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AEK Athens FC
1W 0D 3L · Goals 7–10
4 matches, 20 Oct to 1 Nov
26
Very poor
LWLLLatest →
atPanathinaikos
Super League 1L0–2
atPAOK
CupL1–3
vsPanetolikosSuper League 1W5–0
atManchester City
UEFA Champions LeagueL1–5
Full time
2-3
Wed 4 Nov18:45 WAT
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction
- Round
- League Stage - 4
- Venue
- Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia
- Referee
- Maurizio Mariani
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Draw No Bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)
BetGenius backs Real Madrid (draw no bet) (Draw No Bet) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
68%
Confidence
Solid
Preview
Match preview
Real Madrid travel to AEK Athens as the stronger side on the evidence provided. They have won all three of their Champions League games in this data, scoring 10 and conceding 5, and sit 4th of 36 in the league phase on 9 points. AEK are 3 points from three games and 29th, with a goal difference of -5. Domestically, Real Madrid are 3rd of 20 in La Liga with nine wins from eleven, while AEK are 4th of 14 in the Super League 1 with form LWWWD. Real Madrid's squad carries reported absences (R. Asencio, F. Mendy, Rodrygo and F. Valverde injured, Vinicius Junior suspended), but that availability list is dated 1 November, so it is indicative rather than confirmed for kickoff.
AEK's recent results are mixed. They lost 0-2 at Panathinaikos and 1-3 at PAOK, and were beaten 5-1 at Manchester City in this competition, while their home form has been strong, with a 5-0 win over Panetolikos and no goals conceded in two home games in the data. The main question is whether AEK can keep Real Madrid's attack quiet at home, given that Real Madrid have averaged 3.3 goals per game this season and AEK have conceded 2.7 per game away.
The primary pick is Real Madrid to win, with a draw refunding the stake. This keeps a stalemate from counting as a loss while still backing the side the evidence favours. The total-goals call leans OVER 2.5, reflecting Real Madrid's scoring output and AEK's away defensive record, tempered by AEK's clean sheets at home.
Analysis
Key factors
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in this competition in the data, with three wins and 10 goals scored, and sit 4th of 36 on 9 points compared with AEK's 3 points.
- Real Madrid are 3rd of 20 in La Liga with nine wins from eleven, while AEK are 4th of 14 in the Super League 1, so the domestic gap is smaller than the Champions League table suggests.
- AEK's away form is weak: they lost at Panathinaikos, PAOK and Manchester City, conceding 8 goals across their away games in this competition in the data.
- AEK have kept clean sheets at home in the data (5-0 win over Panetolikos, no goals conceded in two home games), which limits Real Madrid's chances of a heavy scoreline.
- Real Madrid's availability list (R. Asencio, F. Mendy, Rodrygo, F. Valverde injured; Vinicius Junior suspended) is dated 1 November and is indicative only.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Real Madrid
5W 0D 0L · Goals 17–6
5 matches, 14 Oct to 1 Nov
96
Excellent
WWWWWLatest →
atRacing Santander
La LigaW3–0
atBarcelonaLa LigaW2–1
vsRB LeipzigUEFA Champions LeagueW4–1
vsSevillaLa LigaW4–1
atAS RomaUEFA Champions LeagueW4–3
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
AEK Athens FC · 4-4-2
- 91 A. Brignoli (G)
- 12 L. Rota (D)
- 2 H. Moukoudi (D)
- 44 Filipe Relvas (D)
- 3 S. Pilios (D)
- 14 L. Majer (M)
- 16 K. Arriaga (M)
- 6 K. Kairinen (M)
- 11 A. Koita (M)
- 8 M. Gaćinović (F)
- 9 L. Jović (F)
Real Madrid · 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Courtois (G)
- 24 D. Dumfries (D)
- 3 Éder Militão (D)
- 22 A. Rüdiger (D)
- 17 Marc Cucurella (D)
- 20 Bernardo Silva (M)
- 6 E. Camavinga (M)
- 25 Y. Diomande (M)
- 5 J. Bellingham (M)
- 7 Vinícius Júnior (M)
- 10 Kylian Mbappé (F)
AEK Athens FCSubstitutes (10)
- 41Marios BalamotisG
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 20P. MantalosM
- 18R. MarinM
- 1T. StrakoshaG
- 19B. VargaF
- 21D. VidaD
- 27M. VitálisM
- 90ZiniF
- 10O. ZubkovM
Real MadridSubstitutes (12)
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 9EndrickF
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 13A. LuninG
- 38Sergio MartínezM
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 21Brahim DíazM
Starting XIs reported by API-Football, fetched 4 Nov 2026, 18:42 WAT. These are reported lineups, not predicted selections. Late changes may follow.
AEK Athens FC
Team news unavailable for this fixture.
Real Madrid
- R. AsencioBroken Leg
- F. MendyHip Injury
- RodrygoKnee Injury
- F. ValverdeHamstring Injury
- Vinicius JuniorRed Card
Team news last updated Nov 1 (4 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: AEK Athens FC: UEFA Champions League (2026); Real Madrid: UEFA Champions League (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
AEK Athens FC at homeReal Madrid away
2
Played
1
2-0-0
W-D-L
1-0-0
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
—
BTTS (recent)
80% (5 games)
—
Over 2.5 (recent)
100% (5 games)
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BarcelonaPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Aston VillaPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | LiverpoolPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real MadridPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Sporting CPPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Bayern MünchenPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 24 | NapoliPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Lens | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 | RB Leipzig | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | Villarreal | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prices
Archived pre-match odds
Provider quote time: 4 Nov 2026, 13:15 WAT. Decimal prices. Historical quotes, not current offers. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.
