BetGenius
Round
League Stage - 3
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool
Referee
Szymon Marciniak
Form

Recent form

Liverpool
78Strong

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · +3 goal difference

Villarreal
47Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Liverpool or Draw

BetGenius backs Liverpool or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Liverpool come into the Champions League tie on the back of two wins in the competition, scoring eight goals while conceding four. Their recent league form is strong with four wins out of five, including a 6‑3 away victory over Lask Linz. Villarreal have a mixed record, registering a win, a draw and two losses in their last five, and sit on three points in the group.\n\nIn the head‑to‑head record Liverpool have the edge, winning three of the four previous Champions League meetings, most recently a 3‑2 away win in 2022. Villarreal are missing T. Buchanan and N. Pepe through injury, while Liverpool also have several players ruled out but none that appear to be core starters.\n\nBoth sides have shown a tendency for open games – the four historic meetings averaged 2.75 goals and Liverpool’s recent scoring rate is four goals per game. This suggests the fixture is likely to produce at least three goals.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Liverpool unbeaten in their last two Champions League matches, scoring eight goals
  2. Villarreal have lost three of their last four league games and sit on three points
  3. Liverpool lead the recent head‑to‑head 3‑1, most recent win 3‑2 away
  4. Injuries to T. Buchanan and N. Pepe weaken Villarreal’s options
  5. Both teams’ recent games have produced an average of over 2.5 goals
Availability

Team news

Liverpool

  • C. BradleyKnee Injury
  • H. EkitikeAchilles Tendon Injury
  • J. FrimpongMuscle Injury
  • G. LeoniKnee Injury
  • A. NalloLeg Injury
  • D. SzoboszlaiMuscle Injury
  • V. MunozKnee Injury

Villarreal

  • N. PepeEye injury
  • C. RomeroInjury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Liverpool at homeVillarreal away
3
Played
5
0-2-1
W-D-L
1-2-2
0.7
Scored /game
1.4
1.7
Conceded /game
1.4
—
Clean sheets
0%
—
Failed to score
40%
60%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 2.1 goals per game (Liverpool at home plus Villarreal away).

Players

Key players this season

Liverpool

  • K. Tsimikas3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1Paris Saint GermainPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+99
2Aston VillaPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+99
3LiverpoolPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+59
4Real MadridPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+59
5Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+39
6VfB StuttgartPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+57
16Atletico MadridPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)3+14
17Shakhtar DonetskPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)3+14
18PSV EindhovenPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)304
19VillarrealPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)303
20Manchester UnitedPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)3-13
21InterPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)3-13
22NapoliPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)3-23
History

Head-to-head

3
Liverpool
0
Draws
1
Villarreal

Liverpool have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, averaging 2.8 goals a game.

  • 2022-05-03Villarreal2-3Liverpool
  • 2022-04-27Liverpool2-0Villarreal
  • 2016-05-05Liverpool3-0Villarreal
  • 2016-04-28Villarreal1-0Liverpool
BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Champions League

60%80 won from 133 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Liverpool or Draw
68%
Confidence

Liverpool’s two‑game winning streak, high scoring average and 3‑1 edge in the recent head‑to‑head favour a home win or at least a draw. Villarreal’s recent form is uneven and they are missing two players, while Liverpool’s injuries involve peripheral squad members. The combined goal expectation exceeds 2.5, supporting the over‑2.5 call.

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Published October 19, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.