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Sturm Graz
2W 2D 1L · Goals 12–7
5 matches, 18 Oct to 1 Nov
53
Average
WWDLDLatest →
atWolfsberger AC
BundesligaD1–1
atAustria Lustenau
CupL2–3
vsRiedBundesligaD2–2
vsMarseille
UEFA Europa LeagueW1–0
vsGrazer AKBundesligaW6–1
- Round
- League Stage - 4
- Venue
- Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
- Referee
- Giorgi Kruashvili
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Double Chance
Sturm Graz or Draw
BetGenius backs Sturm Graz or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview
Match preview
Sturm Graz host Celje in the UEFA Europa League league stage (round 4) with both sides still searching for their first real foothold in the table. Sturm sit 19th of 36 on 4 points from three games, inside the play-off zone that the competition labels as Europa League play-offs, while Celje are 29th on 1 point with a goal difference of -5. Sturm are 4th of 12 in the Austrian Bundesliga on 19 points from 11 games, which is the stronger season-long measure of their level, and they have been unbeaten at home in this competition with one win and one draw.
Both sides have problems in front of goal. Sturm have scored only once in three Europa League games, and Celje have scored twice while conceding seven, with an away record of no wins and two defeats. Celje's last three results are a loss, a draw and a loss, and they have yet to win away from home in this competition. Sturm are also missing a long list of players, with nine listed as injured and several more off the roster, so their availability is a real concern for the home side.
The most likely outcomes favour Sturm avoiding defeat at home, but the match is not one-sided. Celje's defensive record is poor, so a home goal or two is plausible, and a low-scoring game is the most likely shape given how little both attacks have produced so far in this competition.
Analysis
Key factors
- Sturm are 4th of 12 in the Austrian Bundesliga on 19 points from 11 games, the stronger season-long indicator of their level.
- Celje have one point from three Europa League games, have yet to win away in the competition, and have lost their last two.
- Sturm have scored only once in three Europa League games, so their attack is a real limit on how much the home advantage can produce.
- Celje have conceded seven goals in three games, which makes a Sturm goal more plausible than their own attacking output would suggest.
- Sturm have nine players listed as injured and several more off the roster, which weakens their squad depth for this match.
- Both sides sit in the lower half of the 36-team league stage table, so the points at stake are meaningful for each, with Sturm in the play-off zone and Celje outside it.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Celje
2W 3D 0L · Goals 9–3
5 matches, 18 Oct to 1 Nov
73
Strong
DDWDWLatest →
vsNafta
1. SNLW4–0
atOlimpija Ljubljana1. SNLD1–1
atKorotan Prevalje
CupW2–0
vsRed Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa LeagueD2–2
atMaribor1. SNLD0–0
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.
Sturm Graz
- N. GeyrhoferOff the roster
- L. GrgicKnee Injury
- S. JattaShoulder Injury
- D. KhudyakovLeg Injury
- O. KiteishviliCalf Injury
- G. MamageishviliInjury
- F. RozgaMuscle Injury
- E. SogloMuscle Injury
- N. WeiperInjury
- S. WlodarczykOff the roster
Celje
- I. CalusicOff the roster
- J. PisekOff the roster
- R. PozegOff the roster
- Z. L. SegaOff the roster
- S. SlugaOff the roster
- D. VuklisevicOff the roster
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: Sturm Graz: UEFA Europa League (2026); Celje: UEFA Europa League (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
Sturm Graz at homeCelje away
2
Played
1
1-1-0
W-D-L
0-0-1
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
80% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
40% (5 games)
60% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
40% (5 games)
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Sparta PrahaPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski SofiaPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo ZagrebPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm GrazPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC NijmegenPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull SalzburgPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | AnderlechtPromotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prices
Bookmaker odds comparison
Provider quote time: 5 Nov 2026, 01:00 WAT. Decimal prices. Prices can change; verify availability with the bookmaker. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.
