Meistriliiga (Estonia)

FC Levadia Tallinn present an overwhelming advantage across league standings, recent form, and head-to-head history. Levadia sit top of the table on 62 points with only one loss all season, winning each of their last five matches while scoring 18 goals in that stretch. Kuressaare have suffered nine defeats in 13 away matches and have failed to win any of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against Levadia, losing nine of them. Levadia average 2.9 goals scored per home match while Kuressaare concede 1.8 per away game, making a home win the most probable outcome.

Paide have consistently held the upper hand in this match-up, winning eight of the last nine meetings against Tammeka, including four consecutive away wins at this venue. While Tammeka have shown solid form with four wins in their last five outings, Paide have demonstrated strong resilience on the road, avoiding defeat in 10 of their 13 away league matches. With Paide averaging 1.8 goals scored per away match and Tammeka finding the net regularly, backing Paide to win or draw represents the most probable path in a closely matched encounter.

Vaprus have avoided defeat in eight of their 13 home league matches this season, securing six victories and two draws. Laagri have struggled for consistency on the road, losing eight of their 12 away fixtures while conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Backing the home side to win or draw covers the most likely outcomes in a tightly contested fixture.

Over 2.5 Goals — 76% confidence

Goals are consistently seen in matches involving Nõmme United, who have conceded 61 times across 26 league matches without keeping a single clean sheet. Kalju Nomme average 2.2 goals per home fixture, and both meetings between the two sides this season comfortably cleared the 2.5 goal line with 7-1 and 3-1 scorelines.

Kalju Nomme or Draw — 78% confidence

Kalju Nomme have never lost to Nõmme United in six head-to-head encounters, winning four and drawing two. Although Kalju have suffered recent defeats against top-table sides, Nõmme United have lost eight of their 13 away league matches and sit 19 points behind their hosts.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Kalju Nomme have never lost to Nõmme United in six head-to-head encounters, winning four and drawing two. Although Kalju have suffered recent defeats against top-table sides, Nõmme United have lost eight of their 13 away league matches and sit 19 points behind their hosts.

Goals are consistently seen in matches involving Nõmme United, who have conceded 61 times across 26 league matches without keeping a single clean sheet. Kalju Nomme average 2.2 goals per home fixture, and both meetings between the two sides this season comfortably cleared the 2.5 goal line with 7-1 and 3-1 scorelines.

Flora Tallinn to win — 78% confidence

Flora Tallinn possess a 31-point advantage over Trans Narva in the standings and have won eight of their 12 away league matches this season. Trans Narva have lost 19 of their 26 league fixtures and remain winless in their last 10 meetings against Flora, failing to score in the last four consecutive encounters between the two clubs.

Over 2.5 Goals — 71% confidence

Trans Narva concede an average of 2.3 goals per game overall and have allowed 60 goals across 26 league matches. Flora Tallinn average 2.0 goals scored per match and their last five league games have all produced three or more goals. Additionally, seven of the last 10 head-to-head fixtures have surpassed the 2.5 goal mark, averaging 3.3 total goals.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Trans Narva concede an average of 2.3 goals per game overall and have allowed 60 goals across 26 league matches. Flora Tallinn average 2.0 goals scored per match and their last five league games have all produced three or more goals. Additionally, seven of the last 10 head-to-head fixtures have surpassed the 2.5 goal mark, averaging 3.3 total goals.

Flora Tallinn possess a 31-point advantage over Trans Narva in the standings and have won eight of their 12 away league matches this season. Trans Narva have lost 19 of their 26 league fixtures and remain winless in their last 10 meetings against Flora, failing to score in the last four consecutive encounters between the two clubs.

Laagri’s home record (1.8 goals scored per game, 5 clean sheets) and a favourable head‑to‑head trend at this ground give them a solid chance to pick up at least a point. Tammeka are in good form but have struggled to score on the road in recent games, which reduces the likelihood of a Laagri loss. The combination of Laagka’s home edge and Tammeka’s modest away attack supports a double‑chance on the home side. The same data set shows that 80 % of the last ten meetings produced over 2.5 goals, justifying an over‑2.5 total.

Direct encounters between these two clubs have consistently produced high goal tallies, with nine of their previous 10 head-to-head meetings finishing over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.5 goals per match. Levadia average 2.5 goals scored per away game, while Paide average 1.7 total goals per match in the league this season.

Both teams have scored in 70 percent of their last 10 head-to-head fixtures, including all three clashes played during 2026 with scorelines of 4-1, 3-1, and 2-2. Levadia have scored in every single league match this season, while Paide have failed to score in only two of their 24 Meistriliiga outings.

Levadia have been exceptionally resilient on the road, remaining undefeated through 13 away league fixtures with 11 victories and two draws. Paide have suffered three home defeats this season and were beaten comfortably in their two most recent clashes against Levadia across league and cup competitions. Backing Levadia to avoid defeat represents a strong probability given their 17-point lead over the hosts in the standings.

