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Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo prediction

Checking status…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 23, 09:30 PM
Round
Regular Season - 24
Venue
Arena Condá, Chapecó
Referee
Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil

Recent form

Chapecoense-sc
35Poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-1D-3L · -4 goal difference

Sao Paulo
61Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-2D-1L · +2 goal difference

Our verdict

Strong
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Sao Paulo or Draw
Confidence78%

BetGenius backs Sao Paulo or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Chapecoense-sc enter this Serie A fixture rooted to the bottom of the table in 20th place with just 11 points from 22 matches. Having secured only a single victory all season (1 win, 8 draws, 13 defeats), the hosts are dealing with severe defensive vulnerability, having conceded 46 goals in total and averaging 2.5 goals conceded per match at home.

Sao Paulo sit in 13th place with 27 points from 22 games (7 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses). While their away record has been modest (2 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses), they face an opponent dealing with major squad depletion, as Chapecoense are missing eight players due to injury, illness, and suspension.

The most recent meeting between these sides earlier in the 2026 season saw Sao Paulo claim a 2-0 home victory over Chapecoense-sc. With key striker J. Calleri leading the line with 7 goals on the campaign, the visitors hold the upper hand against a struggling host.

Key factors

  • Chapecoense-sc have won only 1 match out of 22 in Serie A this season (1 win, 8 draws, 13 losses).
  • Chapecoense-sc have conceded 46 goals in 22 games, including an average of 2.5 goals conceded per home fixture.
  • Chapecoense-sc have eight players listed out, including suspended Victor Caetano and injured Y. Bolasie, Rafael Carvalheira, Mauricio Garcez, Robert Conceicao, Max Alves, and Joao Paulo.
  • Sao Paulo defeated Chapecoense-sc 2-0 in their most recent meeting on 2026-03-12.
  • 70% of the last 10 head-to-head fixtures between the two clubs have finished under 2.5 total goals.

Team news

Chapecoense-sc

  • Joao PauloHealth problems
  • Max AlvesInjury
  • Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
  • Y. BolasieInjury
  • Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
  • Bruno PachecoYellow Cards
  • Bruno TubaraoInactive
  • Vinicius BalieiroInactive

Sao Paulo

  • Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
  • Lucca MarquesJaw injury
  • D. BobadillaInactive
  • Victor SaInactive

Team news last updated Sep 5 (4 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Statistical comparison

Chapecoense-sc at home vs Sao Paulo away
12
Played
13
2-5-5
W-D-L
2-3-8
1.4
Scored /game
0.8
2.3
Conceded /game
1.4
17%
Clean sheets
8%
25%
Failed to score
31%
60%
BTTS (last 5)
80%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.2 goals per game (Chapecoense-sc at home plus Sao Paulo away).

Key players this season

Sao Paulo

  • Luciano8G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
7CoritibaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)26-137
8Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+236
9RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+335
10Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+333
11VitoriaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)26-1232
12Corinthians26032
13Santos25-132
17Vasco DA GamaRelegation - Serie B25-1325
18InternacionalRelegation - Serie B26-625
19RemoRelegation - Serie B26-1323
20Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B25-2317

Head-to-head

Full record →
Chapecoense-sc
3
Draws
3
Sao Paulo
4

Sao Paulo have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.3 goals a game, only 30% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-08-23Chapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao Paulo
  • 2026-03-12Sao Paulo 2-0 Chapecoense-sc
  • 2021-10-03Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Sao Paulo
  • 2021-06-16Sao Paulo 1-1 Chapecoense-sc
  • 2019-11-03Chapecoense-SC 0-3 Sao Paulo

Our record in Serie A

62%24 won from 39 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Sao Paulo or Draw
Confidence78%

Chapecoense-sc have won just 1 of their 22 league matches this season and are missing eight squad members, including suspended Victor Caetano and injured Y. Bolasie, Rafael Carvalheira, and Mauricio Garcez. Sao Paulo have already beaten Chapecoense 2-0 earlier in 2026 and have a significantly stronger defensive foundation (26 goals conceded vs 46 conceded by Chapecoense).

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Published August 23, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.