Full time

1-1

Sat 10 Oct · 20:00

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Follow Ajax Follow NEC Nijmegen Follow this match

Round: Regular Season - 8
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Ajax

67Strong

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +4 goal difference

NEC Nijmegen

63Average

Last 5 matches · 1W-4D-0L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance

Ajax or Draw

BetGenius backs Ajax or Draw (Double Chance) at 77% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

77%

Confidence

Strong

Preview

Match preview

Ajax welcome NEC Nijmegen to Amsterdam for round eight of the Eredivisie season with both sides looking to correct defensive vulnerabilities. The hosts sit fifth in the table on 14 points, powered by an attack that has scored 21 goals in seven matches. However, their home record has been uneven, producing one win, two draws, and one defeat, with eight goals conceded across four fixtures at their own ground.

NEC Nijmegen occupy 11th place with eight points from seven games and travel following a difficult five-match sequence without a win across all competitions. While NEC have collected two away victories in league action and scored seven goals in three road trips, they have failed to register a single clean sheet all season. Furthermore, injuries have thinned their squad, with seven players currently sidelined.

Recent meetings between these clubs suggest a closely contested fixture. The previous two league encounters finished in draws, including a 1-1 stalemate in Amsterdam in February 2026 and a 2-2 draw in December 2025. Given Ajax's attacking output alongside their defensive concessions at home, another competitive match is in store.

Analysis

Key factors

Ajax have scored 21 goals in seven Eredivisie matches, averaging three goals per fixture.
NEC Nijmegen have failed to keep a clean sheet in all seven league matches this season, conceding 13 goals.
Ajax have kept zero clean sheets at home, conceding eight goals in four league games in Amsterdam.
The last two head-to-head matches between these sides ended in draws (1-1 in February 2026 and 2-2 in December 2025).
NEC Nijmegen enter the contest on a five-match winless streak in all competitions, losing three and drawing two.

Availability

Team news

Ajax

S. AdingraLacking Match Fitness
S. BerghuisInjury
D. BlindBack Injury
Caio HenriqueThigh Injury
K. DolbergKnee Injury
A. GaaeiInjury

O. EdvardsenInactive

NEC Nijmegen

E. MorGroin Injury
B. NuytinckAnkle Injury
P. SandlerInjury
D. TadicCalf Injury

Y. MoslihInactive

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Ajax at homeNEC Nijmegen away

Played

1-3-1

W-D-L

2-1-1

2.2

Scored /game

1.8

Conceded /game

1.5

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

80%

BTTS (last 5)

100%

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

40%

Combined scoring rate: 4.2 goals per game (Ajax at home plus NEC Nijmegen away).

Players

Key players this season

Ajax

J. Brandt6G
O. Gloukh4A
K. DolbergKnee Injury3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FeyenoordPromotion - Champions League (League phase)	9	+21	23
2	AZ AlkmaarPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)	9	+10	20
3	PSV EindhovenPromotion - Europa League (Qualification)	9	+15	19
4	AjaxPromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	9	+15	18
5	TwentePromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna SittardPromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	9	-1	15
7	GroningenPromotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	-12	7

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

4
Ajax: 5
Draws: 1
NEC Nijmegen

Ajax have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game, both teams scored in 70% of them.

2026-10-10Ajax1-1NEC Nijmegen
2026-02-21Ajax1-1NEC Nijmegen
2025-12-20NEC Nijmegen2-2Ajax
2025-05-11Ajax0-3NEC Nijmegen
2024-12-01NEC Nijmegen1-2Ajax

BetGenius

Our record in Eredivisie

73%59 won from 81 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON

Double Chance

Ajax or Draw

77%

Confidence

Ajax have lost only once in seven league matches this season and hold fifth position in the standings, averaging 3.0 goals per game overall. However, their home form has yielded points dropped in three of four matches, including a 2-2 draw with Excelsior and a 3-1 loss to PSV Eindhoven. NEC Nijmegen are winless in their last five outings across all competitions, but their head-to-head record against Ajax features four draws and one win in the last ten meetings, including draws in each of their last two clashes. Backing Ajax to avoid defeat respects their offensive strength while acknowledging recent stalemates between the two teams.

Explore

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Team news

Ajax

NEC Nijmegen

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

Ajax

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Eredivisie

1 published market

More from BetGenius

Understand these picks

Other Eredivisie predictions

Teams around them in the table