Last 5 matches · 2W-0D-3L · -6 goal difference
Last 5 matches · 0W-1D-4L · -9 goal difference
BetGenius backs Over 2.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
Relegation zone rivals collide in the Virsliga as ninth-placed Tukums host bottom club Ogre United in round 29. Tukums enter the fixture with a six-point cushion over their opponents, having amassed 20 points from 28 games, while Ogre United sit at the foot of the table on 14 points from 27 matches.
Home advantage has provided Tukums with their most productive football this campaign, earning four wins and four draws from 14 home matches while scoring 25 goals at an average of 1.8 per contest. Conversely, Ogre United have endured serious difficulties on the road, suffering 11 defeats in 14 away trips and conceding 43 goals at a rate of 3.1 per fixture.
Defensive fragility has been a common theme for both teams, as Ogre United have conceded 71 goals overall and Tukums have let in 58. Their previous meetings this season underline that trend, having generated 14 goals across three encounters, including a dominant 6-1 home victory for Tukums in May.
Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Tukums at home plus Ogre United away).
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Super Nova | 27 | -10 | 32 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 29 | -16 | 31 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 29 | -31 | 24 |
| 9 | Tukums | 29 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 28 | -46 | 14 |
Tukums have won 2 of the last 4 meetings, averaging 4.3 goals a game, both teams scored in 100% of them.
Both defences have leaked goals consistently throughout the season. Ogre United concede an average of 3.1 goals per game away from home and have conceded at least three goals in four of their last five matches. Tukums average 1.8 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.6 on home soil. The three head-to-head fixtures between the sides this campaign produced scorelines of 1-1, 6-1, and 3-2, averaging 4.67 goals per match.
Over 2.5 Goals — 75% confidence
Both defences have leaked goals consistently throughout the season. Ogre United concede an average of 3.1 goals per game away from home and have conceded at least three goals in four of their last five matches. Tukums average 1.8 goals scored per home game while conceding 1.6 on home soil. The three head-to-head fixtures between the sides this campaign produced scorelines of 1-1, 6-1, and 3-2, averaging 4.67 goals per match.
Tukums or Draw — 76% confidence
Tukums have avoided defeat in eight of their 14 home league matches, including four victories, and previously defeated Ogre United 6-1 at home. Ogre United have lost 11 of their 14 away fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five matches in the league. Backing Tukums to win or draw covers the most frequent outcomes suggested by the visitors poor away record.
These two calls are about different parts of the match (total goals and double chance), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.
Tukums have avoided defeat in eight of their 14 home league matches, including four victories, and previously defeated Ogre United 6-1 at home. Ogre United have lost 11 of their 14 away fixtures and enter this match having lost four of their last five matches in the league. Backing Tukums to win or draw covers the most frequent outcomes suggested by the visitors poor away record.
Published September 3, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.