Match Winner
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Away | 1.27 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.23 / 10 |
| Draw | 7.50 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 7.10 / 10 |
| Home | 12.11 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 11.20 / 10 |
Double Chance
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Draw/Away | 1.07 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.06 / 8 |
| Home/Away | 1.12 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.10 / 8 |
| Home/Draw | 4.50 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 4.19 / 8 |
Goals Over/Under
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 · BetanoNamed quotes (1)
| 1.02 / 1 |
| Over 1.0 | 1.02 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 1.02 / 1 |
| Under 8.5 | 1.02 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.02 / 2 |
| Under 7.5 | 1.04 · 1xBetNamed quotes (3)
| 1.04 / 3 |
| Over 1.75 | 1.06 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.06 / 2 |
| Over 1.5 | 1.09 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.06 / 6 |
| Over 2.0 | 1.09 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.08 / 2 |
| Under 6.0 | 1.10 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.08 / 2 |
| Under 6.5 | 1.10 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.06 / 5 |
| Over 2.25 | 1.16 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.16 / 2 |
| Under 5.25 | 1.23 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.23 / 2 |
| Under 5.5 | 1.23 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.20 / 6 |
| Under 5.0 | 1.29 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.27 / 2 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.30 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.28 / 7 |
| Over 2.75 | 1.32 · BetVictorNamed quotes (4)
| 1.31 / 4 |
| Under 4.75 | 1.38 · 1xBetNamed quotes (4)
| 1.37 / 4 |
| Over 3.0 | 1.42 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.38 / 5 |
| Under 4.5 | 1.53 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.49 / 7 |
| Over 3.25 | 1.57 · SBONamed quotes (5)
| 1.56 / 5 |
| Under 4.25 | 1.62 · 1xBetNamed quotes (4)
| 1.58 / 4 |
| Over 3.5 | 1.77 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.73 / 8 |
| Under 4.0 | 1.77 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.73 / 6 |
| Over 3.75 | 1.93 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.93 / 5 |
| Under 3.75 | 2.01 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.95 / 5 |
| Over 4.0 | 2.17 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.13 / 6 |
| Under 3.5 | 2.22 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 2.16 / 8 |
| Over 4.25 | 2.42 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.29 / 4 |
| Under 3.25 | 2.47 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.44 / 5 |
| Over 4.5 | 2.65 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.54 / 7 |
| Under 3.0 | 3.06 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 3.00 / 5 |
| Over 4.75 | 3.08 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.85 / 4 |
| Under 2.75 | 3.37 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 3.33 / 4 |
| Over 5.0 | 3.58 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.53 / 2 |
| Over 5.25 | 3.68 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.67 / 2 |
| Under 2.5 | 3.75 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 3.70 / 7 |
| Over 5.5 | 4.60 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 4.29 / 6 |
| Under 2.25 | 4.67 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.66 / 2 |
| Over 6.0 | 6.35 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 6.25 / 2 |
| Under 2.0 | 6.94 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 6.87 / 2 |
| Under 1.75 | 7.24 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 7.22 / 2 |
| Over 6.5 | 8.50 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 7.80 / 5 |
| Under 1.5 | 9.00 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 8.07 / 6 |
| Under 1.0 | 9.95 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 9.95 / 1 |
| Over 7.5 | 15.00 · Bet365Named quotes (4)
| 12.25 / 4 |
| Over 8.5 | 26.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 16.00 / 3 |
| Under 0.5 | 34.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 15.50 / 3 |
| Over 9.5 | 51.00 · Bet365Named quotes (2)
| 31.30 / 2 |
Both Teams Score
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 1.60 / 7 |
| No | 2.26 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 2.23 / 7 |
Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.
BetGenius
Our record in UEFA Champions League
63%110 won from 174 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
1 published market
FeaturedWON
Draw No Bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)
68%
Confidence
Real Madrid have won all three Champions League games in the data, scoring 10 and conceding 5, and sit 4th of 36 on 9 points, against AEK on 3 points in 29th with a goal difference of -5. Real Madrid are 3rd of 20 in La Liga with nine wins from eleven, while AEK are 4th of 14 in Greece. AEK's away results (0-2 at Panathinaikos, 1-3 at PAOK, 1-5 at Manchester City) weaken their case, although they have kept clean sheets at home in the data. Real Madrid's reported absences (Asencio, Mendy, Rodrygo, Valverde, and Vinicius Junior suspended) come from a list dated 1 November and may have changed by kickoff. The draw refunds the stake, so the pick loses only if AEK win.
Explore
More from BetGenius
Other UEFA Champions League predictions
Teams around them in the table
About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: AEK Athens FC: 4 Nov 2026, 12:05 WAT; Real Madrid: 4 Nov 2026, 12:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 18:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Completed match: published prediction record
This match has finished. The published call is retained for review; see today’s predictions.
Published November 2, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.