BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 11
Venue
Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Referee
Oliver Langford, England
Form

Recent form

Derby
22Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference

Stoke City
71Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +3 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Stoke City or Draw

BetGenius backs Stoke City or Draw (Double Chance) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

75%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Derby enter this Championship encounter languishing in 23rd place, having secured just one win from their opening ten league fixtures. The Rams have struggled for momentum at Pride Park, where they remain winless across five home outings with two draws and three defeats. Compounding their on-pitch difficulties is a lengthy injury list that includes key defensive personnel such as Craig Forsyth, Matt Clarke, and goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterstrom.

Stoke City arrive in far more encouraging shape, occupying eighth position and sitting within the play-off picture on 16 points. The Potters have shown sharp attacking consistency throughout the campaign, having scored in every single league match played so far. Despite a recent narrow 3-2 home reverse against Middlesbrough, their away record remains solid with two victories and a draw from five trips.

While Derby boast an encouraging historical record against Stoke on home turf, current form and squad condition tell a contrasting story. Stoke's reliable finishing and Derby's recurring defensive vulnerabilities make the visitors well positioned to leave Pride Park with at least a share of the points.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Derby are winless at home in the Championship this season, taking two points from five matches at Pride Park.
  2. Stoke City have scored in all ten league fixtures this season, failing to score zero times.
  3. Derby are missing several key players through injury, including Matt Clarke, Craig Forsyth, Derry Murkin, and Jacob Widell Zetterstrom.
  4. Stoke have taken seven points from five away matches, winning twice and drawing once on the road.
Availability

Team news

Derby

  • P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
  • M. ClarkeCalf Injury
  • C. ForsythKnee Injury
  • S. LangasInjury
  • D. MurkinHamstring Injury
  • C. TaylorInjury
  • J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury
  • E. CashinInactive
  • M. JohnstonInactive

Stoke City

  • A. AmpahKnee Injury
  • E. BocatInjury
  • A. CresswellKnee Injury
  • S. GallagherInjury
  • S. IngelssonMuscle Injury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Derby at homeStoke City away
6
Played
6
0-2-4
W-D-L
3-1-2
0.7
Scored /game
1.3
1.7
Conceded /game
1.7
0%
Clean sheets
17%
50%
Failed to score
0%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 2 goals per game (Derby at home plus Stoke City away).

Players

Key players this season

Stoke City

  • E. Galbraith3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
3MiddlesbroughPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+622
4BirminghamPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)11+920
5West BromPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+320
6Stoke CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+219
7WolvesPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+318
8SouthamptonPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)11+1117
9QPR11+317
20Watford11-911
21Norwich11-49
22BurnleyRelegation - League One11-58
23DerbyRelegation - League One11-116
24PrestonRelegation - League One11-154
History

Head-to-head

4
Derby
2
Draws
4
Stoke City

the last 10 meetings are split 4-4 with 2 drawn, averaging 2.0 goals a game.

  • 2026-10-17Derby0-1Stoke City
  • 2026-04-06Derby2-0Stoke City
  • 2025-08-09Stoke City3-1Derby
  • 2025-05-03Derby0-0Stoke City
  • 2024-11-02Stoke City2-1Derby
BetGenius

Our record in Championship

63%131 won from 207 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Stoke City or Draw
75%
Confidence

Derby have failed to win any of their five home league matches this season, suffering three defeats and conceding nine goals. In contrast, Stoke City sit eighth in the table and have scored in all ten of their Championship fixtures, averaging 1.4 goals per away game. With Derby missing numerous squad members including Widell Zetterstrom, Clarke, Forsyth, and Murkin, Stoke have a clear advantage in depth and form to claim at least a point.

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Published October 15, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.