Serie A (Brazil)

Vitoria or Draw — 71% confidence

Gremio have failed to record a single away victory in twelve league fixtures this season, registering four draws and eight defeats. Despite Vitoria entering on a four-game losing streak, their overall home profile shows eight wins and one draw from twelve matches. Covering the home win and the draw addresses Vitoria's recent slip in form while capitalising on Gremio's extended away struggles.

Under 2.5 Goals — 74% confidence

Under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the venue splits of both teams. Gremio have struggled for output on their travels, scoring only six goals in twelve away matches for an average of 0.5 goals per away fixture, while failing to score in half of those games. Vitoria concede an average of just 0.8 goals per game at home and have collected eight clean sheets in twelve home outings. Additionally, seven of the previous ten meetings between these two clubs have produced fewer than three goals.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the venue splits of both teams. Gremio have struggled for output on their travels, scoring only six goals in twelve away matches for an average of 0.5 goals per away fixture, while failing to score in half of those games. Vitoria concede an average of just 0.8 goals per game at home and have collected eight clean sheets in twelve home outings. Additionally, seven of the previous ten meetings between these two clubs have produced fewer than three goals.

Gremio have failed to record a single away victory in twelve league fixtures this season, registering four draws and eight defeats. Despite Vitoria entering on a four-game losing streak, their overall home profile shows eight wins and one draw from twelve matches. Covering the home win and the draw addresses Vitoria's recent slip in form while capitalising on Gremio's extended away struggles.

Corinthians or Draw — 78% confidence

Chapecoense have failed to win any of their 12 away league matches this season, suffering nine defeats. While Corinthians are dealing with several absences including suspensions for Gabriel Paulista and Hugo Souza, their home defensive stability and superior head-to-head record position them well to take at least a point.

Under 2.5 Goals — 76% confidence

Under 2.5 goals has landed in nine of the last ten meetings between these two sides, producing an average of just 1.1 goals per match. Corinthians average one goal scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home, while Chapecoense average only 0.7 goals scored per away game.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Under 2.5 goals has landed in nine of the last ten meetings between these two sides, producing an average of just 1.1 goals per match. Corinthians average one goal scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home, while Chapecoense average only 0.7 goals scored per away game.

Chapecoense have failed to win any of their 12 away league matches this season, suffering nine defeats. While Corinthians are dealing with several absences including suspensions for Gabriel Paulista and Hugo Souza, their home defensive stability and superior head-to-head record position them well to take at least a point.

Under 2.5 Goals — 64% confidence

Palmeiras boast an exceptional defensive structure on the road, conceding just 12 goals in 13 away fixtures for an average of 0.9 per game while keeping five clean sheets. Additionally, their recent away outings include tight scorelines such as 0-0 at Santos and 1-1 at Mirassol, and the last three head-to-head matches between these two clubs have produced two or fewer goals twice.

Palmeiras or Draw — 78% confidence

Palmeiras enter this fixture in commanding league form, holding top spot with only two defeats in 13 away matches where they have accumulated seven victories and four draws. In contrast, Botafogo have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions and face an opponent that has defeated them in their last three direct meetings.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Palmeiras enter this fixture in commanding league form, holding top spot with only two defeats in 13 away matches where they have accumulated seven victories and four draws. In contrast, Botafogo have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions and face an opponent that has defeated them in their last three direct meetings.

Palmeiras boast an exceptional defensive structure on the road, conceding just 12 goals in 13 away fixtures for an average of 0.9 per game while keeping five clean sheets. Additionally, their recent away outings include tight scorelines such as 0-0 at Santos and 1-1 at Mirassol, and the last three head-to-head matches between these two clubs have produced two or fewer goals twice.

Atletico Paranaense enter the match in superior league form, having gone unbeaten across their last four matches while scoring nine goals in that span. In contrast, Cruzeiro have managed only one win in their last five outings and have conceded in each of those fixtures. Although Cruzeiro are historically competitive at home, Atletico Paranaense's offensive firepower led by 17-goal forward K. Viveros and their 2-1 victory over Cruzeiro earlier this campaign indicate the visitors have a solid chance to secure at least a point.

Flamengo have demonstrated remarkable consistency this campaign, collecting 51 points from 24 games and winning seven of their 13 away fixtures while averaging two goals per game on the road. In contrast, 19th-placed Remo are winless in their last five league matches and have conceded 42 goals overall this season. The previous meeting between the sides resulted in a comfortable 3-0 victory for Flamengo, underlining the considerable quality gap between the title contenders and the relegation battlers.