Match Winner
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.55 / 10 |
| Draw | 4.65 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 4.45 / 10 |
| Away | 5.75 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 5.54 / 10 |
Double Chance
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home/Draw | 1.18 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.15 / 8 |
| Home/Away | 1.22 · William HillNamed quotes (5)
| 1.20 / 8 |
| Draw/Away | 2.48 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (5)
| 2.40 / 8 |
Goals Over/Under
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.0 | 1.02 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 1.02 / 1 |
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 · Bet365Named quotes (2)
| 1.03 / 2 |
| Under 6.5 | 1.03 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 1.03 / 3 |
| Over 1.25 | 1.08 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.08 / 2 |
| Under 5.0 | 1.08 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.06 / 2 |
| Under 5.5 | 1.10 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.06 / 6 |
| Under 4.75 | 1.14 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.13 / 2 |
| Over 1.5 | 1.19 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.17 / 7 |
| Over 1.75 | 1.19 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.19 / 2 |
| Under 4.25 | 1.24 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.23 / 2 |
| Under 4.5 | 1.25 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.22 / 7 |
| Over 2.0 | 1.26 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.25 / 2 |
| Under 4.0 | 1.30 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.27 / 2 |
| Over 2.25 | 1.41 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 1.39 / 3 |
| Under 3.75 | 1.42 · BetVictorNamed quotes (3)
| 1.42 / 3 |
| Under 3.5 | 1.60 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.57 / 7 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.61 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.57 / 7 |
| Under 3.25 | 1.71 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.68 / 4 |
| Over 2.75 | 1.75 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.71 / 5 |
| Over 3.0 | 1.93 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.90 / 6 |
| Under 3.0 | 1.95 · SBONamed quotes (5)
| 1.92 / 6 |
| Under 2.75 | 2.18 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.12 / 5 |
| Over 3.25 | 2.19 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.12 / 4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2.45 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 2.38 / 7 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.47 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.44 / 7 |
| Over 3.75 | 2.76 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 2.69 / 3 |
| Under 2.25 | 2.87 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 2.83 / 3 |
| Over 4.0 | 3.42 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.36 / 2 |
| Over 4.25 | 3.67 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.63 / 2 |
| Under 2.0 | 3.85 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.80 / 2 |
| Under 1.75 | 4.28 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.27 / 2 |
| Over 4.5 | 4.33 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 4.20 / 7 |
| Over 4.75 | 4.88 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.84 / 2 |
| Under 1.5 | 5.06 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 5.00 / 7 |
| Under 1.25 | 6.36 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 6.33 / 2 |
| Over 5.0 | 6.58 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 6.49 / 2 |
| Over 5.5 | 8.50 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 7.60 / 6 |
| Under 1.0 | 10.20 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 10.20 / 1 |
| Over 6.5 | 15.00 · Bet365Named quotes (4)
| 13.50 / 4 |
| Under 0.5 | 15.00 · Bet365Named quotes (4)
| 13.50 / 4 |
| Over 7.5 | 29.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 16.50 / 3 |
Both Teams Score
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 · William HillNamed quotes (5)
| 1.65 / 7 |
| No | 2.25 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 2.15 / 7 |
Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.
BetGenius
Our record in UEFA Europa League
61%62 won from 102 settled predictions (1 void)
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
3 published markets
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Featured
Double Chance
Sturm Graz or Draw
68%
Confidence
Sturm have the better season-long level, sitting 4th of 12 in the Austrian Bundesliga, and have one win and one draw in their two home games in this competition. Celje have yet to win away from home in the Europa League and have lost their last two. The hedge covers a home win or a draw, which is the most likely range of results on this evidence. The win alone is closer to a coin flip than the hedge suggests, because Sturm have scored only once in three games and are missing several players.
Featured
Both Teams to Score
No
60%
Confidence
Sturm have scored once in three Europa League games and failed to score in two of them. Celje have scored twice in three games, with one of those goals coming in a draw and the other in the same draw, and they have failed to score in two of their three games as well. Both attacks have been limited, so a clean sheet for at least one side is more likely than not on this evidence.
Explore
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
- Both teams to score: BTTS predictions · How BTTS settles · BTTS record
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About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 4 Nov 2026, 01:10 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Sturm Graz: 5 Nov 2026, 01:35 WAT; Celje: 5 Nov 2026, 01:35 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Published November 5, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.