BetGenius

Derby vs Swansea prediction

Checking status…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 29, 11:30 AM
Round
Regular Season - 3
Venue
Pride Park, Derby
Referee
David Webb, England

Recent form

Derby
32Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-1D-3L · -5 goal difference

Swansea
76Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-2D-0L · +6 goal difference

Our verdict

Solid
Market
Both Teams to Score
Pick
Yes
Confidence68%

BetGenius backs Yes (Both Teams to Score) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Derby County welcome Swansea City to Pride Park in round three of the Championship season, seeking their first league victory. The Rams sit 16th in the table with one point from their opening two fixtures, having drawn 2-2 at home to Cardiff after a 2-1 defeat at Charlton. Defensive vulnerabilities have been evident early on, with Derby conceding four goals in two matches while also dealing with injury absences including Sammie Szmodics, Matt Clarke, Danny Murkin, and Patrick Agyemang.

Swansea have enjoyed a solid start under their current campaign, collecting four points from their opening two games to sit ninth in the standings. Following an impressive 2-1 away victory at Stoke City, the Swans played out a disciplined 0-0 draw at home against Sheffield United. Despite missing Cameron Burgess and Goncalo Franco through injury, their defensive organisation has proved reliable, conceding just one goal across their two league outings.

Head-to-head encounters between the two clubs have historically been evenly matched, with four wins apiece and two draws across their last ten meetings. However, with Derby struggling to keep clean sheets and Swansea demonstrating effective form on the road, the visitors appear well positioned to take positive value from this clash.

Key factors

  • Derby have conceded exactly two goals in both of their Championship matches this season (2-1 loss at Charlton, 2-2 draw with Cardiff).
  • Swansea are unbeaten through two league rounds (W1, D1), notably winning 2-1 away at Stoke City.
  • Derby are contending with multiple fitness issues, with Sammie Szmodics, Matt Clarke, Danny Murkin, and Patrick Agyemang all sidelined.
  • Derby have seen both teams score in each of their last four matches across all competitions.
  • The 10-game head-to-head record is balanced at four wins each and two draws, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Team news

Derby

  • P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
  • D. MurkinHamstring Injury
  • L. TravisInjury
  • M. ClarkeCalf Injury
  • C. ForsythInactive
  • C. MorrisInactive

Swansea

  • C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
  • G. FrancoAnkle Injury
  • R. StewartInjury

Statistical comparison

Derby at home vs Swansea away
2
Played
2
0-1-1
W-D-L
2-0-0
Scored /game
Conceded /game
Clean sheets
Failed to score
40%
BTTS (last 5)
20%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Key players this season

Derby

  • B. Clark2A

Swansea

  • Eom Ji-Sung2G · 2A
  • A. Idah2G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1West HamPromotion - Premier League6+511
2SwanseaPromotion - Premier League6+411
3MiddlesbroughPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)5+310
4QPRPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)5+310
5Bristol CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)5+210
18Blackburn6-25
19Lincoln5-25
20Cardiff6-34
21Derby5-54
22BoltonRelegation - League One6-64
23BurnleyRelegation - League One6-63
24PrestonRelegation - League One6-63

Head-to-head

Full record →
Derby
4
Draws
1
Swansea
5

Swansea have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-08-29Derby 0-3 Swansea
  • 2026-02-14Derby 2-0 Swansea
  • 2025-11-25Swansea 1-2 Derby
  • 2025-04-05Swansea 1-0 Derby
  • 2024-11-27Derby 1-2 Swansea

Our record in Championship

63%52 won from 82 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

3 published markets

Combo BetLOST
Market
Both Teams to Score
Pick
Yes
Confidence68%

Derby have found the net in both of their Championship fixtures this season (scoring three goals in total) but have also conceded two goals in each match without keeping a clean sheet. With Derby's last four matches across all competitions seeing both teams find the net, and Swansea having already scored two on the road at Stoke, both sides possess strong pathways to get on the scoresheet.

Combo BetWON
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Swansea or Draw
Confidence74%

Swansea enter this fixture in positive league form, taking four points from their opening two fixtures including a 2-1 away win at Stoke City. In contrast, Derby have yet to secure a win, picking up one point from two matches while conceding two goals in each game. Backing Swansea in the double chance market provides a solid hedge against Derby's defensive instability and current injury list.

FeaturedLOST
Market
Combo Bet
Pick
Swansea or Draw + Yes
Confidence68%

Swansea or Draw — 74% confidence

Swansea enter this fixture in positive league form, taking four points from their opening two fixtures including a 2-1 away win at Stoke City. In contrast, Derby have yet to secure a win, picking up one point from two matches while conceding two goals in each game. Backing Swansea in the double chance market provides a solid hedge against Derby's defensive instability and current injury list.

Yes — 68% confidence

Derby have found the net in both of their Championship fixtures this season (scoring three goals in total) but have also conceded two goals in each match without keeping a clean sheet. With Derby's last four matches across all competitions seeing both teams find the net, and Swansea having already scored two on the road at Stoke, both sides possess strong pathways to get on the scoresheet.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and both teams to score), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

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Published August 27, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.