Virsliga (Latvia)

Tukums have endured a miserable away campaign, remaining winless in 14 road games with 10 losses and 36 goals conceded. Super Nova have maintained an edge in direct encounters this year, avoiding defeat in all four 2026 meetings with three wins and one draw. Backing Super Nova to win or draw covers the most probable outcomes based on Tukums defensive fragility outside their home ground.

Both teams to score has landed in 80 percent of the last ten meetings between these sides, including all four encounters played in 2026. Tukums have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 14 away fixtures this season while still averaging 1.1 goals scored per away game. Super Nova also concede an average of 1.8 goals per match at home, making goals for both sides a recurring pattern.

Yes — 68% confidence

Both teams to score has landed in 80 percent of the last ten meetings between these sides, including all four encounters played in 2026. Tukums have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 14 away fixtures this season while still averaging 1.1 goals scored per away game. Super Nova also concede an average of 1.8 goals per match at home, making goals for both sides a recurring pattern.

Super Nova or Draw — 76% confidence

Tukums have endured a miserable away campaign, remaining winless in 14 road games with 10 losses and 36 goals conceded. Super Nova have maintained an edge in direct encounters this year, avoiding defeat in all four 2026 meetings with three wins and one draw. Backing Super Nova to win or draw covers the most probable outcomes based on Tukums defensive fragility outside their home ground.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (both teams to score and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

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Auda present a decisive, multi-signal advantage across league position, historical matchups, and home versus away splits. Across ten head-to-head fixtures, Auda have won eight times and never lost to Grobiņa, maintaining a perfect record of six wins from six matches at home in that span. Grobiņa have struggled considerably on the road, losing eight of 14 away fixtures while conceding 31 goals, an average of 2.2 per game. With Auda averaging 1.9 goals per match at home and holding a 29-point advantage in the table, the home victory represents the most probable outcome.

FS Jelgava hold an undefeated record against Super Nova across ten historical encounters, winning four and drawing six. At home, Jelgava have won three of their four meetings against this opponent. Coming into this fixture on the back of consecutive league victories, Jelgava have the form and head-to-head profile to secure at least a point against a Super Nova side winless in their last four matches.

Both defences have leaked goals consistently throughout the season. Ogre United concede an average of 3.1 goals per game away from home and have conceded at least three goals in four of their last five matches. Tukums average 1.8 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.6 on home soil. The three head-to-head fixtures between the sides this campaign produced scorelines of 1-1, 6-1, and 3-2, averaging 4.67 goals per match.

Over 2.5 Goals — 75% confidence

Both defences have leaked goals consistently throughout the season. Ogre United concede an average of 3.1 goals per game away from home and have conceded at least three goals in four of their last five matches. Tukums average 1.8 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.6 on home soil. The three head-to-head fixtures between the sides this campaign produced scorelines of 1-1, 6-1, and 3-2, averaging 4.67 goals per match.

Tukums or Draw — 76% confidence

Tukums have avoided defeat in eight of their 14 home league matches, including four victories, and previously defeated Ogre United 6-1 at home. Ogre United have lost 11 of their 14 away fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five matches in the league. Backing Tukums to win or draw covers the most frequent outcomes suggested by the visitors poor away record.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Tukums have avoided defeat in eight of their 14 home league matches, including four victories, and previously defeated Ogre United 6-1 at home. Ogre United have lost 11 of their 14 away fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five matches in the league. Backing Tukums to win or draw covers the most frequent outcomes suggested by the visitors poor away record.

Riga possess an overwhelming statistical advantage across the campaign, boasting 20 victories in 26 matches and an average of 3.0 goals scored per away game. They have claimed victory in nine of the previous ten head-to-head meetings against Liepaja, outscoring them heavily in the majority of those fixtures. Although Liepaja have respectable numbers at home, the gap in quality and attacking output between the title challengers and mid-table Liepaja points strongly toward an away win.

Rīgas FS demonstrate an overwhelming statistical advantage across all key metrics. They top the table with 66 points and hold a 12-0-1 away record, compared to bottom-placed Ogre United's 1-4-7 home record. Having won all three head-to-head meetings this season with an aggregate score of 12-3, the visitors present an exceptionally strong case for an outright victory even under strict tier criteria.

Auda meet the strict multi-signal threshold required for a direct match winner selection. The hosts hold a 24-point advantage in the Virsliga standings, have won all six historical home meetings against Super Nova, and have claimed nine victories from the last 10 head-to-head encounters overall. With Super Nova failing to score in their last two matches and Auda averaging 1.9 goals per home match, the hosts hold an exceptional statistical superiority across form, table position, and head-to-head history.

Tukums have collected all four of their season wins at home, posting a 4-4-5 record while failing to score in only one of their 13 home fixtures (averaging 1.8 goals per match). FS Jelgava have won only three of 13 away matches and remain winless in five recorded head-to-head visits to Tukums (two losses, three draws), including a 5-0 loss on this ground in May 2026. Double chance covering Tukums or a draw offers a well-supported, balanced position.

BFC Daugavpils enter this fixture in superior form, taking 10 points from their last four league matches, whereas Grobiņa have suffered four consecutive defeats. With Daugavpils having drawn five of their 12 away games and Grobiņa drawing five of their 13 home matches, the Double Chance selection covering an away win or draw offers a well-calibrated probabilistic position.

Auda have established strong authority in this matchup in 2026, winning all three encounters (1-0, 3-1, and 2-1). Additionally, Auda have lost only four of 12 home league matches this season, while FK Liepaja have dropped eight of their 14 away fixtures with an away defensive concession rate of 1.9 goals per game.

Both teams feature exceptional attacking records, with Riga scoring 76 goals in 25 games and Rīgas FS netting 62. Both teams have scored in 70% of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including earlier clashes this season finishing 3-3 and 2-1.