BetGenius
Round
Semi-finals
Venue
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Referee
Jesus Valenzuela
Form

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama
40Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Boca Juniors
64Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +4 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Vasco DA Gama or Draw

BetGenius backs Vasco DA Gama or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Vasco da Gama enter the semi‑final with solid home form, scoring 1.7 goals per game and conceding only 0.3 on their own turf. Their recent five matches include a 1‑0 away win over Boca Juniors, showing they can keep a clean sheet against this opponent. Boca Juniors have been strong away, averaging two goals per visit, but have conceded 0.7 per game and kept just one clean sheet in three away fixtures. Both sides have relatively low-scoring recent meetings – the only head‑to‑head encounter ended 1‑0, and the sample shows no matches over 2.5 goals. Vasco also have several players listed as unavailable, while Boca have a full squad available.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Vasco have the best home defensive record in the competition (0.3 goals conceded per game)
  2. Boca’s away scoring average (2.0) is offset by a 0.7 goals‑against average
  3. The only head‑to‑head meeting was a 1‑0 win for Vasco
  4. Both teams’ recent matches have featured few goals, with 0% of recorded games over 2.5 goals
Availability

Team news

Vasco DA Gama

  • Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
  • Cauan BarrosInactive
  • C. CuestaInactive

Boca Juniors

Team news unavailable for this fixture.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Vasco DA Gama at homeBoca Juniors away
15
Played
3
7-3-5
W-D-L
1-2-0
1.4
Scored /game
2
1.2
Conceded /game
0.7
20%
Clean sheets
—
33%
Failed to score
—
40%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Combined scoring rate: 3.4 goals per game (Vasco DA Gama at home plus Boca Juniors away).

Players

Key players this season

Vasco DA Gama

  • Adson5G · 3A
  • J. Rodríguez3A

Boca Juniors

  • M. Merentiel4G
  • S. Villa3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

History

Head-to-head

1
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
1
Boca Juniors

the last 2 meetings are split 1-1 with 0 drawn.

  • 2026-10-21Vasco DA Gama1-3Boca Juniors
  • 2026-10-14Boca Juniors0-1Vasco DA Gama
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Vasco DA Gama or Draw
68%
Confidence

Vasco’s home defensive record (5 clean sheets in 6 games) and Boca’s modest away defensive performance suggest the home side is unlikely to lose. The recent 1‑0 victory for Vasco over Boca reinforces this trend. While Boca can score, the overall low‑scoring pattern in their meetings and the under‑2.5 goal trend lower the chance of a high‑scoring draw, making a home‑or‑draw outcome the safest bet.

Explore

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Published October 19, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.