Limassol
    1. Division
    L0–5
  • atKrasava Ypsonas
    1. Division
    L1–2
  • vsOmonia Nicosia
    1. Division
    L0–3

Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.

Teams

Starting lineups

Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Venue records: AEK Larnaca: 1. Division (2026); Karmiotissa: 1. Division (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.

A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.

AEK Larnaca at homeKarmiotissa away
4
Played
3
3-0-1
W-D-L
0-2-1
1.5
Scored /game
1
0.5
Conceded /game
1.3
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
20% (5 games)
40% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
60% (5 games)

Combined scoring rate: 2.5 goals per game (AEK Larnaca at home plus Karmiotissa away).

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1AEK LarnacaPromotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)8+817
2Apollon LimassolPromotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)8+1116
3Omonia NicosiaPromotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)8+915
4ArisPromotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)8+215
6Apoel NicosiaPromotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)8+814
7PafosCyprus League (Relegation Group)8+413
8Omonia 29is MaiouCyprus League (Relegation Group)8011
9KarmiotissaCyprus League (Relegation Group)8-116
10AnorthosisCyprus League (Relegation Group)8-86
11Omonia AradippouCyprus League (Relegation Group)8-56
12OlympiakosCyprus League (Relegation Group)8-26
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
8
AEK Larnaca
2
Draws
0
Karmiotissa

AEK Larnaca have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.2 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

  • 2025-02-22Karmiotissa0-3AEK Larnaca
  • 2024-11-25AEK Larnaca2-0Karmiotissa
  • 2024-01-26Karmiotissa1-3AEK Larnaca
  • 2023-10-21AEK Larnaca5-0Karmiotissa
  • 2023-02-04Karmiotissa1-3AEK Larnaca
Prices

Bookmaker odds comparison

Cached odds are more than two hours old and are withheld until refreshed.

Predictions

3 published markets

Combo Bet
Team Total Goals
Karmiotissa Under 2.5 Goals
78%
Confidence

Karmiotissa have scored 5 goals in 8 games this season and only 3 in their three away fixtures, an average of 1.0 per away game. Their highest tally in the last five matches was two goals, scored in a home cup win over Ermis. Their most productive goal return this season came from a 1-0 home win over Olympiakos, and their away league defeats were 2-1 and 1-2 type results in which they found the net only once. AEK Larnaca have kept two clean sheets at home and conceded only 0.5 goals per game there, which makes a three-goal haul for the visitors unlikely. Karmiotissa need three or more goals to break this line, which their scoring rate does not support.

Combo Bet
Draw No Bet
AEK Larnaca (draw no bet)
74%
Confidence

AEK Larnaca sit top of the table on 17 points, eleven points clear of Karmiotissa's 6, with a goal difference of +8 against the visitors' -11. Their form is strong overall at 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from eight games, and they have won 3 of 4 home matches. Karmiotissa have won only one of their five home games this season and have conceded 12 goals there. The head-to-head record also favours AEK, who have won eight of the last ten meetings, with Karmiotissa winning none. The main reason this is not higher is that AEK drew their last league game 2-2 away at Krasava Ypsonas, and the draw is refunded under this bet, so the outcome that matters is a home win. Taken on its own, the home win is the more likely result, but the number reflects that the win alone is not overwhelmingly likely given the modest scoring output on both sides.

Combo Bet
Combo Bet
Karmiotissa Under 2.5 Goals + AEK Larnaca (draw no bet)
74%
Both must land · no better than

Karmiotissa Under 2.5 Goals — 78% confidence

Karmiotissa have scored 5 goals in 8 games this season and only 3 in their three away fixtures, an average of 1.0 per away game. Their highest tally in the last five matches was two goals, scored in a home cup win over Ermis. Their most productive goal return this season came from a 1-0 home win over Olympiakos, and their away league defeats were 2-1 and 1-2 type results in which they found the net only once. AEK Larnaca have kept two clean sheets at home and conceded only 0.5 goals per game there, which makes a three-goal haul for the visitors unlikely. Karmiotissa need three or more goals to break this line, which their scoring rate does not support.

AEK Larnaca (draw no bet) — 74% confidence

AEK Larnaca sit top of the table on 17 points, eleven points clear of Karmiotissa's 6, with a goal difference of +8 against the visitors' -11. Their form is strong overall at 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from eight games, and they have won 3 of 4 home matches. Karmiotissa have won only one of their five home games this season and have conceded 12 goals there. The head-to-head record also favours AEK, who have won eight of the last ten meetings, with Karmiotissa winning none. The main reason this is not higher is that AEK drew their last league game 2-2 away at Krasava Ypsonas, and the draw is refunded under this bet, so the outcome that matters is a home win. Taken on its own, the home win is the more likely result, but the number reflects that the win alone is not overwhelmingly likely given the modest scoring output on both sides.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (team total goals and draw no bet), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

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About this data

Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 4 Nov 2026, 19:55 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.

Team context last fetched: AEK Larnaca: 4 Nov 2026, 19:55 WAT; Karmiotissa: 4 Nov 2026, 19:55 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 21:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.

Published November 4, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.