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UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League
Full time
3-2
Wed 4 Nov18:45 WAT

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool prediction

FollowFollowFollow match
Round
League Stage - 4
Venue
Chobani Stadium, Istanbul
Referee
Clement Turpin

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Our call

Our verdict

Team Total Goals
Fenerbahçe Under 2.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Fenerbahçe Under 2.5 Goals (Team Total Goals) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

74%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Liverpool arrive as the stronger side on Champions League evidence. They sit third in the league phase on 9 points with a goal difference of +5, while Fenerbahçe are 31st of 36 on 2 points with a goal difference of -6. Liverpool have scored 4.0 goals a game in the digest's figures and conceded 2.3. Fenerbahçe average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded, and they conceded six at Aston Villa in their most recent away trip in this competition.

Domestic form is much closer. Fenerbahçe are 6th of 18 in the Süper Lig with 16 points from 10 games, and Liverpool are 5th of 20 in the Premier League with 15 points from 9. Liverpool's most recent result was a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal, and Fenerbahçe's last five included two defeats in Turkey. The digest contains no head-to-head record for these two sides, so this read rests on form, goal output and table position.

Both squads have absentees. Fenerbahçe list six unavailable players, including M. Asensio (knee injury), J. Oosterwolde (Achilles) and N. Ake (muscle). Liverpool list seven, including H. Ekitike (Achilles), J. Frimpong (muscle) and C. Bradley (knee). Talisca (4 goals) and M. Greenwood (3 goals) are Fenerbahçe's main threats, while K. Tsimikas (3 assists) is Liverpool's key contributor in the digest.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Liverpool are third in the league phase on 9 points (goal difference +5); Fenerbahçe are 31st of 36 on 2 points (goal difference -6).
  2. Domestic positions are close: Fenerbahçe 6th of 18 in the Süper Lig, Liverpool 5th of 20 in the Premier League.
  3. Fenerbahçe average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in the digest's Champions League figures, with three or more goals reached only once in their last five.
  4. Liverpool average 4.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded, and have no clean sheets in the three games recorded.
  5. Six Fenerbahçe absentees (including M. Asensio, J. Oosterwolde, N. Ake) and seven Liverpool absentees (including H. Ekitike, J. Frimpong, C. Bradley) are listed as of 4 November 2026.
  6. No head-to-head record is available in the digest, so the analysis relies on current form, goal output and table position.
Form

Recent form and results

Home

Fenerbahçe

1W 1D 3L · Goals 7–12

5 matches, 14 Oct to 31 Oct

31
Poor
LWDLLLatest →
  • vsGöztepe
    Süper Lig
    L1–2
  • atGalatasaray
    Süper Lig
    L1–2
  • vsSlavia Praha
    UEFA Champions League
    D2–2
  • vsAlanyaspor
    Süper Lig
    W3–0
  • atAston Villa
    UEFA Champions League
    L0–6
Away

Liverpool

3W 1D 1L · Goals 9–6

5 matches, 17 Oct to 1 Nov

59
Average
WWWDLLatest →
  • vsArsenal
    Premier League
    L0–1
  • vsChelsea
    League Cup
    D1–1
  • vsBrighton
    Premier League
    W2–0
  • vsVillarreal
    UEFA Champions League
    W4–3
  • atBrentford
    Premier League
    W2–1

Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.

Teams

Lineups & team news

Fenerbahçe · 4-3-3

  1. 31 Ederson (G)
  2. 27 Nélson Semedo (D)
  3. 37 M. Škriniar (D)
  4. 21 K. Peprah Oppong (D)
  5. 3 A. Brown (D)
  6. 6 M. Guendouzi (M)
  7. 91 N. Kanté (M)
  8. 5 İ. Yüksek (M)
  9. 11 M. Greenwood (F)
  10. 9 R. Lukaku (F)
  11. 17 İ. Kahveci (F)