Flora Tallinn have taken 21 points from 13 home league games and enter the match with momentum after a 3-2 win against Tammeka. Kalju Nomme have struggled recently, losing their last three matches across all competitions. Backing Flora to take at least a point offers solid value in a derby where Flora have already won the previous league encounter this season.

Recent encounters between these two clubs have produced exceptionally high goal tallies, including 3-2 and 7-1 scorelines in 2026 league meetings, as well as a 3-2 cup encounter played on September 2. Nomme United have conceded 60 goals in 25 league matches with zero clean sheets recorded, allowing an average of 2.8 goals per match away from home. Vaprus also average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per home match, pointing towards another open contest that clears the 2.5 goal line.

Kuressaare or Draw — 78% confidence

Kuressaare have a clear advantage in points, recent form and head‑to‑head record, making a home win or at least a draw the most probable outcome. Their defensive solidity combined with Trans Narva’s poor scoring record supports a non‑loss for the hosts.

No — 66% confidence

Trans Narva have scored in only 12 of 25 games and Kuressaare have failed to score in 12 as well. The low scoring tendency of both sides makes a both‑teams‑to‑score "no" outcome more likely.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and both teams to score), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Kuressaare have a clear advantage in points, recent form and head‑to‑head record, making a home win or at least a draw the most probable outcome. Their defensive solidity combined with Trans Narva’s poor scoring record supports a non‑loss for the hosts.

Trans Narva have scored in only 12 of 25 games and Kuressaare have failed to score in 12 as well. The low scoring tendency of both sides makes a both‑teams‑to‑score "no" outcome more likely.

Both sides average under 1.5 goals per game and the recent head‑to‑head average is 2.2 goals per match, suggesting a good chance the total will stay below 2.5.

Both teams finding the net is strongly supported by historical trends and current defensive metrics. Nine of the last ten head-to-head meetings between Flora Tallinn and Tammeka have seen both sides score, producing an average of 3.3 goals per game. Flora Tallinn maintain a reliable home scoring average of 2.1 goals per match, failing to score only once in 12 home league matches this season. However, Flora have conceded 12 goals across their last five matches in all competitions. Tammeka enter having won five consecutive games and scored in each, including three goals against Flora just a week ago.

Tammeka carry solid momentum into this clash with four consecutive victories, demonstrating consistent scoring and defensive organisation. In contrast, Trans Narva have lost 17 of their 24 league matches this season, conceding 55 goals in total. While Narva's home record shows occasional resilience, backing Tammeka via Double Chance provides solid coverage against a potential stalemate.

Both sides possess reliable attacking profiles alongside defensive vulnerabilities. Paide have kept just 1 clean sheet in 12 away matches this league campaign while scoring at a rate of 1.8 goals per match on the road. Flora Tallinn average 2.2 goals scored per home match and have failed to score in only 1 of their 11 home fixtures. With 7 of their previous 10 head-to-head meetings seeing both teams score, a mutually productive encounter is probable.

Levadia Tallinn remain unbeaten away from home in the league this season with 10 wins and two draws from 12 matches, having scored in every single league fixture. In contrast, Kalju Nomme have lost their last two league games without finding the net. While the last two head-to-head fixtures ended level at 1-1, Levadia's league-leading form and unbeaten away run provide strong probabilistic support for them avoiding defeat.

Both clubs have registered an exceptionally low number of draws in the league this season, with Kuressaare drawing only 3 of their 24 fixtures and Vaprus drawing just 3 of their 23 matches. Furthermore, none of the last seven head-to-head meetings between them have finished level, making a decisive result for either side the statistically favoured outcome. Double Chance provides a well-supported hedge against match variance.

Nõmme United's home matches have averaged 4.2 total goals this season (25 scored, 25 conceded across 12 games), and the club has kept zero clean sheets in 24 league fixtures. Additionally, head-to-head encounters between these two clubs have exceeded 2.5 total goals in seven of their eight meetings (87.5%), producing an average of 4.125 goals per game.

Flora Tallinn sit 10 points ahead of Tammeka in third place and possess the division's higher scoring rate (2.0 goals per game overall, 1.8 away). While Tammeka won the last head-to-head meeting 3-1, Flora have won seven of the past 10 meetings between the sides. Given Tammeka's solid home record of six wins in 11 matches, covering the double chance on Flora Tallinn provides the best balance of safety and probability.

Flora Tallinn boast a 70% win rate on the road this season (7 wins from 10 away matches) and have won the last two league head-to-head meetings against Vaprus in 2026.

Paide hold a 100% win rate across all 7 historical head-to-head meetings against Nõmme United. Additionally, Nõmme United have conceded 29 goals in 11 away games and have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season.