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Sun 11 Oct · 21:30

Gremio vs Internacional prediction

Follow GremioFollow InternacionalFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 30
Venue
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee
Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Gremio
39Poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-3D-2L · -2 goal difference

Internacional
44Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · -1 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Gremio or Draw

BetGenius backs Gremio or Draw (Double Chance) at 72% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

72%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

A crucial relegation battle takes center stage in Serie A as 18th-placed Gremio host 17th-placed Internacional in the Grenal derby. Both clubs sit inside the bottom four separated by just a single point, with Internacional on 31 points and Gremio on 30. With top-flight survival hanging in the balance, tension will be exceptionally high.

Gremio have relied heavily on their home form throughout the campaign. All seven of their league victories have come at home, where they hold a record of seven wins, four draws, and three losses, compared to a winless record away. Leading scorer Carlos Vinicius, who has 10 goals, spearheads an attack that averages 1.6 goals per home match, although the hosts enter this fixture winless in their last five league games.

Internacional picked up a 2-1 victory over Corinthians in their previous outing, but their away form has produced only three wins across 14 trips, alongside five draws and six defeats. In addition, Internacional fell 3-1 at this venue in the Copa do Brasil just last month, making Gremio the side with the situational edge on their own turf.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Gremio have secured all seven of their Serie A victories at home, going unbeaten in 11 of 14 home league fixtures with seven wins and four draws.
  2. Internacional have won only three of their 14 away league matches, suffering six defeats and drawing five.
  3. Five of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the two sides have ended in draws, with 60 percent of those games finishing under 2.5 goals.
  4. Internacional have lost their last two visits to Gremio across all competitions in 2026 by scorelines of 3-1 and 3-0.
  5. Internacional will be without goalkeeper S. Rochet and outfield players Kayky and Juninho through injury, while Gremio are missing suspended midfielder Dodi.
Availability

Team news

Gremio

  • WallaceYellow Cards
  • J. CabralInactive
  • Matheus NascimentoInactive

Team news last updated Oct 18 (6 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Internacional

  • AnthoniKnee Injury
  • KaykyAnkle Injury
  • G. MaripanMuscle Injury
  • S. RochetLower Back Injury
  • Matheus CunhaRed Card
  • G. MercadoYellow Cards
  • R. VillagraYellow Cards
  • VitinhoYellow Cards
  • AllexInactive
  • A. SanabriaInactive
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Gremio at homeInternacional away
15
Played
16
7-5-3
W-D-L
3-6-7
1.5
Scored /game
0.9
1.1
Conceded /game
1.4
27%
Clean sheets
13%
20%
Failed to score
38%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.4 goals per game (Gremio at home plus Internacional away).

Players

Key players this season

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius11G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
14Mirassol31-836
15Vasco DA Gama30-735
16Corinthians31-733
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
18GremioRelegation - Serie B31-1031
19RemoRelegation - Serie B31-1526
20Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B30-3218
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
3
Gremio
5
Draws
2
Internacional

Gremio have won 3 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.6 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

  • 2026-09-03Gremio3-1Internacional
  • 2026-08-27Internacional0-0Gremio
  • 2026-04-11Internacional0-0Gremio
  • 2026-03-08Internacional1-1Gremio
  • 2026-03-01Gremio3-0Internacional
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Gremio or Draw
72%
Confidence

Gremio have collected every one of their seven league wins this season at home, recording seven wins, four draws, and only three defeats in 14 home fixtures. Internacional have managed three wins from 14 away games in the league. Head-to-head history also favors the hosts at this ground in 2026, including a 3-1 Copa do Brasil victory in September and a 3-0 state championship win in March. With both teams locked in the relegation zone, the stakes suggest a tightly contested derby where Gremio are well-positioned to take at least a point.

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Published October 10, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.