Liverpool · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker (G)
  2. 2 J. Gomez (D)
  3. 5 J. Jacquet (D)
  4. 4 V. van Dijk (D)
  5. 21 K. Tsimikas (D)
  6. 10 A. Mac Allister (M)
  7. 42 T. Nyoni (M)
  8. 23 Víctor Muñoz (M)
  9. 8 D. Szoboszlai (M)
  10. 73 R. Ngumoha (M)
  11. 29 B. Barcola (F)
FenerbahçeSubstitutes (11)
  • 45N. DorgelesF
  • 19V. MuriqiF
  • 18M. MüldürD
  • 77O. MimovićD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 34M. GünokG
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 14Y. DemirD
  • 13T. ÇetinG
  • 70O. AydınF
  • 7K. AktürkoğluF
LiverpoolSubstitutes (11)
  • 28F. WoodmanG
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 53J. McConnellM
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
  • 67L. KoumasF
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 9A. IsakF
  • 18C. GakpoF
  • 76J. DannsF
  • 44L. ChambersD
  • 33R. AraújoD

Starting XIs reported by API-Football, fetched 4 Nov 2026, 18:42 WAT. These are reported lineups, not predicted selections. Late changes may follow.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Venue records: Fenerbahçe: UEFA Champions League (2026); Liverpool: UEFA Champions League (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.

A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.

Fenerbahçe at homeLiverpool away
5
Played
1
2-3-0
W-D-L
1-0-0
1.4
Scored /game
—
0.8
Conceded /game
—
40%
Clean sheets
—
0%
Failed to score
—
60% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
60% (5 games)
100% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
40% (5 games)
Players

Key players this season

Fenerbahçe

  • Talisca4G
  • M. Greenwood3G

Liverpool

  • K. Tsimikas3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1Paris Saint GermainPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)4+1512
2BarcelonaPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)4+89
3Aston VillaPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)4+69
4LiverpoolPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+59
5Real MadridPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+59
6Sporting CPPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)4+49
7Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)3+39
28RB Leipzig3-53
29Villarreal4-63
30Feyenoord4-73
31Fenerbahçe3-62
32Slavia Praha3-31
33Viking3-41
34Lille4-61
Prices

Archived pre-match odds

Provider quote time: 4 Nov 2026, 17:13 WAT. Decimal prices. Historical quotes, not current offers. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.

Match Winner

SelectionBest quoteMedian / books
Away1.57 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 1.57
  • Dafabet: 1.55
  • Pinnacle: 1.52
  • 1xBet: 1.51
  • Marathonbet: 1.49
1.48 / 10
Draw5.33 · 1xBet
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 5.33
  • Marathonbet: 5.25
  • Bet365: 5.00
  • Betfair: 5.00
  • BetVictor: 5.00
4.99 / 10
Home6.00 · Betfair
Named quotes (5)
  • Betfair: 6.00
  • BetVictor: 6.00
  • 1xBet: 5.99
  • Pinnacle: 5.95
  • Marathonbet: 5.90
5.76 / 10

Double Chance

SelectionBest quoteMedian / books
Draw/Away1.16 · 1xBet
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 1.16
  • Betano: 1.16
  • Marathonbet: 1.15
  • William Hill: 1.15
  • BetVictor: 1.14
1.15 / 8
Home/Away1.19 · 1xBet
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 1.19
  • Betano: 1.18
  • Marathonbet: 1.18
  • William Hill: 1.18
  • Bet365: 1.17
1.17 / 8
Home/Draw2.75 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 2.75
  • 1xBet: 2.74
  • Marathonbet: 2.74
  • SBO: 2.70
  • Betano: 2.67
2.69 / 8

