Home
Derby
0W 2D 3L · Goals 4–11
5 matches, 10 Oct to 31 Oct
20
Very poor
DLLDLLatest →
atMillwall
ChampionshipL1–4
atSheffield UtdChampionshipD1–1
vsStoke CityChampionshipL0–1
atQPRChampionshipL1–4
vsWrexhamChampionshipD1–1
- Round
- Regular Season - 14
- Venue
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
- Referee
- Sam Allison
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Team Total Goals
Derby Under 2.5 Goals
BetGenius backs Derby Under 2.5 Goals (Team Total Goals) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview
Match preview
Derby host Norwich in Championship Regular Season - 14 at 19:45 UTC on 3 November 2026. Derby sit 23rd of 24 with 7 points from 13 games and a goal difference of -14, inside the relegation zone. Their home record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 6 matches, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. Norwich are 15th with 15 points and a goal difference of -1. Their away record is 2 wins and 4 defeats from 6, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Norwich have won their last two league games, beating Watford 3-2 and Charlton 3-1 away.
Derby's squad list shows a long injury list for this match: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and L. Travis, with E. Cashin unavailable. Norwich's list is shorter: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure and P. Mattsson. Norwich's M. Kvistgaarden has 4 assists this season. Derby average 0.8 goals per game this season and Norwich average 1.8. In the last ten meetings, the average is 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 70% of them. Only 40% finished over 2.5.
On the numbers, Norwich are the more likely side to take something from this fixture, and a Derby win is the least likely outcome. A draw remains a realistic result given Derby's low scoring and the head-to-head record, so the primary pick covers Norwich winning or a draw.
Analysis
Key factors
- Derby are 23rd of 24 with 7 points from 13 games and a goal difference of -14, placing them inside the relegation zone.
- Derby's home record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 6 matches, with 4 goals scored.
- Derby's injury list is long: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and L. Travis, with E. Cashin unavailable.
- Norwich have won their last two league games and average 1.8 goals per game, against Derby's 0.8. M. Kvistgaarden has 4 assists.
- In the last ten meetings the average is 2.7 goals and both teams scored in 70% of them, but only 40% finished over 2.5.
- Coaches are J. Eustace for Derby and L. Manning for Norwich.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Norwich
2W 0D 3L · Goals 7–7
5 matches, 10 Oct to 31 Oct
53
Average
LLLWWLatest →
vsWatfordChampionshipW3–2
atCharltonChampionshipW3–1
vsPortsmouthChampionshipL0–1
vsSouthamptonChampionshipL0–1
atSwanseaChampionshipL1–2
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
Derby · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström (G)
- 22 M. Johnston (D)
- 43 I. Gordon (D)
- 28 D. Sanderson (D)
- 24 R. Nyambe (D)
- 20 A. Mowatt (M)
- 29 O. Fraulo (M)
- 11 S. Szmodics (M)
- 8 B. Clark (M)
- 19 H. Meister (M)
- 9 C. Morris (F)
Norwich · 4-2-3-1
- 32 D. Grimshaw (G)
- 3 J. Stacey (D)
- 15 Ruairi McConville (D)
- 6 H. Darling (D)
- 13 D. Yongwa (D)
- 16 Jacob Wright (M)
- 26 S. Field (M)
- 11 A. Brooks (M)
- 25 P. Maghoma (M)
- 49 A. Musaba (M)
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden (F)
DerbySubstitutes (9)
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 25S. DuffyD
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 14J. RobinsonD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 27L. TravisM
- 31J. VickersG
NorwichSubstitutes (9)
- 1V. KovačevićG
- 12L. MahovoD
- 24J. MakamaF
- 29O. SchwartauF
- 20A. Ben SlimaneM
- 17A. CrnacF
- 35K. FisherD
- 33J. CórdobaD
- 14B. ChriseneD
Starting XIs reported by API-Football, fetched 3 Nov 2026, 20:42 WAT. These are reported lineups, not predicted selections. Late changes may follow.
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- S. LangasInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- C. TaylorInjury
- L. TravisAnkle Injury
- E. CashinInactive
Norwich
- A. AhmedKnee Injury
- P. A. DialloInjury
- G. ForsythLacking Match Fitness
- M. ToureShoulder Injury
- P. MattssonHealth problems
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: Derby: Championship (2026); Norwich: Championship (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
Derby at homeNorwich away
6
Played
6
0-2-4
W-D-L
2-0-4
0.7
Scored /game
1.7
1.7
Conceded /game
2
0%
Clean sheets
0%
50%
Failed to score
33%
80% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
60% (5 games)
40% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
60% (5 games)
Combined scoring rate: 2.4 goals per game (Derby at home plus Norwich away).
Players
Key players this season
Norwich
- M. Kvistgaarden4A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sheffield Utd | 14 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 | Norwich | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 14 | -3 | 18 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton | 14 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | BurnleyRelegation - League One | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | DerbyRelegation - League One | 14 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 | PrestonRelegation - League One | 14 | -18 | 5 |
History
Head-to-head
- 4
- Derby
- 3
- Draws
- 3
- Norwich
Derby have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.7 goals a game, both teams scored in 70% of them.
