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Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction
Checking status…Kickoff
Sun, Sep 13, 01:00 PM
Recent form
Lille
55Average
Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +2 goal difference
Estac Troyes
45Average
Last 5 matches · 1W-3D-1L · -3 goal difference
Our verdict
SolidMarket
Total Goals
Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Confidence65%
BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 65% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
Lille enter matchday four of the Ligue 1 campaign in strong shape, sitting fourth in the standings with seven points from their opening three fixtures. Unbeaten in the league with two wins and a draw, they have shown balanced offensive and defensive structure, scoring five goals while conceding only two. Their most recent domestic outings include a 1-0 away victory at Toulouse and an entertaining 2-2 home draw against Paris Saint Germain.
Estac Troyes travel to Lille sitting ninth with four points from three matches. While they secured a 2-1 away victory over Lorient earlier in the campaign, their defensive stability was severely questioned in their last outing, suffering a heavy 6-2 home defeat against Strasbourg. With seven goals conceded in three matches, shoring up their back line against high-calibre opposition remains an urgent priority.
Historical encounters at Lille have largely favoured the hosts, who have won four of the six head-to-head fixtures staged at their ground. Given Lille's steady start and Troyes' recent defensive vulnerabilities, the home side hold a distinct upper hand heading into this encounter.
Key factors
- Lille are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season with two wins and one draw from three matches.
- Estac Troyes have conceded seven goals in their first three league games, including six in a 6-2 loss to Strasbourg.
- Lille have scored in all three league fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals per match.
- Historical meetings between the clubs average three goals per match, with 60 percent going over 2.5 goals.
- Troyes have defensive absences with I. Boura, P. Gozzi, and Y. Titi all listed on the injury report.
Team news
Lille
- H. IgamaneKnee Injury
Estac Troyes
- I. BouraInjury
- P. GozziMuscle Injury
- Y. TitiInjury
Statistical comparison
Lille at home vs Estac Troyes away1
Played
1
0-1-0
W-D-L
1-0-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
60%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%
Key players this season
Lille
- O. Giroud2A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
Full table →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MonacoChampions League league stage | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Paris FCChampions League league stage | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | LyonChampions League league stage | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | LilleQualifying | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | RennesEuropa League league stage | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | StrasbourgPlay-offs | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Lorient | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Estac Troyes | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Marseille | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Angers | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
Full record →Lille
4
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
3
Lille have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.0 goals a game, both teams scored in 70% of them.
- 2023-06-03Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille
- 2023-01-15Lille 5-1 Estac Troyes
- 2023-01-08Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes
- 2022-05-01Estac Troyes 3-0 Lille
- 2021-12-04Lille 2-1 Estac Troyes
Our record in Ligue 1
51%20 won from 39 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.3 published markets
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Combo Bet
Market
Total Goals
Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Confidence65%
Goals have flowed frequently in matches involving both sides early this season. Estac Troyes have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game in the league, while Lille have averaged 1.7 goals scored per match across their fixtures. Head-to-head history also leans toward open affairs, with 60 percent of their previous ten meetings producing three or more total goals.
Featured
Market
Combo Bet
Pick
Lille or Draw + Over 2.5 Goals
Confidence65%
Lille or Draw — 78% confidence
Lille remain undefeated through their first three Ligue 1 fixtures, having taken seven points from nine available while scoring in every league match. In contrast, Estac Troyes have shown defensive frailties, shipping seven goals across three matches including six in their previous outing against Strasbourg. Furthermore, Lille have won four of the six historical home meetings between these sides, making them well positioned to take something from this fixture.
Over 2.5 Goals — 65% confidence
Goals have flowed frequently in matches involving both sides early this season. Estac Troyes have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game in the league, while Lille have averaged 1.7 goals scored per match across their fixtures. Head-to-head history also leans toward open affairs, with 60 percent of their previous ten meetings producing three or more total goals.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.
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Published September 11, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.