Goals Over/Under

SelectionBest quoteMedian / books
Over 0.51.02 · Betano
Named quotes (1)
  • Betano: 1.02
1.02 / 1
Over 1.01.02 · 1xBet
Named quotes (1)
  • 1xBet: 1.02
1.02 / 1
Under 7.51.03 · Betano
Named quotes (3)
  • Betano: 1.03
  • 1xBet: 1.02
  • Bet365: 1.02
1.02 / 3
Under 6.01.07 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.07
  • Marathonbet: 1.04
1.06 / 2
Over 1.751.08 · Marathonbet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.08
  • Marathonbet: 1.08
1.08 / 2
Under 6.51.08 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 1.08
  • Bet365: 1.06
  • Betfair: 1.06
  • 1xBet: 1.04
  • BetVictor: 1.03
1.06 / 5
Over 1.51.10 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 1.10
  • Betano: 1.10
  • 1xBet: 1.09
  • Betfair: 1.09
  • Marathonbet: 1.06
1.09 / 6
Over 2.01.12 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.12
  • Marathonbet: 1.10
1.11 / 2
Under 5.251.18 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.18
  • Marathonbet: 1.17
1.17 / 2
Under 5.51.20 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 1.20
  • 1xBet: 1.18
  • Betfair: 1.18
  • Bet365: 1.17
  • BetVictor: 1.14
1.17 / 6
Under 5.01.23 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.23
  • Marathonbet: 1.20
1.21 / 2
Over 2.251.28 · BetVictor
Named quotes (4)
  • BetVictor: 1.28
  • Pinnacle: 1.28
  • 1xBet: 1.22
  • Marathonbet: 1.21
1.25 / 4
Under 4.751.31 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 1.31
  • Marathonbet: 1.30
1.31 / 2
Over 2.51.35 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 1.35
  • Pinnacle: 1.35
  • Bet365: 1.33
  • Betano: 1.33
  • BetVictor: 1.32
1.33 / 7
Over 2.751.41 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (4)
  • Pinnacle: 1.41
  • 1xBet: 1.40
  • Marathonbet: 1.38
  • BetVictor: 1.37
1.39 / 4
Under 4.51.45 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 1.45
  • 1xBet: 1.44
  • Betfair: 1.44
  • Pinnacle: 1.42
  • BetVictor: 1.41
1.42 / 7
Under 4.251.50 · 1xBet
Named quotes (4)
  • 1xBet: 1.50
  • Marathonbet: 1.49
  • Pinnacle: 1.49
  • BetVictor: 1.48
1.49 / 4
Over 3.01.51 · SBO
Named quotes (5)
  • SBO: 1.51
  • 1xBet: 1.50
  • Pinnacle: 1.50
  • Betano: 1.47
  • Marathonbet: 1.47
1.48 / 6
Under 4.01.65 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 1.65
  • 1xBet: 1.63
  • Pinnacle: 1.61
  • SBO: 1.60
  • Marathonbet: 1.59
1.60 / 6
Over 3.251.72 · 1xBet
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 1.72
  • Pinnacle: 1.68
  • SBO: 1.66
  • Marathonbet: 1.65
  • BetVictor: 1.61
1.66 / 5
Under 3.751.84 · SBO
Named quotes (5)
  • SBO: 1.84
  • Pinnacle: 1.81
  • 1xBet: 1.80
  • Marathonbet: 1.78
  • BetVictor: 1.74
1.80 / 5
Over 3.51.91 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • 1xBet: 1.91
  • Bet365: 1.91
  • Pinnacle: 1.88
  • SBO: 1.86
  • Betfair: 1.85
1.85 / 8
Under 3.52.04 · SBO
Named quotes (5)
  • SBO: 2.04
  • 1xBet: 2.03
  • Betano: 2.02
  • Pinnacle: 2.02
  • Marathonbet: 1.97
2.00 / 8
Over 3.752.08 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (5)
  • Pinnacle: 2.08
  • SBO: 2.06
  • 1xBet: 2.04
  • Marathonbet: 2.01
  • BetVictor: 1.93
2.04 / 5
Under 3.252.31 · SBO
Named quotes (5)
  • SBO: 2.31
  • 1xBet: 2.30
  • Pinnacle: 2.27
  • Marathonbet: 2.21
  • BetVictor: 2.13
2.27 / 5
Over 4.02.43 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (5)
  • Pinnacle: 2.43
  • SBO: 2.42
  • 1xBet: 2.36
  • Betano: 2.30
  • Marathonbet: 2.30
2.33 / 6
Over 4.252.71 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (4)
  • Pinnacle: 2.71
  • 1xBet: 2.53
  • Marathonbet: 2.51
  • BetVictor: 2.41
2.52 / 4
Under 3.02.77 · Betano
Named quotes (5)
  • Betano: 2.77
  • Pinnacle: 2.73
  • 1xBet: 2.66
  • SBO: 2.63
  • Marathonbet: 2.60
2.65 / 6
Over 4.53.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 3.00
  • Pinnacle: 3.00
  • Betano: 2.82
  • 1xBet: 2.80
  • Betfair: 2.80
2.80 / 7
Under 2.753.05 · Pinnacle
Named quotes (4)
  • Pinnacle: 3.05
  • 1xBet: 2.95
  • Marathonbet: 2.90
  • BetVictor: 2.77
2.92 / 4
Over 4.753.22 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 3.22
  • Marathonbet: 3.20
3.21 / 2
Under 2.53.50 · Betfair
Named quotes (5)
  • Betfair: 3.50
  • Bet365: 3.40
  • Pinnacle: 3.37
  • Betano: 3.35
  • 1xBet: 3.20
3.35 / 7
Under 2.253.96 · 1xBet
Named quotes (4)
  • 1xBet: 3.96
  • Marathonbet: 3.92
  • Pinnacle: 3.82
  • BetVictor: 3.25
3.87 / 4
Over 5.04.07 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 4.07
  • Marathonbet: 3.96
4.02 / 2
Over 5.254.28 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 4.28
  • Marathonbet: 4.25
4.27 / 2
Over 5.55.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 5.00
  • Betfair: 5.00
  • BetVictor: 5.00
  • Betano: 4.60
  • 1xBet: 4.58
4.80 / 6
Under 2.05.87 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 5.87
  • Marathonbet: 5.75
5.81 / 2
Under 1.756.14 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 6.14
  • Marathonbet: 6.10
6.12 / 2
Over 6.07.31 · 1xBet
Named quotes (2)
  • 1xBet: 7.31
  • Marathonbet: 7.10
7.21 / 2
Under 1.58.00 · BetVictor
Named quotes (5)
  • BetVictor: 8.00
  • Betfair: 7.50
  • Bet365: 7.00
  • Betano: 7.00
  • 1xBet: 6.56
7.00 / 6
Under 1.09.95 · 1xBet
Named quotes (1)
  • 1xBet: 9.95
9.95 / 1
Over 6.510.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 10.00
  • BetVictor: 9.50
  • Betfair: 9.00
  • 1xBet: 8.70
  • Betano: 7.90
9.00 / 5
Over 7.519.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (4)
  • Bet365: 19.00
  • Betfair: 17.00
  • Betano: 12.50
  • 1xBet: 9.80
14.75 / 4
Under 0.523.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (3)
  • Bet365: 23.00
  • Betano: 15.00
  • 1xBet: 11.60
15.00 / 3
Over 8.529.00 · Bet365
Named quotes (3)
  • Bet365: 29.00
  • Betano: 16.50
  • 1xBet: 11.60
16.50 / 3

