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Sat 5 Sept · 15:15

Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction

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Round
Regular Season - 4
Venue
San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao
Referee
José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Athletic Club
43Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-3D-1L · -1 goal difference

Atletico Madrid
80Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-1D-0L · +5 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Atletico Madrid or Draw

BetGenius backs Atletico Madrid or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

76%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Athletic Club welcome Atletico Madrid to San Mames for matchday four of the La Liga campaign. The hosts have experienced a mixed opening to their season, collecting three points from three matches with one victory and two defeats, including a 3-1 home loss to Sevilla before rebounding with a 2-0 win at Celta Vigo.

Atletico Madrid have started brightly and sit third in the table with seven points from their opening three fixtures. Diego Simeone's side remain unbeaten in the league following a 3-1 away victory against Sevilla, a 2-2 draw with Villarreal, and an opening 2-0 win over Malaga, powered by strong early-season form from Alex Baena who has registered three goals and an assist.

Historical meetings between these two sides have traditionally been tightly contested, with Atletico Madrid claiming six victories to Athletic Club's four across their last ten encounters. Given Atletico's solid early momentum and Athletic Club's defensive absences, the visitors carry the upper hand heading into this clash.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in La Liga this season with two wins and one draw from three matches.
  2. Alex Baena has contributed directly to four goals for Atletico Madrid with three goals and one assist.
  3. Athletic Club have lost two of their opening three league fixtures, conceding five goals.
  4. Athletic Club will be without injured defenders Dani Vivian and Unai Egiluz, along with midfielder Benat Prados Diaz.
  5. Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these teams have produced under 2.5 total goals, averaging 2.0 goals per match.
Availability

Team news

Athletic Club

  • U. EgiluzKnee Injury
  • G. GuruzetaKnee Injury
  • O. SancetMuscle Injury
  • A. LaporteRed Card

Atletico Madrid

  • J. CardosoThigh Injury
  • KokeMuscle Injury
  • C. RomeroMuscle Injury
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Athletic Club at homeAtletico Madrid away
4
Played
5
1-2-1
W-D-L
4-0-1
1.3
Scored /game
1.8
1
Conceded /game
1
—
Clean sheets
40%
—
Failed to score
20%
20%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.1 goals per game (Athletic Club at home plus Atletico Madrid away).

Players

Key players this season

Atletico Madrid

  • Álex Baena5G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
1BarcelonaPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+3027
2Atletico MadridPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+1122
3Real MadridPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+1421
4Real BetisPromotion - Champions League (League phase)9+219
5Real SociedadPromotion - Europa League (League phase)9016
10Osasuna9-811
11Levante9-210
12Villarreal909
13Athletic Club8-19
14Rayo Vallecano8-59
15Getafe9-69
16Espanyol9-18
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
4
Athletic Club
0
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.0 goals a game, only 30% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-04-25Atletico Madrid3-2Athletic Club
  • 2025-12-06Athletic Club1-0Atletico Madrid
  • 2025-03-01Atletico Madrid1-0Athletic Club
  • 2024-08-31Athletic Club0-1Atletico Madrid
  • 2024-04-27Atletico Madrid3-1Athletic Club
BetGenius

Our record in La Liga

74%92 won from 125 settled predictions (1 void)

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Atletico Madrid or Draw
76%
Confidence

Atletico Madrid arrive unbeaten in three league matches, having picked up seven points while scoring seven goals across their opening fixtures. Athletic Club have suffered two defeats in three league games, including a loss in their sole home match against Sevilla. Furthermore, Athletic are dealing with key defensive absences such as Dani Vivian and Benat Prados Diaz. While San Mames is a demanding venue, Atletico's attacking efficiency and solid form give them the advantage to avoid defeat in a match that has historically produced low goal totals, with under 2.5 goals landing in 70 percent of their last ten head-to-head encounters.

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Published September 3, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.