QPR have a stronger points tally, better goal difference and a lower goals‑against average than Derby. Their recent form includes three wins in nine games, while Derby have managed just one win and three losses in the same span. Derby’s injury list removes several attacking options, reducing their chances of scoring. Head‑to‑head data shows a low scoring pattern, with only 40% of the ten meetings exceeding 2.5 goals. These factors combine to make a QPR win or draw the most probable outcome, while the total goals are expected to stay under 2.5.
- Round
- Regular Season - 10
- Venue
- Loftus Road, London
- Referee
- Matthew Corlett, England
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 1W-3D-1L · 0 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs QPR or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
QPR sit sixth in the Championship with 14 points and a positive goal difference, while Derby are down in 23rd with just six points and a -7 goal difference. QPR have been hard to beat recently, recording three wins, one loss and five draws in their last nine games, and have kept two clean sheets overall. Derby have struggled to find the net, scoring only eight goals in nine matches and conceding 15, with a recent run of three defeats in their last five outings.
At the home ground, QPR’s record is modest (1‑2‑1) but their away form is strong (2‑3‑0). Derby have failed to win at home all season and have only one win on the road. Both sides have several absences, but Derby are missing six players through injury, including key attackers, which further limits their scoring threat.
Head‑to‑head meetings have been tight, with QPR winning five of the last ten, Derby four and one draw. The most recent clash saw Derby win 3‑2 away, yet the overall goal average in these fixtures is 2.3 per game and only 40% have gone over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency toward lower‑scoring affairs.
Considering the league positions, defensive records and the limited attacking options for Derby, QPR are the clear favorites to avoid defeat, and the match is likely to finish under 2.5 goals.
Key factors
- QPR sit sixth with 14 points and a +3 goal difference, Derby are 23rd with 6 points and –7 goal difference
- QPR have a stronger defensive record (0.9 goals conceded per game) versus Derby’s 1.7
- Derby are missing six injured players, including several attackers, limiting their goal threat
- Recent head‑to‑head shows low‑scoring games (average 2.3 goals, only 40% over 2.5)
- Derby’s recent form is poor (1 win, 3 losses in last five), QPR have been more resilient
Team news
QPR
- I. ChairMuscle Injury
- A. S. MbengueKnee Injury
- T. LampteyInactive
- R. BurrellInactive
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- S. LangasInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- C. TaylorInjury
- J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury
- E. CashinInactive
- M. JohnstonInactive
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 2.6 goals per game (QPR at home plus Derby away).
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke CityPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | WolvesPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | SouthamptonPromotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals) | 11 | +11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | BurnleyRelegation - League One | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | DerbyRelegation - League One | 11 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | PrestonRelegation - League One | 11 | -15 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 6
- QPR
- 0
- Draws
- 4
- Derby
QPR have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.6 goals a game.
- 2026-10-14QPR4-1Derby
- 2026-04-25QPR2-3Derby
- 2025-10-25Derby1-0QPR
- 2025-02-14QPR4-0Derby
- 2024-10-05Derby2-0QPR
Our record in Championship
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.1 published market
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Banker: Banker predictions · What a banker bet is · Banker record
Other Championship predictions
Teams around them in the table
Published October 12, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

