Genoa or Draw — 75% confidence
Genoa demonstrated their scoring potential at home in this competition with a 4-1 victory in the previous round and have never lost to Sudtirol in their previous head-to-head meetings, winning one and drawing one. While Genoa have suffered three consecutive defeats coming into this match, their home record in cup play and overall squad strength give them the edge to at least avoid defeat across ninety minutes against lower-tier opposition.
Under 2.5 Goals — 68% confidence
Both previous head-to-head fixtures between Genoa and Sudtirol finished with under 2.5 goals, ending in 2-0 and 0-0 scorelines. Furthermore, Genoa have struggled for goals in recent weeks, failing to score in three of their last five matches, while Sudtirol operate with a compact five-man defensive line that has kept clean sheets against Catanzaro and Virtus Entella.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.