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Sun 18 Oct · 01:00

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama prediction

Follow Sao PauloFollow Vasco DA GamaFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 31
Venue
Morumbi, Sao Paulo
Referee
Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Sao Paulo
61Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · 0 goal difference

Vasco DA Gama
40Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Sao Paulo or Draw

BetGenius backs Sao Paulo or Draw (Double Chance) at 72% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

72%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Sao Paulo welcome Vasco da Gama to the Morumbi for round 31 of Serie A, with both clubs seeking points in the mid-table pack. Sao Paulo occupy 10th position on 39 points, sitting inside the Copa Sudamericana qualification places, while Vasco da Gama trail close behind in 14th place on 35 points.

Home form has been the bedrock of Sao Paulo's campaign, yielding nine wins, three draws, and only three defeats across 15 matches, alongside 24 goals scored and just 13 conceded. Conversely, Vasco da Gama have found life difficult on the road in the league, claiming only two wins from 14 away trips while conceding 24 goals, although they enter this encounter bolstered by four victories and a draw across their last five matches in all competitions.

With key attacker J. Calleri providing a consistent focal point with 10 league goals, Sao Paulo possess the firepower to test a Vasco backline that has averaged 1.7 goals conceded per away fixture. Even with Vasco arriving with renewed momentum, the hosts' resilience on their own turf gives them the edge to secure a positive result.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Sao Paulo have won nine and drawn three of their 15 home Serie A matches, losing only three times.
  2. Vasco da Gama have secured just two victories in 14 league matches away from home, conceding 24 goals.
  3. Sao Paulo boast a sturdy defensive record on home soil, allowing only 13 goals in 15 fixtures (0.9 per game).
  4. Vasco da Gama carry positive momentum into the tie, having won four and drawn one of their previous five matches across all competitions.
  5. J. Calleri provides primary goalscoring threat for Sao Paulo, leading the squad with 10 league goals.
Availability

Team news

Sao Paulo

  • ButaKnee Injury
  • D. DuarteKnee Injury
  • FerreiraInjury
  • N. BosshardtInactive
  • CaulyInactive

Vasco DA Gama

  • Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
  • Cauan BarrosInactive
  • C. CuestaInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Sao Paulo at homeVasco DA Gama away
16
Played
15
10-3-3
W-D-L
2-5-8
1.6
Scored /game
1
0.8
Conceded /game
1.7
38%
Clean sheets
7%
6%
Failed to score
33%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.6 goals per game (Sao Paulo at home plus Vasco DA Gama away).

Players

Key players this season

Sao Paulo

  • J. Calleri10G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
6Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+750
7BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+549
8SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+245
9Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+142
10RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+341
11BotafogoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31-439
12Coritiba31-1139
13Vitoria31-1137
14Mirassol31-836
15Vasco DA Gama30-735
16Corinthians31-733
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
18GremioRelegation - Serie B31-1031
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
6
Sao Paulo
1
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama

Sao Paulo have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.9 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-10-18Sao Paulo1-0Vasco DA Gama
  • 2026-04-18Vasco DA Gama2-1Sao Paulo
  • 2025-11-02Vasco DA Gama0-2Sao Paulo
  • 2025-06-13Sao Paulo1-3Vasco DA Gama
  • 2024-10-17Sao Paulo3-0Vasco DA Gama
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Sao Paulo or Draw
72%
Confidence

Sao Paulo have built their season around formidable home performances, picking up points in 12 of their 15 league outings at home while conceding fewer than a goal per game. While Vasco da Gama have enjoyed a positive five-game unbeaten run across competitions, their broader league away record shows only two wins from 14 attempts with 24 goals conceded. Backing Sao Paulo to win or draw covers the likelihood of the hosts controlling the tempo while respecting Vasco's improved resilience.

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Published October 16, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.