BetGenius
Round
League A - 3
Venue
Stade de France, Paris
Referee
Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
Form

Recent form

France
55Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -2 goal difference

Italy
64Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +3 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
France or Draw

BetGenius backs France or Draw (Double Chance) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

74%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

France enter this UEFA Nations League fixture at the top of the group standings after securing consecutive 1-0 away victories against Belgium and Türkiye. With six points from their opening two matches, the French side has demonstrated defensive solidity, keeping clean sheets in both outings while maintaining a perfect start to the campaign.

Italy sit in third place with three points from their first two group fixtures. After suffering a 2-0 home defeat against Belgium, the Azzurri responded with a 4-1 away victory against Türkiye. Their attack showed efficiency on the road, but defensive concessions in both group games present an area of vulnerability.

With France now playing at home and holding the group lead, they carry solid momentum into this matchup. Italy have proven capable of scoring away from home, but facing a disciplined French backline that has yet to concede in the tournament will test their attacking output.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. France have won both of their group matches without conceding a single goal.
  2. Italy have conceded three goals across their two group fixtures.
  3. France top the group standings with six points from two games.
  4. The previous four head-to-head encounters are balanced with two wins for each nation.
Availability

Team news

France

  • W. SalibaBack Bruise

Team news last updated Jul 18 (98 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Italy

Team news unavailable for this fixture.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

France at homeItaly away
1
Played
2
0-1-0
W-D-L
1-1-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
20%
Players

Key players this season

France

  • M. Olise4G · 2A
  • R. Cherki2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1FrancePlay Offs: Quarter-finals4+510
2ItalyPlay Offs: Quarter-finals4+37
3BelgiumPossible Play-off4+16
4TürkiyePossible Play-off4-90
History

Head-to-head

2
France
0
Draws
2
Italy

the last 4 meetings are split 2-2 with 0 drawn, averaging 3.5 goals a game, both teams scored in 75% of them.

  • 2024-11-17Italy1-3France
  • 2024-09-06France1-3Italy
  • 2018-06-01France3-1Italy
  • 2008-06-17France0-2Italy
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
France or Draw
74%
Confidence

France have established strong form in the group stage with two wins from two matches, scoring two goals and conceding zero. Italy have had mixed results, losing 2-0 to Belgium before securing a 4-1 victory over Türkiye. France have maintained tight defensive control across both competitive fixtures, which provides a high probability of securing at least a point on home soil.

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Published October 1, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.