BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 25
Venue
Kuressaare Linnastaadion, Kuressaare
Referee
J. Frischer
Form

Recent form

Kuressaare
29Very poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-1D-3L · -5 goal difference

Vaprus
35Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -5 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Kuressaare or Vaprus

BetGenius backs Kuressaare or Vaprus (Double Chance) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

74%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Kuressaare host Vaprus in Round 25 of the Meistriliiga in a clash carrying significant weight in the bottom half of the table. Kuressaare enter the fixture placed 9th in the relegation play-off position with 24 points from 24 matches, trailing 7th-placed Vaprus by just three points. The hosts have experienced a mixed run of form, recording recent league wins over Flora Tallinn (3-2) and Laagri (3-2), offset by 1-0 defeats against Tammeka and Paide.

Vaprus sit on 27 points from 23 league matches and will be looking to rebound from successive league losses against Kalju Nomme (1-3) and Flora Tallinn (1-2). Away from home, Vaprus have secured three wins from 11 matches while conceding 24 goals, though they have enjoyed positive outcomes in recent head-to-head encounters against Kuressaare.

Previous league meetings this season between these two sides have been tight, low-scoring affairs decided by single-goal margins, with Vaprus winning 1-0 at home in June and 1-0 on Kuressaare's pitch in April. With both sides drawing very infrequently throughout the campaign, an open and decisive encounter is anticipated.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Kuressaare (3 draws in 24 games) and Vaprus (3 draws in 23 games) have drawn a combined total of only six league matches this season.
  2. Vaprus have won both Meistriliiga meetings against Kuressaare in 2026 by identical 1-0 scorelines.
  3. None of the previous seven head-to-head fixtures between Kuressaare and Vaprus have ended in a draw.
  4. Kuressaare have failed to score in 12 of their 24 league fixtures this campaign.
  5. Only three points separate 7th-placed Vaprus (27 points) from 9th-placed Kuressaare (24 points) in the standings.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Kuressaare at homeVaprus away
14
Played
14
5-3-6
W-D-L
3-2-9
1.3
Scored /game
0.9
1.6
Conceded /game
2.3
14%
Clean sheets
14%
43%
Failed to score
29%
60%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
80%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 2.2 goals per game (Kuressaare at home plus Vaprus away).

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
4Kalju Nomme32+2151
5Tammeka33-550
6Laagri33047
7Vaprus33-2236
8Kuressaare32-1735
9Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga (Relegation)33-2234
10Trans NarvaRelegation - Esiliiga33-4920
History

Head-to-head

3
Kuressaare
1
Draws
6
Vaprus

Vaprus have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.9 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-06-26Vaprus1-0Kuressaare
  • 2026-04-21Kuressaare0-1Vaprus
  • 2026-01-31Vaprus9-2Kuressaare
  • 2025-10-21Vaprus0-1Kuressaare
  • 2025-07-20Kuressaare2-1Vaprus
BetGenius

Our record in Meistriliiga

60%29 won from 48 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Kuressaare or Vaprus
74%
Confidence

Both clubs have registered an exceptionally low number of draws in the league this season, with Kuressaare drawing only 3 of their 24 fixtures and Vaprus drawing just 3 of their 23 matches. Furthermore, none of the last seven head-to-head meetings between them have finished level, making a decisive result for either side the statistically favoured outcome. Double Chance provides a well-supported hedge against match variance.

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Published August 27, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.