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Sun 11 Oct · 20:30

Arouca vs Estrela prediction

Follow AroucaFollow EstrelaFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 8
Venue
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca
Referee
Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Arouca
65Strong

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +1 goal difference

Estrela
48Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Arouca or Draw

BetGenius backs Arouca or Draw (Double Chance) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

75%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Arouca welcome Estrela to the Estadio Municipal de Arouca in round eight of the Primeira Liga, with just a single point separating the two sides in the upper-midfield positions. Arouca sit fifth on 11 points, currently occupying a European qualification spot, while Estrela follow closely in eighth with 10 points.

The hosts enter this contest following an encouraging 2-2 draw away to Sporting CP, having also claimed victories in two of their three home league fixtures this campaign. Arouca have been reliable in front of goal at home, netting seven times across three outings for an average of 2.3 goals per home match.

Estrela have been involved in open, high-scoring contests throughout the campaign, having scored 14 goals and conceded 14 across seven games. While they remain unbeaten away from home with one win and two draws, they have conceded seven goals on their travels and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Arouca are unbeaten in all three previous home league encounters against Estrela, registering two wins and one draw.
  2. Estrela have failed to record a single clean sheet in seven Primeira Liga matches this season, conceding 14 goals overall and seven in three away games.
  3. Arouca have scored in every home game this season, producing an average of 2.3 goals per match on their own turf.
  4. Estrela are frequent drawn-game participants, having drawn four of their seven league fixtures to date.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Arouca at homeEstrela away
4
Played
4
3-0-1
W-D-L
1-2-1
2
Scored /game
2
0.8
Conceded /game
2
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 4 goals per game (Arouca at home plus Estrela away).

Players

Key players this season

Arouca

  • Barbero5G
  • N. Djouahra5A

Estrela

  • A. Marcus4G
  • L. Antonetti4G
  • Eddy Doue3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
2BenficaPromotion - Champions League (League phase)8+1719
3Sporting CPPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)8+1118
4Santa ClaraPromotion - Europa League (Qualification)8+818
5AroucaPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)8+414
6GIL Vicente8+214
7Academico Viseu8+114
8Alverca8+111
9SC Braga8-111
10Estrela8-110
11Vitória SC908
12Moreirense8-78
13Maritimo9-108
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
4
Arouca
1
Draws
2
Estrela

Arouca have won 4 of the last 7 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game.

  • 2026-10-11Arouca1-0Estrela
  • 2026-04-19Arouca1-0Estrela
  • 2025-12-07Estrela3-1Arouca
  • 2025-04-19Arouca1-0Estrela
  • 2024-12-09Estrela2-1Arouca
BetGenius

Our record in Primeira Liga

69%49 won from 71 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Arouca or Draw
75%
Confidence

Arouca have demonstrated dependable form on home soil, winning two of their three home matches and scoring seven goals. In addition, Arouca hold a strong head-to-head record when hosting Estrela, winning two and drawing one of the three meetings at this venue without conceding a single goal. Estrela have shared the points frequently this season, recording four draws in seven matches, and their defensive vulnerabilities are underscored by a total absence of clean sheets across all competitions. Covering the home win alongside the draw accounts for Estrela's persistence on the road while favouring Arouca's consistency and historical resilience in this fixture.

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Published October 9, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.