Both Teams Score

SelectionBest quoteMedian / books
Yes1.50 · Bet365
Named quotes (5)
  • Bet365: 1.50
  • 1xBet: 1.47
  • Marathonbet: 1.47
  • Betano: 1.44
  • Betfair: 1.40
1.44 / 7
No2.80 · Betfair
Named quotes (5)
  • Betfair: 2.80
  • William Hill: 2.75
  • BetVictor: 2.70
  • Betano: 2.67
  • 1xBet: 2.53
2.67 / 7

Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.

BetGenius

Our record in UEFA Champions League

63%110 won from 174 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

2 published markets

FeaturedLOST
Team Total Goals
Fenerbahçe Under 2.5 Goals
74%
Confidence

Fenerbahçe's scoring rate is the strongest team-specific signal in the digest: 1.2 goals a game across the Champions League figures, and only one failure to score in nine overall games does not translate into volume. In their last five they reached three goals once (a 3-0 win over Alanyaspor), and their home goal average is 1.4. Liverpool's leakage at 2.3 a game makes it plausible the match runs higher overall, which is why the total is marked OVER 2.5 while the home side is marked UNDER 2.5.

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Liverpool or Draw
66%
Confidence

Liverpool's European record and goal difference point to them being the more likely winners, but the home side's domestic standing is close to theirs and Fenerbahçe have kept a home record of two wins and three draws in five. The probability of a Liverpool win on its own sits around the middle range, so the Liverpool-or-draw cover is the better-supported position here. The total is expected to clear 2.5 because Liverpool score freely (4.0 a game) and concede regularly (2.3 a game), while Fenerbahçe have scored at most two in four of their last five games.

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About this data

Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 2 Nov 2026, 21:10 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.

Team context last fetched: Fenerbahçe: 4 Nov 2026, 12:05 WAT; Liverpool: 4 Nov 2026, 12:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 18:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.

Completed match: published prediction record

This match has finished. The published call is retained for review; see today’s predictions.

Published November 2, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.