BetGenius

Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Checking status…
La LigaLa Liga
Kickoff
Sat, Sep 5, 02:15 PM
Round
Regular Season - 4
Venue
San Mamés, Bilbao
Referee
José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain

Recent form

Athletic Club
31Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-0D-4L · -5 goal difference

Atletico Madrid
59Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-1D-1L · +2 goal difference

Our verdict

Strong
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Atletico Madrid or Draw
Confidence76%

BetGenius backs Atletico Madrid or Draw (Double Chance) at 76% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Athletic Club welcome Atletico Madrid to San Mames for matchday four of the La Liga campaign. The hosts have experienced a mixed opening to their season, collecting three points from three matches with one victory and two defeats, including a 3-1 home loss to Sevilla before rebounding with a 2-0 win at Celta Vigo.

Atletico Madrid have started brightly and sit third in the table with seven points from their opening three fixtures. Diego Simeone's side remain unbeaten in the league following a 3-1 away victory against Sevilla, a 2-2 draw with Villarreal, and an opening 2-0 win over Malaga, powered by strong early-season form from Alex Baena who has registered three goals and an assist.

Historical meetings between these two sides have traditionally been tightly contested, with Atletico Madrid claiming six victories to Athletic Club's four across their last ten encounters. Given Atletico's solid early momentum and Athletic Club's defensive absences, the visitors carry the upper hand heading into this clash.

Key factors

  • Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in La Liga this season with two wins and one draw from three matches.
  • Alex Baena has contributed directly to four goals for Atletico Madrid with three goals and one assist.
  • Athletic Club have lost two of their opening three league fixtures, conceding five goals.
  • Athletic Club will be without injured defenders Dani Vivian and Unai Egiluz, along with midfielder Benat Prados Diaz.
  • Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these teams have produced under 2.5 total goals, averaging 2.0 goals per match.

Team news

Athletic Club

  • U. EgiluzKnee Injury
  • B. Prados DiazThigh Injury
  • D. VivianHamstring Injury
  • N. SerranoCoach's decision

Team news last updated Sep 5 (4 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Atletico Madrid

  • A. SorlothMuscle Injury
  • A. OrtizRed Card
  • O. VargasCoach's decision

Statistical comparison

Athletic Club at home vs Atletico Madrid away
1
Played
—
0-0-1
W-D-L
—
—
Scored /game
—
—
Conceded /game
—
—
Clean sheets
—
—
Failed to score
—
40%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
80%

Key players this season

Atletico Madrid

  • Álex Baena3G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
4Real BetisChampions League league stage409
5Deportivo La CorunaEuropa League league stage4+38
6SevillaECL Playoffs4+17
7Atletico Madrid4+17
8Osasuna4-17
9Real Sociedad5-27
10Athletic Club4+16
11Levante405
12Espanyol4+14
13Racing Santander4-14

Head-to-head

Full record →
Athletic Club
4
Draws
0
Atletico Madrid
6

Atletico Madrid have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.0 goals a game, only 30% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-04-25Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club
  • 2025-12-06Athletic Club 1-0 Atletico Madrid
  • 2025-03-01Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Club
  • 2024-08-31Athletic Club 0-1 Atletico Madrid
  • 2024-04-27Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club

Our record in La Liga

62%24 won from 39 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Atletico Madrid or Draw
Confidence76%

Atletico Madrid arrive unbeaten in three league matches, having picked up seven points while scoring seven goals across their opening fixtures. Athletic Club have suffered two defeats in three league games, including a loss in their sole home match against Sevilla. Furthermore, Athletic are dealing with key defensive absences such as Dani Vivian and Benat Prados Diaz. While San Mames is a demanding venue, Atletico's attacking efficiency and solid form give them the advantage to avoid defeat in a match that has historically produced low goal totals, with under 2.5 goals landing in 70 percent of their last ten head-to-head encounters.

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Published September 3, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.