BetGenius
Round
League D - 4
Venue
Bakcell Arena, Baku
Referee
Gustavo Correia, Portugal
Form

Recent form

Azerbaijan
61Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · 0 goal difference

Lithuania
67Strong

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +4 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals
Under 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Under 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

74%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Azerbaijan host Lithuania in UEFA Nations League D action following a 1-1 draw between the two sides just a week prior. Azerbaijan enter the contest after picking up that away point in their sole group outing, building on recent home victories against Tajikistan and San Marino earlier in the year.

Lithuania arrive having recorded a mixed start to their competitive campaign, bouncing back with a 3-0 win over Andorra following a 2-0 away victory against Liechtenstein and their stalemate with Azerbaijan. Both sides have shown a structured approach, often deploying five-man defensive setups to limit space in competitive fixtures.

With both teams familiar with each other after their recent meeting, a tightly contested encounter with limited scoring opportunities is expected in Baku.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Azerbaijan and Lithuania drew 1-1 in their previous meeting just days ago
  2. Four of Azerbaijan's last five matches in all competitions produced two goals or fewer
  3. Azerbaijan have utilized a five-man defensive shape in their opening group game
  4. Lithuania kept a clean sheet in their sole away group fixture against Liechtenstein
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Azerbaijan at homeLithuania away
—
Played
1
—
W-D-L
1-0-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
20%
History

Head-to-head

0
Azerbaijan
2
Draws
0
Lithuania

all 2 of the last meetings between these two ended level.

  • 2026-09-27Lithuania1-1Azerbaijan
  • 2019-03-25Azerbaijan0-0Lithuania
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Total Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
74%
Confidence

The recent 1-1 draw between the two sides on September 27 highlights how closely matched they are. Azerbaijan have seen four of their last five matches stay under the 2.5 goal mark, while Lithuania's recent encounters also feature low-scoring outcomes including a 1-0 loss to Estonia and a 1-1 draw with Latvia. Both teams have regularly deployed a 5-4-1 system, which tends to compress midfield spaces and limit high-probability chances.

Explore

More from BetGenius

Understand these picks

Our previous calls on this fixture

Teams around them in the table

All UEFA Nations League predictions →

Published October 4, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.