BetGenius
Round
Semi-finals
Venue
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee
F. Tello
Form

Recent form

Fluminense
44Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · +2 goal difference

Palmeiras
70Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +6 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Palmeiras or Draw

BetGenius backs Palmeiras or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Palmeiras arrive in Rio de Janeiro with stronger recent form, recording three wins, a draw and only one loss in their last five matches, while Fluminense have struggled, managing two wins against three defeats. Palmeiras also boast a higher goals‑for average (1.6) and a tighter defence (0.8 goals conceded per game) compared with Fluminense’s 1.2 and 1.0 respectively.

Fluminense’s home record is solid – three wins, one draw and one loss at the Maracanã with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded – but they are missing several key players through injury, including Alisson and G. Cano. Palmeiras are only missing one injured player, Jefte, limiting the impact on their line‑up.

Head‑to‑head meetings have been fairly balanced, but the most recent encounter saw Fluminense win 3‑2 at home. Both sides have been involved in BTTS outcomes in 60 % of their meetings and the average total goals per game sits around 2.1, suggesting a goal‑rich semi‑final is plausible.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Palmeiras have won 3 of their last 5 matches, Fluminense only 2
  2. Palmeiras average 1.6 goals per game versus Fluminense 1.2
  3. Fluminense missing four injured players, Palmeiras missing only one
  4. Both teams have been involved in BTTS outcomes in 60% of their meetings
  5. Recent head‑to‑head favours Fluminense at home but overall record is balanced
Availability

Team news

Fluminense

  • AlissonHip Injury
  • John KennedyKnee Injury
  • Matheus ReisKnee Injury
  • J. SavarinoYellow Cards
  • MartinelliInactive

Palmeiras

  • JefteKnee Injury
  • Andreas PereiraRed Card
  • J. PiquerezYellow Cards
  • Vitor RoqueInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Fluminense at homePalmeiras away
16
Played
16
11-3-2
W-D-L
8-6-2
1.8
Scored /game
1.6
1
Conceded /game
0.8
31%
Clean sheets
50%
6%
Failed to score
19%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Fluminense at home plus Palmeiras away).

Players

Key players this season

Palmeiras

  • J. López4G · 4A
  • J. Arias3G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

History

Head-to-head

5
Fluminense
1
Draws
4
Palmeiras

Fluminense have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game.

  • 2026-10-22Palmeiras0-1Fluminense
  • 2026-10-15Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
  • 2026-08-15Fluminense3-2Palmeiras
  • 2026-02-26Palmeiras2-1Fluminense
  • 2025-11-23Palmeiras0-0Fluminense
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Palmeiras or Draw
68%
Confidence

Palmeiras’ superior recent performance and better scoring record give them a clear edge, while Fluminense’s home advantage and recent head‑to‑head win keep the draw within reach. The combination of Palmeiras’ stronger form, limited injuries and both teams’ propensity to both score supports a double‑chance on Palmeiras or a draw, with an expectation of at least three goals in the match.

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Published October 13, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.