BetGenius

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia prediction

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Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga
Kickoff
Sun, Sep 6, 05:00 PM
Round
Regular Season - 5
Venue
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes
Referee
Gustavo Correia, Portugal

Recent form

Vitória SC
40Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · 0 goal difference

Casa Pia
6Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-0D-5L · -15 goal difference

Our verdict

Strong
Market
Total Goals
Pick
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence80%

BetGenius backs Under 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 80% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Vitória SC welcome bottom-placed Casa Pia to Guimarães in round 5 of the Primeira Liga. The hosts have three points from their opening fixtures, highlighted by a 1-0 home victory against Nacional and competitive outings despite narrow defeats to Sporting CP and SC Braga.

Casa Pia enter this contest enduring a difficult start to the campaign, having lost all four of their league matches without scoring a single goal. With 11 goals conceded and zero points on the board, the visitors sit 18th in the standings and face an uphill battle to establish offensive rhythm.

Head-to-head encounters between these two sides have historically been tight and low-scoring affairs. Across their nine recorded meetings, matches have never exceeded two goals, generating an average of just 0.89 goals per fixture. With Casa Pia struggling for goals and Vitória SC keeping things tight at home, another low-scoring game is likely.

Key factors

  • All nine historical meetings between Vitória SC and Casa Pia have stayed under 2.5 goals, averaging 0.89 goals per match.
  • Casa Pia have failed to score in all four of their Primeira Liga fixtures this season.
  • Vitória SC have conceded just one goal across their two home league matches this campaign.
  • Casa Pia have lost all four league fixtures and sit bottom of the standings with zero points.

Statistical comparison

Vitória SC at home vs Casa Pia away
2
Played
2
1-0-1
W-D-L
0-0-2
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
20%
BTTS (last 5)
20%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Key players this season

Vitória SC

  • Miguel Nogueira2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
8Maritimo5-27
9Estrela4+16
10Academico Viseu5-35
11Vitória SC5-24
12Nacional5-24
13Moreirense4-44
14Famalicao5-23
15Rio Ave5-93
16EstorilLiga Portugal (Relegation)5-52
17AlvercaRelegation - Liga Portugal 25-52
18Casa PiaRelegation - Liga Portugal 25-111

Head-to-head

Full record →
Vitória SC
2
Draws
4
Casa Pia
3

Casa Pia have won 3 of the last 9 meetings, averaging 0.9 goals a game, only 0% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-05-11Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia
  • 2025-12-28Casa Pia 0-0 Vitória SC
  • 2025-03-01Vitória SC 1-0 Casa Pia
  • 2024-09-28Casa Pia 1-1 Vitória SC
  • 2024-02-24Vitória SC 0-2 Casa Pia

Our record in Primeira Liga

82%23 won from 28 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Market
Total Goals
Pick
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence80%

Under 2.5 total goals is strongly supported by both recent form and head-to-head metrics. Casa Pia have failed to score across all four of their Primeira Liga matches this season, averaging 0 goals scored and conceding 1.5 per game away from home. Vitória SC have maintained compact scorelines at home, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match on their own turf. Furthermore, none of the nine previous meetings between these two clubs have produced three or more goals, with the head-to-head average sitting at just 0.89 goals per match.

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Published September 5, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.