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Mon 28 Sept · 19:45

Türkiye vs Italy prediction

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Round: League A - 2
Venue: Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Bursa
Referee: Michael Oliver, England

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Türkiye

17Very poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-0D-4L · -7 goal difference

Italy

64Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +3 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals

Over 1.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.

70%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Türkiye host Italy in League A of the UEFA Nations League, with both nations seeking their first points of the campaign after opening matchday defeats. Türkiye suffered a narrow 1-0 home loss against France, while Italy fell 2-0 at home in their group opener. With Belgium and France setting the early pace at the top of the section, both sides face pressure to secure a positive result to steer clear of the relegation places.

Türkiye have experienced mixed results across their recent outings, picking up victories over the USA (3-2) and Venezuela (2-1) alongside defeats to Paraguay (0-1), Australia (0-2), and France (0-1). While they have found the net in high-scoring encounters, finding consistent offensive output against top-tier European opposition remains an ongoing challenge.

Italy arrive looking to rebound from their 2-0 opening defeat. In previous international fixtures earlier in the year, the Azzurri recorded low-margin away victories against Greece (1-0) and Luxembourg (1-0), following a 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina and a 2-0 win over Northern Ireland. Both teams will need to take a more proactive approach in attack to make ground in the group standings.

Analysis

Key factors

Both teams sit on zero points after losing their Nations League openers, with Türkiye falling 1-0 to France and Italy losing 2-0.
Three of Türkiye's last five matches have produced two or more goals, including scorelines of 3-2, 2-1, and 0-2.
Italy's recent matches include scorelines of 0-2, 1-1, 2-0, and 1-4, indicating consistent multigoal match totals.
Two of the last three head-to-head encounters produced three or more goals, including a 3-2 Italian win in 2022 and a 3-0 Italian win in 2021.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Türkiye at homeItaly away

Played

0-0-2

W-D-L

1-1-0

—

Scored /game

—

Conceded /game

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

40%

BTTS (last 5)

40%

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

20%

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FrancePlay Offs: Quarter-finals	4	+5	10
2	ItalyPlay Offs: Quarter-finals	4	+3	7
3	BelgiumPossible Play-off	4	+1	6
4	TürkiyePossible Play-off	4	-9	0

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

0
Türkiye: 1
Draws: 3
Italy

Italy have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, averaging 3.3 goals a game, 75% went over 2.5.

2026-09-28Türkiye1-4Italy
2024-06-04Italy0-0Türkiye
2022-03-29Türkiye2-3Italy
2021-06-11Türkiye0-3Italy

BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Nations League

69%123 won from 177 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

2 published markets

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GoalsWON

Total Goals

Over 1.5 Goals

70%

Confidence

Both teams enter this fixture with zero points after opening defeats, creating a dynamic where neither side can afford to sit back passively. Türkiye have seen at least two goals scored in three of their last five matches, including a 3-2 win against the USA and a 2-1 victory over Venezuela. Italy's campaign opened with two goals conceded in a 2-0 loss, and previous fixtures also produced scorelines of 1-1, 2-0, and 1-4. While a line of 2.5 goals appears demanding given recent 1-0 scorelines across both teams' schedules, reaching at least two goals fits the competitive context and previous high-scoring competitive meetings between the two sides.

BankerWON

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