BetGenius
Round
League A - 4
Venue
Stade de France, Paris
Referee
Nick Walsh
Form

Recent form

France
55Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference

Belgium
63Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +6 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Combo Bet
Under 2.5 Goals + France or Draw

BetGenius backs Under 2.5 Goals + France or Draw (Combo Bet) at 72% confidence — a solid call.

72%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

France host Belgium in League A of the UEFA Nations League sitting top of their group with seven points from three matches. Didier Deschamps' side have built their campaign on defensive solidity, winning both of their recorded Nations League fixtures by a 1-0 scoreline, including an away victory against Belgium in late September.

Belgium occupy second place with six points after three games, having won twice and lost once. Domenico Tedesco's side bounced back from their home defeat against France with strong results elsewhere, but breaking down the French backline has repeatedly proven problematic in recent meetings.

Historical head-to-head records heavily favour the hosts, with France winning all six encounters between the nations dating back to 2018. With France yet to concede a goal in the competition and Belgium missing key personnel including Amadou Onana, the hosts hold the upper hand in a matchup that routinely produces tight, low-scoring contests.

Availability

Team news

France

  • W. SalibaBack Bruise

Team news last updated Jul 18 (98 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Belgium

  • A. OnanaCruciate Ligament Rupture
  • Z. DebastWound

Team news last updated Jul 10 (106 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

France at homeBelgium away
1
Played
1
0-1-0
W-D-L
1-0-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%
Players

Key players this season

France

  • M. Olise4G · 2A
  • R. Cherki2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1FrancePlay Offs: Quarter-finals4+510
2ItalyPlay Offs: Quarter-finals4+37
3BelgiumPossible Play-off4+16
4TürkiyePossible Play-off4-90
History

Head-to-head

6
France
0
Draws
0
Belgium

France have won 6 of the last 6 meetings, averaging 2.2 goals a game, only 33% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-09-28Belgium0-1France
  • 2024-10-14Belgium1-2France
  • 2024-09-09France2-0Belgium
  • 2024-07-01France1-0Belgium
  • 2021-10-07Belgium2-3France
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

5 published markets

1 locked — upgrade to unlock
Combo BetLOST
Combo Bet
Under 2.5 Goals + France or Draw
72%
Both must land · no better than

Under 2.5 Goals — 72% confidence

Four of the last six meetings between France and Belgium have finished with under 2.5 goals, including four separate 1-0 scorelines. France have conceded zero goals across their Nations League fixtures while averaging exactly one goal scored per match. With Belgium having failed to breach the French defence in their most recent encounter on 28 September, another low-scoring affair is probable.

France or Draw — 78% confidence

France enter this clash in commanding form against their neighbours, having won all six head-to-head encounters across major tournaments and the Nations League. Les Bleus have kept clean sheets in both of their group matches so far, showing complete defensive control. Backing France to avoid defeat accounts for both their winning streak against Belgium and the possibility of a shared point between the top two sides in the group.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Combo BetWON
Double Chance
France or Draw
78%
Confidence

France enter this clash in commanding form against their neighbours, having won all six head-to-head encounters across major tournaments and the Nations League. Les Bleus have kept clean sheets in both of their group matches so far, showing complete defensive control. Backing France to avoid defeat accounts for both their winning streak against Belgium and the possibility of a shared point between the top two sides in the group.

Combo BetLOST
Total Goals
Under 2.5 Goals
72%
Confidence

Four of the last six meetings between France and Belgium have finished with under 2.5 goals, including four separate 1-0 scorelines. France have conceded zero goals across their Nations League fixtures while averaging exactly one goal scored per match. With Belgium having failed to breach the French defence in their most recent encounter on 28 September, another low-scoring affair is probable.

GoalsWON
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
Confidence

France have maintained a disciplined defensive record without conceding in their first two group fixtures, while Belgium have scored five goals across three matches in the competition. The absence of key defensive personnel such as William Saliba for France, alongside Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast for Belgium, creates vulnerability that attackers like Michael Olise and Charles De Ketelaere can exploit. While the tight nature of recent meetings and France's two 1-0 wins argue against reaching three goals for Over 2.5, a match total of at least two goals aligns well with the offensive quality and table context.

Explore

More from BetGenius

Our previous calls on this fixture

Teams around them in the table

All UEFA Nations League predictions →

Published October 4, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.