BetGenius

Derby vs Birmingham prediction

Checking status…
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 12, 11:30 AM
Round
Regular Season - 7
Venue
Pride Park, Derby

Recent form

Derby
32Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-1D-3L · -5 goal difference

Birmingham
39Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-2D-2L · -5 goal difference

Our verdict

Solid
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Birmingham or Draw
Confidence70%

BetGenius backs Birmingham or Draw (Double Chance) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Derby enter this Championship encounter sitting 22nd in the table after a difficult start to the campaign that has yielded four defeats from their opening six league fixtures. The Rams have found positive results hard to come by on home soil, registering one draw and two defeats in three home matches while conceding six goals and scoring only two.

Birmingham occupy 15th place with seven points from their six games, having proved tough to break down despite a high volume of draws. With only one defeat in six league outings and a positive away record of one victory, one draw, and one loss, the visitors will look to capitalise on Derby's defensive vulnerabilities and mounting absentee list.

Derby are coping with a lengthy injury report that includes P. Agyemang, R. Brewster, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, C. Morris, D. Murkin, and L. Travis, which limits their tactical depth. Birmingham also miss M. Leonard, D. Gray, and T. Gardner-Hickman, but their steady run of picking up points across most fixtures gives them a slight edge in stability heading into this clash.

Key factors

  • Derby are winless in their three home league matches this season, recording one draw and two defeats.
  • Birmingham have suffered just one defeat in their six Championship matches so far, picking up four draws and one win.
  • Derby are missing numerous squad members through injury, including P. Agyemang, R. Brewster, and C. Forsyth.
  • Derby have conceded 11 goals in six league matches, averaging 1.8 goals conceded per game overall.

Team news

Derby

  • P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
  • R. BrewsterInjury
  • M. ClarkeCalf Injury
  • C. ForsythKnee Injury
  • C. MorrisCalf Injury
  • D. MurkinHamstring Injury
  • L. TravisLeg Injury
  • F. BilbijaInactive

Birmingham

  • T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
  • M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
  • D. GrayInjury
  • M. BirdInactive
  • J. E. Solis RomeroInactive

Statistical comparison

Derby at home vs Birmingham away
3
Played
3
0-1-2
W-D-L
1-1-1
0.7
Scored /game
1
2
Conceded /game
1
Clean sheets
Failed to score
40%
BTTS (last 5)
100%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 1.7 goals per game (Derby at home plus Birmingham away).

Key players this season

Derby

  • B. Clark2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
12Watford6-18
13Southampton6+77
14Wrexham6+27
15Birmingham607
16Stoke City6-17
17Portsmouth5-16
18Blackburn6-25
19Lincoln5-25
20Cardiff6-34
21Bolton6-64
22DerbyRelegation - League One6-64
23BurnleyRelegation - League One6-63
24PrestonRelegation - League One6-63

Head-to-head

Full record →
Derby
5
Draws
3
Birmingham
2

Derby have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.3 goals a game, both teams scored in 70% of them.

  • 2026-03-21Derby 1-0 Birmingham
  • 2025-12-26Birmingham 1-1 Derby
  • 2022-01-30Derby 2-2 Birmingham
  • 2021-09-10Birmingham 2-0 Derby
  • 2021-04-24Derby 1-2 Birmingham

Our record in Championship

65%55 won from 85 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

1 published market

Featured
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Birmingham or Draw
Confidence70%

Derby have struggled for traction this season, losing four of their six league fixtures and remaining winless at home with two defeats and a draw. Their defensive record at Pride Park has seen them concede an average of 2.0 goals per game, compounded by a long list of injured regulars. Birmingham have lost only once in six Championship outings, drawing four times and securing a victory at Wrexham. While Birmingham do not win frequently away from home, their resilience makes them capable of avoiding defeat against an out-of-form Derby side.

More from BetGenius

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Published September 11, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.