Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten at home, scoring heavily while conceding almost nothing. Their league‑leading form, superior goal difference and perfect head‑to‑head record against Nagasaki suggest a clear advantage. Nagasaki’s low scoring rate and recent failures to find the net make it unlikely they can overturn the deficit. The defensive solidity of Hiroshima also points to a low‑scoring match, supporting an under‑2.5 goal outlook.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 11
- Venue
- Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki
- Referee
- Hiroyuki Kimura
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Recent form
Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -5 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 5W-0D-0L · +12 goal difference
Our verdict
BetGenius backs Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win (Match Winner) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.
Match preview
V‑varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in a classic top‑vs‑bottom clash in the J1 League. Hiroshima sit atop the table with 23 points and a +19 goal difference, while Nagasaki are 15th with just nine points and a –7 goal difference. The gap in points and quality is evident from the neighbourhood standings.
Nagasaki have struggled to find the net, averaging only 1.1 goals per game and failing to score in three of their last five matches. Their defence concedes 1.8 goals on average and they have managed just one clean sheet this season. In contrast, Hiroshima boast a 2.5 goals‑per‑game average, have kept six clean sheets and concede merely 0.6 goals per match. Their recent run of five straight wins, all with clean sheets, underlines their dominance.
Historically Hiroshima have won every encounter in the four meetings recorded, most recently a 2‑0 victory at home. The head‑to‑head record shows low BTTS (25%) and a low over‑2.5 rate (25%). Given Hiroshima’s firepower and Nagasaki’s offensive woes, an away win appears highly likely and the total goals are expected to stay under 2.5.
Key factors
- Sanfrecce sit top with 23 points and a +19 goal difference, unbeaten at home
- V‑varen Nagasaki are 15th with 9 points, have only one clean sheet and have failed to score in three of their last five matches
- Head‑to‑head: Hiroshima have won all four recent meetings, most recent 2‑0 at home
- Hiroshima’s defence has kept six clean sheets in ten games, conceding just 0.6 goals per match
- Nagasaki’s attack averages 1.1 goals per game and has been shut out twice in their last five
Statistical comparison
Combined scoring rate: 3.2 goals per game (V-varen Nagasaki at home plus Sanfrecce Hiroshima away).
Key players this season
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- A. Suzuki7G · 4A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida ZelviaPromotion - AFC Champions League (League phase) | 11 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 | FC TokyoPromotion - AFC Champions League (League phase) | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce HiroshimaPromotion - AFC Champions League (League phase) | 11 | +15 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga | 11 | -8 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 0
- V-varen Nagasaki
- 0
- Draws
- 4
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 4 of the last 4 meetings, averaging 2.5 goals a game, only 25% went over 2.5.
- 2026-04-18Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-varen Nagasaki
- 2026-02-06V-varen Nagasaki1-3Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 2018-08-11Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-varen Nagasaki
- 2018-04-28V-varen Nagasaki0-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1 published market
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Straight win: Straight win predictions · Reading odds and probability · Match result record
Teams around them in the table
Published October 20, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.

