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Sun 6 Sept · 17:15

Qarabag vs Araz prediction

Round
Regular Season - 4
Venue
Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Referee
C. Calilov
Form

Recent form

Qarabag
61Average

Last 4 matches · 2W-1D-1L · -1 goal difference

Araz
15Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -5 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Match Winner
Qarabag to win

BetGenius backs Qarabag to win (Match Winner) at 86% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

86%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Qarabag enter round four of the Premyer Liqa campaign with a perfect start to their domestic season, having claimed victories in both of their opening two league matches. With four goals scored and just one conceded, the hosts sit third in the table with games in hand, showing their usual dominance on the domestic front.

Araz, on the other hand, have endured a difficult start to their league campaign. Sitting in eleventh position with just one point from three matches, they are yet to score a single goal this season, having drawn once and lost twice while conceding six goals, including a 5-0 defeat in their only away fixture so far.

Historical meetings between these two sides heavily favour the hosts. Qarabag have won all five previous encounters hosted at their ground against Araz, including emphatic scorelines of 6-0 and 5-1 in recent meetings. Given the gulf in early-season form and offensive output, Qarabag hold a substantial advantage heading into this contest.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Qarabag have won both of their Premyer Liqa fixtures this season, scoring four goals and conceding only one.
  2. Araz have failed to score in all three of their league matches so far, collecting just one point.
  3. Araz suffered a 5-0 defeat in their only away league match of the campaign against Neftchi Baku.
  4. Qarabag have a 100% winning record at home against Araz across five previous encounters, with three of the last four overall meetings ending in 6-0, 5-1, and 5-0 victories for Qarabag.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Qarabag at homeAraz away
2
Played
4
2-0-0
W-D-L
0-0-4
—
Scored /game
1
—
Conceded /game
3
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
—
BTTS (last 5)
80%
—
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%
Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1Sabah FAPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)7+1719
2Neftchi BakuPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)8+1317
3QarabagPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)7+717
4Zira9015
5Kapaz8014
6Turan8+214
9Qabala9-117
10Imisli FK8-67
11Safa BakuPremier League (Relegation)9-123
12ArazRelegation - I Liqa9-122
History

Head-to-head

9
Qarabag
0
Draws
1
Araz

Qarabag have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.9 goals a game, 70% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-09-06Qarabag3-2Araz
  • 2026-03-08Qarabag6-0Araz
  • 2025-12-14Qarabag5-1Araz
  • 2025-09-21Araz0-5Qarabag
  • 2025-05-11Qarabag2-0Araz
BetGenius

Our record in Premyer Liqa

72%28 won from 39 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Match Winner
Qarabag to win
86%
Confidence

Qarabag hold a decisive advantage across all key metrics. They have won both of their league matches this season, while Araz have failed to score across three rounds and conceded five goals in their lone away fixture. Furthermore, Qarabag have won each of their five home head-to-head fixtures against Araz, scoring at least two goals in every encounter and recording heavy victories of 6-0 and 5-1 in recent clashes.

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Published September 4, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.