- 2026-04-21Norwich2-1Derby
- 2025-10-21Derby1-0Norwich
- 2025-02-08Norwich1-1Derby
- 2024-09-28Derby2-3Norwich
- 2021-04-10Derby0-1Norwich
Prices
Archived pre-match odds
Provider quote time: 3 Nov 2026, 13:23 WAT. Decimal prices. Historical quotes, not current offers. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.
Match Winner
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Away | 2.11 · DafabetNamed quotes (5)
| 2.00 / 10 |
| Home | 3.64 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 3.45 / 10 |
| Draw | 3.72 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 3.57 / 10 |
Double Chance
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home/Away | 1.30 · William HillNamed quotes (5)
| 1.27 / 8 |
| Draw/Away | 1.33 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.28 / 8 |
| Home/Draw | 1.80 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.75 / 8 |
Goals Over/Under
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5.0 | 1.02 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.02 / 2 |
| Under 6.5 | 1.03 · BetanoNamed quotes (1)
| 1.03 / 1 |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 · BetanoNamed quotes (3)
| 1.04 / 3 |
| Under 4.75 | 1.07 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.07 / 2 |
| Under 5.5 | 1.07 · BetanoNamed quotes (4)
| 1.06 / 4 |
| Over 1.25 | 1.10 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.10 / 2 |
| Under 4.25 | 1.15 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.15 / 2 |
| Under 4.5 | 1.18 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.17 / 7 |
| Under 4.0 | 1.21 · BetVictorNamed quotes (3)
| 1.17 / 3 |
| Over 1.5 | 1.24 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.22 / 7 |
| Over 1.75 | 1.28 · BetVictorNamed quotes (3)
| 1.24 / 3 |
| Under 3.75 | 1.31 · BetVictorNamed quotes (3)
| 1.29 / 3 |
| Over 2.0 | 1.35 · BetanoNamed quotes (4)
| 1.31 / 4 |
| Under 3.5 | 1.47 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.44 / 7 |
| Over 2.25 | 1.54 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.50 / 4 |
| Under 3.25 | 1.56 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.50 / 4 |
| Under 3.0 | 1.70 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.65 / 6 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.75 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.71 / 8 |
| Over 2.75 | 1.94 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.88 / 5 |
| Under 2.75 | 1.94 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.86 / 5 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.21 · SBONamed quotes (5)
| 2.13 / 8 |
| Over 3.0 | 2.24 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.15 / 6 |
| Over 3.25 | 2.54 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.38 / 4 |
| Under 2.25 | 2.58 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.38 / 4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2.82 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.70 / 7 |
| Over 3.75 | 3.11 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 3.08 / 3 |
| Under 2.0 | 3.30 · BetanoNamed quotes (4)
| 3.02 / 4 |
| Under 1.75 | 3.44 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 3.42 / 3 |
| Over 4.0 | 4.05 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (3)
| 4.05 / 3 |
| Over 4.25 | 4.37 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.36 / 2 |
| Under 1.5 | 4.50 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 4.10 / 7 |
| Under 1.25 | 5.20 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 5.20 / 2 |
| Over 4.5 | 5.40 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 5.00 / 7 |
| Over 4.75 | 5.80 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 5.80 / 2 |
| Over 5.0 | 7.90 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 7.90 / 2 |
| Under 1.0 | 8.90 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 8.90 / 2 |
| Over 5.5 | 10.50 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 8.88 / 6 |
| Under 0.5 | 13.00 · Bet365Named quotes (4)
| 12.05 / 4 |
| Over 6.5 | 21.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 21.00 / 3 |
| Over 7.5 | 41.00 · Bet365Named quotes (2)
| 41.00 / 2 |
Both Teams Score
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.60 / 7 |
| No | 2.45 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 2.25 / 7 |
Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.
BetGenius
Our record in Championship
64%168 won from 261 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
2 published markets
FeaturedWON
Team Total Goals
Derby Under 2.5 Goals
78%
Confidence
Derby have averaged 0.8 goals per game this season, with 11 goals in 13 matches, and have failed to score in 4 of their 13 league games, including 3 of 6 home matches. Their only home win and their recent home results point to low scoring. Norwich's defence has conceded 24 in 13, but scoring 3 or more goals from a side averaging 0.8 is unlikely, so Derby staying at 2 goals or fewer is the more probable outcome.
FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Norwich or Draw
66%
Confidence
Norwich have the stronger season record (15 points against Derby's 7) and a better away profile than Derby have at home, with 10 goals scored in 6 away matches. Derby have won only once at home this season and have scored 4 goals in 6 home games. Covering a draw as well as a Norwich win accounts for Derby's home weakness without relying on Norwich winning outright. Both teams have conceded roughly 1.8 to 1.9 goals a game, and Derby have scored only 0.8 a game, so a low-scoring game is the more likely shape.
Explore
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Banker: Banker predictions · What a banker bet is · Banker record
- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
Teams around them in the table
About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 2 Nov 2026, 06:20 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Derby: 3 Nov 2026, 06:05 WAT; Norwich: 3 Nov 2026, 06:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 5 Nov 2026, 00:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Completed match: published prediction record
This match has finished. The published call is retained for review; see today’s predictions.
Published November 2, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.