BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 32
Venue
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania
Referee
Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil
Form

Recent form

Vila Nova
83Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-1D-0L · +6 goal difference

Cuiaba
46Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Vila Nova or Draw

BetGenius backs Vila Nova or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

76%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Vila Nova welcome Cuiaba to the Estadio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga sitting atop Serie B with 57 points from 31 matches. The league leaders enter this contest in sharp form, having recorded four victories and a draw across their last five fixtures while conceding just a single goal during that stretch. Their dominance at home has been the foundation of their campaign, boasting twelve wins, two draws, and only one defeat in fifteen home league matches with 31 goals scored and 11 conceded.

Cuiaba occupy tenth place with 46 points and remain one of the division's most compact units, having allowed only 25 goals across 31 fixtures. However, their offensive output on the road has been modest, producing 13 goals in 15 away matches and failing to score in eight of those trips. While they have proven difficult to beat with 13 draws overall, their recent away outing resulted in a 3-0 defeat at CRB.

Given Vila Nova's exceptional home defensive stability, conceding an average of 0.7 goals per game in front of their supporters, and Cuiaba's low-scoring profile on the road, this clash projects to be a tightly contested affair where the hosts hold the upper hand in form and territorial control.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Vila Nova have lost only one of their 15 home league matches this season, winning 12.
  2. Vila Nova have kept four clean sheets in their last five league matches, conceding only one goal in that run.
  3. Cuiaba have failed to score in 8 of their 15 away fixtures in Serie B.
  4. Cuiaba have conceded only 25 goals in 31 league matches, keeping 13 total clean sheets.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Vila Nova at homeCuiaba away
16
Played
16
12-3-1
W-D-L
4-7-5
1.9
Scored /game
0.8
0.7
Conceded /game
1
50%
Clean sheets
31%
13%
Failed to score
56%
0%
BTTS (last 5)
0%
0%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Vila Nova at home plus Cuiaba away).

Players

Key players this season

Vila Nova

  • André Luís9G
  • Janderson8A
  • Marquinhos Gabriel7A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1Vila NovaPromotion34+1562
2NovorizontinoPromotion34+3161
3JuventudePromotion Play-offs34+1861
4Fortaleza ECPromotion Play-offs34+1260
8Sport Recife34+851
9Goias34-649
10Operario-PR34-248
11Cuiaba34+547
12São Bernardo34+946
13Botafogo SP34044
14Athletic Club34+144
History

Head-to-head

3
Vila Nova
2
Draws
5
Cuiaba

Cuiaba have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-06-14Cuiaba1-0Vila Nova
  • 2025-09-24Vila Nova2-2Cuiaba
  • 2025-05-27Cuiaba1-0Vila Nova
  • 2024-05-11Cuiaba4-2Vila Nova
  • 2024-04-17Vila Nova2-0Cuiaba
BetGenius

Our record in Serie B

79%27 won from 34 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Vila Nova or Draw
76%
Confidence

Vila Nova have been formidable on home turf this season, suffering just one defeat in fifteen Serie B home fixtures with twelve victories. They are also unbeaten in their last five league games overall, keeping four clean sheets. Cuiaba have won only four of their fifteen away league encounters and have drawn six, while failing to find the net in over half of their away matches. With Cuiaba's solid defensive record making a shared point possible, backing Vila Nova to win or draw covers the most probable outcomes alongside an expectation of fewer than three total goals.

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Published October 7, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.