Chicago Red Stars W

Houston Dash hold a 13-point cushion over Chicago Red Stars and decisively won the reverse fixture 5-0 in August 2026. Chicago have struggled across the entire season, losing 21 of their 28 matches and failing to win in 23 of them. The Red Stars have also conceded three goals in each of their last four matches while failing to score in 18 of 28 games overall. Houston have avoided defeat in half of their 28 matches, including six positive results away from home. Backing Houston to win or draw covers the most likely outcomes while accounting for their modest record of three wins in 14 away matches.

Chicago Red Stars have displayed severe defensive fragility throughout the season, conceding 66 goals in 28 matches for an average of 2.4 goals against per game, and 2.2 at home. Each of their last five matches has produced at least two goals, including four consecutive games in which they conceded three goals against Seattle Reign, Denver Summit, Gotham FC, and Washington Spirit. Houston Dash possess an established finishing threat in K. Rader, who has 10 goals, and Houston have contributed to scorelines of 1-2, 2-3, and 2-1 in three of their last four outings.

While the baseline for two goals is solid, pushing to the 2.5 line is not sufficiently supported by the data. Chicago have failed to score in 18 of their 28 matches this season, including nine home blanks, managing an average of just 0.8 goals per game at home and 0.6 overall. Meanwhile, Houston Dash average only 0.9 goals per match on their travels, scoring 13 in 14 away games. Their combined home and away scoring rates average 1.7 goals per match, and 60 percent of their last ten head-to-head meetings have stayed under 2.5 goals. Backing Over 1.5 fits the profile of Chicago consistently conceding multiple goals without depending on an unreliable Red Stars attack or a high away scoring output from Houston.

Denver Summit W hold a significant 18-point advantage in the standings over Chicago Red Stars W and scored six goals against them in their meeting earlier this season. Chicago have lost 19 of their 26 league matches and failed to score in 17 fixtures, making an away win or draw the most probable outcome.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W to win — 78% confidence

Gotham FC have won seven of 12 home matches and lost just once at home all season, collecting 51 points to lead the league. Chicago have lost 11 of their 13 away fixtures and managed only one away victory all season. Gotham also won the previous league encounter between these two sides 2-0 and possess a distinct advantage in both form and overall performance metrics.

No — 74% confidence

Chicago have scored only four goals in 13 away games this season, failing to score in nine of those matches. Gotham have registered seven clean sheets in 12 home fixtures, conceding at an average rate of just 0.6 goals per game. Their previous meeting in April also finished with a clean sheet in a 2-0 Gotham victory.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and both teams to score), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Chicago have scored only four goals in 13 away games this season, failing to score in nine of those matches. Gotham have registered seven clean sheets in 12 home fixtures, conceding at an average rate of just 0.6 goals per game. Their previous meeting in April also finished with a clean sheet in a 2-0 Gotham victory.

Gotham FC have won seven of 12 home matches and lost just once at home all season, collecting 51 points to lead the league. Chicago have lost 11 of their 13 away fixtures and managed only one away victory all season. Gotham also won the previous league encounter between these two sides 2-0 and possess a distinct advantage in both form and overall performance metrics.