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Tue 6 Oct · 19:45

Croatia vs Spain prediction

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Round: League A - 4
Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split
Referee: Erik Lambrechts

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Croatia

30Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -9 goal difference

Spain

94Excellent

Last 5 matches · 5W-0D-0L · +9 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Match Winner

Spain to win

BetGenius backs Spain to win (Match Winner) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

74%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Croatia host Spain in League A of the UEFA Nations League looking to steady themselves after a difficult run of results. The hosts have lost two consecutive group fixtures, conceding 11 goals across those matches, including a 4-1 defeat away to Spain on 2026-09-29 and a 7-0 home loss against England on 2026-10-03.

Spain arrive in dominant form, sitting on three wins from three matches in the competition with 10 goals scored and four conceded. Having already posted high-scoring victories over England, Croatia, and Czechia, the visitors have shown consistent attacking output across every round of the campaign.

Given the recent 4-1 meeting between the sides and Croatia's defensive record of 12 goals conceded in three group games, Spain hold a strong advantage heading into this contest.

Analysis

Key factors

Spain have won all three Nations League group fixtures, scoring 10 goals in total.
Croatia have conceded 12 goals in three group matches, averaging 4.0 goals conceded per game.
Spain defeated Croatia 4-1 in their previous group meeting on 2026-09-29.
Croatia suffered a 7-0 home defeat against England in their most recent match on 2026-10-03.
Spain have scored at least three goals in all three Nations League matches this campaign.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Croatia at homeSpain away

Played

0-0-1

W-D-L

1-0-0

—

Scored /game

—

Conceded /game

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

80%

BTTS (last 5)

60%

100%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

60%

Players

Key players this season

Spain

Lamine Yamal4G
Mikel Merino3G
Dani Olmo3A
Álex Baena2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

2
Croatia: 1
Draws: 5
Spain

Spain have won 5 of the last 8 meetings, averaging 3.9 goals a game, 75% went over 2.5.

2026-09-29Spain4-1Croatia
2024-06-15Spain3-0Croatia
2023-06-18Croatia0-0Spain
2021-06-28Croatia3-5Spain
2018-11-15Croatia3-2Spain

BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON

Match Winner

Spain to win

74%

Confidence

Spain enter with a perfect record in the group stage, winning all three matches while scoring an average of 3.3 goals per game. Their recent 4-1 victory over Croatia on 2026-09-29 highlighted the gap between the sides. Croatia have conceded 12 goals across their three group matches, averaging 4.0 goals against per fixture, and come off a heavy 7-0 defeat against England. Spain's attacking efficiency, led by Lamine Yamal with three goals, makes an away victory the most probable outcome.

Explore

Croatia vs Spain prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

Spain

Head-to-head

Our record in UEFA Nations League

1 published market

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