Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 70% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.
Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia in the League Stage of the Europa League, with both sides on 4 and 3 points respectively and sitting in the lower half of a 36-team table. Levski have scored and conceded an average of one goal per game in this competition, and their European sample is small: three games, six goals in total. Jagiellonia have scored more (1.9 per game) but also conceded more on their travels, and they are coming off a 3-0 defeat to Anderlecht in their most recent European home game.
Both sides' averages point to a fairly open game but not a high-scoring one. Levski's defensive record at home is a concern for them, but their domestic form (top of the First League, 25 goals for and 5 against in 12 games) suggests they are hard to break down outside Europe. Jagiellonia's domestic goal output is more modest (17 scored, 18 conceded in 12 Ekstraklasa games), so their scoring in Europe is not a guarantee of goals against Levski.
The competition as a whole averages 3.07 goals per game, which lifts the baseline, but the two teams' own figures sit closer to two-and-a-half goals between them. The third goal is plausible rather than clearly supported, so the stronger case is for at least two goals in the match.
3W 2D 0L · Goals 7–3
5 matches, 15 Oct to 31 Oct
First League
First League
UEFA Europa League
Cup
UEFA Europa League3W 0D 2L · Goals 10–5
5 matches, 18 Oct to 31 Oct
Ekstraklasa
Cup
Ekstraklasa
UEFA Europa League
EkstraklasaLast five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.
Venue records: Levski Sofia: UEFA Europa League (2026); Jagiellonia: UEFA Europa League (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real SociedadPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal PalacePromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta PrahaPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski SofiaPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo ZagrebPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm GrazPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC NijmegenPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 24 | AC MilanPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | -5 | 1 |
Cached odds are more than two hours old and are withheld until refreshed.
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.The evidence supports at least two goals in this match. Jagiellonia have scored 1.9 per game in this competition and have found the net in most of their recent games, while Levski average one goal scored and one conceded per game in Europe, so both sides' records point to at least one side finding the net and the other responding. Levski's European games have produced 2 and 3 goals in the matches shown, and Jagiellonia's European games have included a 3-0 home defeat, which shows that their defence can be exposed. Head-to-head data is not available, so this rests on form and averages alone. The case for three goals is weaker: Levski have scored only one per game in Europe and have kept no clean sheets at home in this competition, but they have also conceded just one per game, and Jagiellonia have kept one clean sheet in seven games overall. Taken together, the two teams' per-game figures point to roughly two and a half goals, so two or more goals is better supported than three or more.
Levski have the stronger domestic base (top of the Bulgarian First League with ten wins from twelve) and the home venue, while Jagiellonia sit 9th of 18 in Poland and have conceded 1.3 goals per game in this competition. Levski's own European scoring has been thin at 1.0 goal per game, so a home win is far from settled and a draw is a realistic result. Backing Levski or a draw covers the outcomes where the home side is at least not beaten. The win on its own is less likely than the combined figure, which is why the confidence sits well below the hedge level and the pick is kept as a double chance.
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 3 Nov 2026, 23:00 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Levski Sofia: 5 Nov 2026, 00:05 WAT; Jagiellonia: 5 Nov 2026, 00:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Published November 3, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.
