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Wed 16 Sept · 17:00

Paide vs Vaprus prediction

Round
Regular Season - 22
Venue
Paide linnastaadion, Paide
Referee
K. Kaivoja
Form

Recent form

Paide
60Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +2 goal difference

Vaprus
35Poor

Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -5 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Paide or Draw

BetGenius backs Paide or Draw (Double Chance) at 78% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.

78%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Paide welcome Vaprus to their home ground aiming to tighten their grip on fourth place in the Meistriliiga standings. The hosts enter this fixture on 45 points, having picked up seven victories from their 12 home matches this campaign while maintaining a sturdy defensive record that concedes an average of just 1.0 goal per game in front of their own supporters.

Vaprus sit seventh in the table with 34 points from 27 fixtures, but their away form has been a major vulnerability throughout the season. Having suffered eight defeats in 13 road outings while conceding 30 goals on their travels, they face a challenging task against an opponent that has traditionally held the upper hand in this match-up.

Head-to-head encounters heavily lean towards Paide, who have won seven of the last ten meetings between the two clubs across all competitions, including five of the six staged at Paide. With the hosts looking to build momentum and Vaprus struggling to keep things tight away from home, Paide have the platform to control proceedings.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Paide have won five of their six home matches against Vaprus across their last ten head-to-head meetings.
  2. Vaprus have struggled on their travels, suffering eight defeats in 13 away fixtures while conceding 30 goals.
  3. Paide hold a solid home defensive record, conceding an average of 1.0 goal per game across 12 home league matches.
  4. Vaprus concede an average of 2.3 goals per away match in the league this season.
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Paide at homeVaprus away
14
Played
14
8-1-5
W-D-L
3-2-9
1.4
Scored /game
0.9
1
Conceded /game
2.3
36%
Clean sheets
14%
14%
Failed to score
29%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 2.3 goals per game (Paide at home plus Vaprus away).

Players

Key players this season

Paide

  • Daniel Cabral5G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
1FC Levadia TallinnPromotion - Champions League (Qualification)32+6581
2Flora TallinnPromotion - Conference League (Qualification)33+1658
3PaidePromotion - Conference League (Qualification)32+1357
4Kalju Nomme32+2151
5Tammeka33-550
6Laagri33047
7Vaprus33-2236
8Kuressaare32-1735
9Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga (Relegation)33-2234
10Trans NarvaRelegation - Esiliiga33-4920
History

Head-to-head

7
Paide
0
Draws
3
Vaprus

Paide have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.2 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-07-04Paide3-1Vaprus
  • 2026-05-06Paide2-0Vaprus
  • 2026-03-07Vaprus3-2Paide
  • 2025-11-02Paide3-0Vaprus
  • 2025-08-30Vaprus1-0Paide
BetGenius

Our record in Meistriliiga

60%29 won from 48 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Paide or Draw
78%
Confidence

Paide have demonstrated consistent home form with seven wins and just one draw from 12 league games on home turf, conceding only 12 goals in that stretch. In contrast, Vaprus have lost eight of their 13 away matches and allow an average of 2.3 goals per game on the road. Paide have also won five of the six past encounters against Vaprus played at their home ground, making them well positioned to secure at least a point.

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Published September 14, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.