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Ligue 1Ligue 1
20:45
Fri 6 Nov
WAT

Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

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Round
Regular Season - 10
Venue
Stadium Municipal, Toulouse
Referee
Mathieu Vernice

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 60% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

60%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Toulouse host Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 meeting between two sides level on 10 points, with Toulouse 12th and Strasbourg 13th in an 18-team table. Neither side has a settled pattern. Toulouse have won 2 of 9 league and cup games this season, drawn 4 and lost 3, and they have scored 12 times while conceding 13. Strasbourg have won 3 of 9, drawn 1 and lost 5, scoring 17 and conceding 19. Strasbourg's home record (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 9 scored, 6 conceded) is better than their away record (1 win from 5, 8 scored, 13 conceded). Toulouse's home record is 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats from 4, with 3 scored and 5 conceded.

The head-to-head record points to a open, goal-producing contest. In the last 10 meetings the average is 2.6 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 and both teams scoring in 6 of 10. The most recent meeting, in May 2026, was a 2-1 Toulouse win at Strasbourg. Across the league this season the average is 3.04 goals per game.

Availability is incomplete for both sides. Toulouse have A. Donnum suspended after yellow cards, with R. Messali and M. Niflore injured. Strasbourg have J. Panichelli and F. Balde injured. Toulouse's C. Tengstedt (5 goals) and C. Cásseres (5 assists) are their main attacking threats, while Strasbourg lean on Gessime Yassine (4 goals, 3 assists). Jens Askou manages Toulouse and Hugo Oliveira manages Strasbourg.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Both sides sit level on 10 points at 12th and 13th, so the table gives little separation between them.
  2. Strasbourg's away record is weak (one win from five, 13 goals conceded), while Toulouse's home record is only moderate (one win from four, five conceded).
  3. The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both teams scoring in 60%.
  4. Toulouse have failed to score in 4 of 9 games, while Strasbourg have failed to score in only 2, which favours a total goals market over a low-scoring one.
  5. Availability is affected on both sides: Toulouse are missing A. Donnum (suspended) plus R. Messali and M. Niflore (injured), and Strasbourg are missing J. Panichelli and F. Balde (injured).
Form

Recent form and results

Home

Toulouse

1W 2D 2L · Goals 7–7

5 matches, 3 Oct to 1 Nov

42
Poor
LDWDLLatest →
  • atMarseille
    Ligue 1
    L0–2
  • vsEstac Troyes
    Ligue 1
    D0–0
  • atLe Mans
    Ligue 1
    W3–0
  • atMonaco
    Ligue 1
    D2–2
  • vsPAU
    Friendlies Clubs
    L2–3
Away

Strasbourg

1W 0D 4L · Goals 8–11

5 matches, 19 Sept to 1 Nov

32
Poor
LLLLWLatest →
  • vsAuxerre
    Ligue 1
    W5–1
  • atRennes
    Ligue 1
    L0–3
  • vsParis Saint Germain
    Ligue 1
    L1–3
  • atNice
    Ligue 1
    L1–2
  • atParis FC
    Ligue 1
    L1–2

Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.

Teams

Lineups & team news

Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Venue records: Toulouse: Ligue 1 (2026); Strasbourg: Ligue 1 (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.

A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.

Toulouse at homeStrasbourg away
4
Played
5
1-1-2
W-D-L
1-0-4
0.8
Scored /game
1.6
1.3
Conceded /game
2.6
—
Clean sheets
0%
—
Failed to score
40%
40% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
80% (5 games)
60% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
100% (5 games)

Combined scoring rate: 2.4 goals per game (Toulouse at home plus Strasbourg away).

Players

Key players this season

Toulouse

  • C. Tengstedt5G
  • C. Cásseres5A

Strasbourg

  • Gessime Yassine4G · 3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
11Lorient9-112
12Toulouse9-110
13Strasbourg9-210
14Auxerre9-1010
15Angers9-88
16Estac TroyesRelegation Playoffs9-98
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
3
Toulouse
2
Draws
5
Strasbourg

Strasbourg have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.6 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

  • 2026-05-03Strasbourg1-2Toulouse
  • 2025-12-06Toulouse1-0Strasbourg
  • 2025-03-16Strasbourg2-1Toulouse
  • 2025-01-12Toulouse1-2Strasbourg
  • 2024-04-07Toulouse0-0Strasbourg
Prices

Bookmaker odds comparison

Cached odds are more than two hours old and are withheld until refreshed.

BetGenius

Our record in Ligue 1

60%79 won from 131 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

3 published markets

Combo Bet
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
Confidence

The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal: 2.6 goals per meeting on average across the last 10, with over 2.5 in 6 of those 10. Strasbourg score 1.9 per game this season and have failed to score in only 2 of 9 matches, while conceding 2.1 per game. Their away game is the leaky part, with 2.6 conceded per away match. Toulouse's own scoring is weaker (1.3 per game, and 4 blank games from 9), and their home scoring average of 0.8 is the main reason this is not a higher-confidence call. The league-wide average of 3.04 goals per game supports a total above 2.5 without requiring either side to change their usual approach.

Combo Bet
Double Chance
Toulouse or Draw
58%
Confidence

On venue form, Toulouse have the better recent platform: 1.0 points per game at home (one win, one draw, two defeats from four), against Strasbourg's 0.6 points per game away (one win from five, with three of their last five away matches lost, including at Rennes, Nice and Paris FC). Toulouse are also marginally ahead on goal difference (-1 against -2) on the same 10 points. Strasbourg's away attack is their main asset, averaging 1.6 goals per away game, but they have conceded 2.6 per away game, which limits how often they can avoid defeat. The draw is a real outcome here: four of Toulouse's nine games have ended level, and the head-to-head has produced two draws in ten meetings. Covering a win or a draw gives Toulouse a reasonable route to not losing, but Strasbourg's recent 5-1 home win over Auxerre shows the away side can still score heavily.

Combo Bet
Combo Bet
Over 2.5 Goals + Toulouse or Draw
58%
Both must land · no better than

Over 2.5 Goals — 60% confidence

The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal: 2.6 goals per meeting on average across the last 10, with over 2.5 in 6 of those 10. Strasbourg score 1.9 per game this season and have failed to score in only 2 of 9 matches, while conceding 2.1 per game. Their away game is the leaky part, with 2.6 conceded per away match. Toulouse's own scoring is weaker (1.3 per game, and 4 blank games from 9), and their home scoring average of 0.8 is the main reason this is not a higher-confidence call. The league-wide average of 3.04 goals per game supports a total above 2.5 without requiring either side to change their usual approach.

Toulouse or Draw — 58% confidence

On venue form, Toulouse have the better recent platform: 1.0 points per game at home (one win, one draw, two defeats from four), against Strasbourg's 0.6 points per game away (one win from five, with three of their last five away matches lost, including at Rennes, Nice and Paris FC). Toulouse are also marginally ahead on goal difference (-1 against -2) on the same 10 points. Strasbourg's away attack is their main asset, averaging 1.6 goals per away game, but they have conceded 2.6 per away game, which limits how often they can avoid defeat. The draw is a real outcome here: four of Toulouse's nine games have ended level, and the head-to-head has produced two draws in ten meetings. Covering a win or a draw gives Toulouse a reasonable route to not losing, but Strasbourg's recent 5-1 home win over Auxerre shows the away side can still score heavily.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

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About this data

Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 4 Nov 2026, 21:25 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.

Team context last fetched: Toulouse: 4 Nov 2026, 21:25 WAT; Strasbourg: 4 Nov 2026, 21:25 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 06:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.

Published November 4, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.