Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction

Under 2.5 Goals — 56% confidence

Olympiakos concede very little, with 0.3 goals per game in all competitions and a clean sheet in two of three matches. Their own European games have been low scoring, with one goal scored in the win over Sparta Praha. Rennes have scored 1.3 per game, but they failed to score in one of three games and their European matches have been open (2-2 with Juventus, 2-1 against OFI). The league-wide average of 3.07 goals per game in this competition's standings table points the other way, so this is a moderate lean rather than a strong call.

Olympiakos Piraeus or Draw — 70% confidence

Olympiakos are the stronger side on current evidence: second of 14 in the Greek top flight with five straight league wins, and three wins from three in Europe. Their European goals conceded are 0.3 per game against Rennes' 1.0. Rennes have won only one of their three European games and lost their last league match 5-2 at Nice. A win for Olympiakos alone is a fair but not overwhelming expectation, so the draw is included to cover the most plausible way the backed side does not win. Olympiakos have also kept two clean sheets in three games, which supports the view that they will not lose.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Olympiakos are the stronger side on current evidence: second of 14 in the Greek top flight with five straight league wins, and three wins from three in Europe. Their European goals conceded are 0.3 per game against Rennes' 1.0. Rennes have won only one of their three European games and lost their last league match 5-2 at Nice. A win for Olympiakos alone is a fair but not overwhelming expectation, so the draw is included to cover the most plausible way the backed side does not win. Olympiakos have also kept two clean sheets in three games, which supports the view that they will not lose.

Olympiakos concede very little, with 0.3 goals per game in all competitions and a clean sheet in two of three matches. Their own European games have been low scoring, with one goal scored in the win over Sparta Praha. Rennes have scored 1.3 per game, but they failed to score in one of three games and their European matches have been open (2-2 with Juventus, 2-1 against OFI). The league-wide average of 3.07 goals per game in this competition's standings table points the other way, so this is a moderate lean rather than a strong call.

Rennes's last five matches all finished with at least three goals in total (7, 3, 4, 7 and 3), and four of Olympiakos's last five matches reached two or more goals (5, 2, 5, 1 and 2). Rennes have also conceded 19 goals in nine domestic games, so they are not a side that keeps things tight. The case for two or more goals is strong.

The case for three or more goals is weaker. Olympiakos have conceded only one goal in three European games and kept two clean sheets in their last three matches overall. Rennes average just 1.3 goals scored in this competition, and combined European averages come to roughly two goals per game. That fits a game with two goals well but does not clearly support a third goal, so Over 2.5 is not chosen.