BTTS Yes — 68% confidence
Both sides carry strong scoring records into this tie. Lille have found the net in each of their last five matches, scoring multiple goals against Real Betis, Estac Troyes, and Zulte Waregem. Arsenal have also scored in four of their previous five games, netting four against Ipswich and two against Leeds. With Arsenal missing their primary defensive anchor W. Saliba to a back injury, Lille have a realistic path to scoring, while Arsenal's regular attacking output makes it probable they respond in kind.
Arsenal or Draw — 76% confidence
Arsenal hold the upper hand in form having secured four wins from their last five matches, highlighted by an away clean sheet against Napoli and recent home success over Leeds. Lille struggled defensively in their European opener by conceding three goals against Real Betis and also lost their recent away trip 2-1 to Nice. Furthermore, Lille must navigate this fixture without the suspended E. Mbappe as well as H. Igamane and T. Santos. While the injury to W. Saliba makes a clean sheet harder to maintain, Arsenal possess sufficient depth and home advantage to avoid defeat.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (both teams to score and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.