Internacional have proven difficult to beat at home, recording three wins and five draws from 13 home league matches while maintaining a solid defensive record of one goal conceded per game. Head-to-head records provide strong backing, as Internacional are undefeated in their last nine fixtures against Santos, winning four and drawing five. Santos face key absences through suspension for Lucas Verissimo and A. Barreal, which weakens their spine on the road where they have lost five of 11 matches.

Coritiba come into this match in strong league form with three wins and a draw from their last four outings. In contrast, Mirassol have struggled away from home all season, claiming only one win in 12 road matches with eight losses and zero away clean sheets. Coritiba also took maximum points in the reverse fixture with a 1-0 away win, making them heavily favored to avoid defeat at home.

Fluminense have established a strong home record in Serie A, winning nine and drawing three of their 13 fixtures in front of their own supporters. In contrast, Vasco DA Gama are winless across 11 away league matches this season, suffering six defeats and managing only 11 goals. Although Vasco claimed a 3-1 win in their recent cup encounter, Fluminense's overall league consistency and defensive solidity at home make them well positioned to take at least a point.

Sao Paulo have demonstrated strong resilience at home this season, earning results in nine of their 11 league fixtures at their home ground while maintaining a low concession rate of 0.9 goals per match. Atletico-MG have had notable issues generating consistent attack away from home, failing to score in seven of their 13 road games. Although Atletico-MG have won five of the past 10 head-to-head encounters, their offensive limitations on the road and an extensive defensive injury list make backing Sao Paulo to take at least a point the most probable outcome.

Bahia are in superior recent form, remaining unbeaten across their last five Serie A matches with three clean sheets in that span. RB Bragantino have won only one of their previous five games and are missing important options in attack and midfield, including suspended duo I. Pitta and A. Sant'Anna. Furthermore, Bahia have won each of the past three head-to-head fixtures between the two clubs, making the double chance in favor of the visitors well supported.

Flamengo hold an extensive advantage across table position, home dominance, and head-to-head history. Sitting second with 48 points and a plus-27 goal difference, they have won seven of 11 home matches and conceded just 0.7 goals per game in front of their fans. Mirassol sit 16th with seven away defeats in 11 outings and zero road clean sheets. Flamengo also dismantled Mirassol 5-1 in the reverse fixture just two weeks prior.

All three historical meetings between these two sides have surpassed the 2.5 goal mark, averaging five goals per game including a 5-1 scoreline in August 2026 and a 3-3 draw in late 2025. Flamengo average two goals scored per home match, while Mirassol concede an average of 1.6 goals per away match and have conceded 37 league goals overall.

Flamengo have scored 48 league goals in 24 matches, maintaining a consistent home average of two goals per game with 22 scored in 11 outings. In their previous encounter with Mirassol, they scored five goals. Supported by Pedro with 15 goals and Samuel Lino with eight goals, the home side face a Mirassol defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet on the road in 11 attempts.

Coritiba or Draw — 68% confidence

Coritiba hold an eleven-point advantage over Remo in the Serie A standings and have avoided defeat in eight of their twelve away fixtures this season. Remo are currently enduring a five-match winless streak across all venues and have drawn five of their eleven home games. Backing Coritiba to either win or share the points aligns with the visitors' superior form and Remo's difficulty in securing victories.

Under 2.5 Goals — 72% confidence

Head-to-head history between Remo and Coritiba shows four of their last five meetings finishing with under 2.5 total goals, including three matches that ended 1-0 or 0-0. Remo have conceded an average of just 1.2 goals per game at home this season, while Coritiba have maintained four clean sheets on their travels. Given Remo's recent run of low-scoring draws and the defensive balance Coritiba maintain away from home, a low-total outcome remains the most probable scenario.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Head-to-head history between Remo and Coritiba shows four of their last five meetings finishing with under 2.5 total goals, including three matches that ended 1-0 or 0-0. Remo have conceded an average of just 1.2 goals per game at home this season, while Coritiba have maintained four clean sheets on their travels. Given Remo's recent run of low-scoring draws and the defensive balance Coritiba maintain away from home, a low-total outcome remains the most probable scenario.

Coritiba hold an eleven-point advantage over Remo in the Serie A standings and have avoided defeat in eight of their twelve away fixtures this season. Remo are currently enduring a five-match winless streak across all venues and have drawn five of their eleven home games. Backing Coritiba to either win or share the points aligns with the visitors' superior form and Remo's difficulty in securing victories.

Bahia have lost only two of their 12 home league matches this season and are undefeated in their last five Serie A fixtures. Internacional have won just twice in 11 away games and enter this fixture without multiple regular starters due to suspension and injury, including Mercado, Gomes, Paula, and Rochet. Additionally, the head-to-head record at Bahia's home ground shows Bahia unbeaten across their last four meetings (two wins, two draws).

Palmeiras have been dominant at the top of the table with only two defeats in 12 away league fixtures, while Mirassol sit in the relegation zone and are without a win in their last five competitive outings. A double chance selection on Palmeiras covers potential resistance from the home side while remaining heavily supported by league form and historical head-to-head records.

Gremio have been dependable at home with six wins and only two losses in 11 matches, in stark contrast to Chapecoense-sc who have yet to win an away league match this season (0-3-8). Additionally, Chapecoense arrive heavily depleted by injuries and suspensions, while managing just seven goals on their travels. A double chance on the hosts covers the predominant paths to points while keeping variance low.

Corinthians have maintained a resilient home defensive record, allowing only 0.8 goals per match and keeping six clean sheets in 12 home league outings. In contrast, Santos have managed just one victory in 10 away league games this season. With Corinthians also unbeaten in their last four home head-to-head encounters against Santos, backing the hosts on the double chance offers a well-supported probability profile.

Flamengo have demonstrated remarkable consistency at home with a 6-3-1 record and only eight goals conceded in ten matches. While key absences such as Bruno Henrique, Alex Sandro, and N. de la Cruz could temper their attacking efficiency, Botafogo's poor recent form (four defeats in their last five games) and negative away record (six losses in 12 matches) strongly point toward Flamengo securing at least a point.

Atletico Paranaense have lost only one of their 12 home league matches this season (8 wins, 3 draws), boasting a stingy home defensive record of 0.6 goals conceded per game. Fluminense have won just two of their 11 away league fixtures and are missing key attacking focal point John Kennedy alongside suspended midfielder Hercules, tilting the balance towards the home side avoiding defeat in a disciplined encounter.

Cruzeiro sit 14 places higher in the standings (5th vs 19th) and have taken 5 wins from 11 away games this season. Vasco da Gama have lost 11 of their 23 league matches overall and are missing multiple players including Robert Renan, Mateus Carvalho, Brenner, and Jair. A double chance selection backing Cruzeiro to win or draw covers the strong likelihood of the higher-placed side avoiding defeat against a relegation-threatened opponent.

Sao Paulo have been difficult to defeat at home, suffering only two losses in 10 league fixtures while allowing an average of just 0.9 goals per match. They have also beaten RB Bragantino in both meetings between the sides in 2026, making the home win or draw double chance a well-supported option in what projects to be a tight contest.

Atletico-MG have proven difficult to defeat at home, posting five wins and four draws with only a single defeat in 10 home matches. In contrast, Vitoria have been winless in 12 away fixtures (four draws, eight losses) and average only 0.6 goals scored per away game. Selecting the double chance covers both a home win and the potential for a draw, reflecting Vitoria's low scoring output away from home.

Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd in the standings with 41 points and concede an average of just 0.9 goals per game. Botafogo will be without joint-top scorer Arthur Cabral due to suspension, and 70% of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals.

Both teams exhibit low scoring and conceding averages: Coritiba average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Corinthians average 1.1 scored and 1.1 conceded away. Furthermore, Corinthians will be without primary playmaker R. Garro (6 assists) and Yuri Alberto, reducing their offensive output.

Chapecoense-sc have won just 1 of their 22 league matches this season and are missing eight squad members, including suspended Victor Caetano and injured Y. Bolasie, Rafael Carvalheira, and Mauricio Garcez. Sao Paulo have already beaten Chapecoense 2-0 earlier in 2026 and have a significantly stronger defensive foundation (26 goals conceded vs 46 conceded by Chapecoense).

Santos hold a strong historical home record against Mirassol, winning four and drawing one of their five home head-to-head meetings. In contrast, Mirassol have lost seven of their 10 away league fixtures this season and remain without a clean sheet on the road.

Gremio remain winless away from home in 11 Serie A matches (0W, 4D, 7L) and have failed to score in five of those games. RB Bragantino have dominated this specific home fixture, winning four of the last five meetings without defeat.

Vitoria have won 8 of their 11 home league games while keeping 8 clean sheets. Coupled with Bahia drawing their last five consecutive league fixtures, Vitoria are well-positioned to avoid defeat at home.

Palmeiras enter the match in 1st place with strong home stability (7-3-1), while Vasco DA Gama sit 19th and remain winless away from home in the league (0-5-5). With Palmeiras conceding an average of only 0.7 goals per home match and winning 7 of the last 10 head-to-head clashes, the hosts are strongly positioned to claim all three points.

Atletico-MG are undefeated in their last five league matches (3 wins, 2 draws) and have dominated the head-to-head record against Internacional, winning 7 of their last 10 encounters. Internacional have won only 3 of their 12 home matches this season.