KuPS

KuPS have lost only two of their 13 home league matches this season and hold a dominant record against VPS, having won six and drawn three of their last ten meetings. VPS have dropped six of their 13 away fixtures and failed to score when these two teams met in September. While KuPS have suffered a dip in their last few outings, covering the home win alongside the draw reflects their superior season-long metrics and strong historical record in this matchup.

KuPS have struggled in front of goal recently, failing to score in consecutive 1-0 losses against Inter Turku and AC Oulu. Every one of their last five matches in all competitions has finished with two goals or fewer, indicating a defensive setup that prioritises organisation over expansive play. Trabzonspor have demonstrated higher offensive output with recent 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0 victories, while keeping clean sheets in all three of those wins. Despite missing Batagov, Malinovskyi, and Yokuslu through knee injuries, Trabzonspor possess the quality to control the flow and secure at least a point away from home.

KuPS or Draw — 76% confidence

KuPS have been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, suffering only one defeat in twelve league fixtures while winning six. They also boast five wins from six previous home meetings against AC Oulu. In contrast, Oulu enter this encounter on a three-match losing streak and have lost six of their twelve away games in the league.

Under 2.5 Goals — 72% confidence

All five of KuPS's last five matches across all competitions have stayed under 2.5 goals, with scorelines of 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-0. Similarly, four of AC Oulu's last five games have produced two goals or fewer, largely driven by an attack that has been shut out in three of their last four outings.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

All five of KuPS's last five matches across all competitions have stayed under 2.5 goals, with scorelines of 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, and 1-0. Similarly, four of AC Oulu's last five games have produced two goals or fewer, largely driven by an attack that has been shut out in three of their last four outings.

KuPS have been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, suffering only one defeat in twelve league fixtures while winning six. They also boast five wins from six previous home meetings against AC Oulu. In contrast, Oulu enter this encounter on a three-match losing streak and have lost six of their twelve away games in the league.

AC Oulu have scored only one goal across their last four matches, failing to register against SJK, VPS, and Inter Turku. KuPS have kept eight clean sheets this season and have conceded only 24 goals in 25 league fixtures, making a clean sheet for at least one side a strong possibility.

KuPS have shown consistent scoring output at home, averaging 1.8 goals per match and scoring 21 goals in 12 home fixtures. AC Oulu concede an average of 1.4 goals per away game, having shipped 17 goals across 12 away fixtures. Across their last ten head-to-head clashes, the sides have averaged 3.1 goals per game, with eight of those ten matches producing at least two goals. While both teams have had several tight scorelines in recent weeks that make reaching three or more goals less dependable, the combined profile of KuPS at home and Oulu on the road strongly indicates that at least two goals will be scored.

KuPS have lost just twice in twelve away league matches this season, conceding only 0.8 goals per game on the road. In addition, head-to-head history is strongly in their favor, having avoided defeat in nine of their last ten encounters with VPS. Given VPS have recorded three losses in their last six home matches, backing KuPS to secure at least a point offers strong probability coverage.

KuPS have been extremely tough to beat on their own patch this season, losing just one of their 11 home league fixtures. HJK Helsinki have already dropped points in six of their 11 away matches, losing four. Furthermore, KuPS have dominated recent encounters between the sides, remaining unbeaten in four consecutive home meetings against HJK and claiming a 4-0 away win in June. Backing KuPS to take at least a point covers both the home win and the draw outcomes.

KuPS have established a clear edge in this head-to-head series, recording seven wins and two draws across nine all-time meetings without suffering a defeat. Both regular-season clashes between the two sides in 2026 finished in 1-0 victories for KuPS. Away from home, KuPS have allowed just 0.8 goals per game, losing only two of 11 road matches. While Gnistan have shown improved form over their last four outings, KuPS possess the defensive stability to limit their scoring chances and take at least a point.

KuPS lead the division and have lost only two of their 21 league matches this campaign, including just one defeat in ten away fixtures. Inter Turku have drawn five of their ten home games and have failed to beat KuPS in their last six home meetings, where KuPS recorded three wins and three draws. Backing KuPS to secure at least a point aligns with their consistent away record and commanding head-to-head advantage.

KuPS earned a balanced 1-1 result in Dublin and now return home, where they should hold the upper hand in controlling tempo. Shamrock Rovers have had significant defensive lapses on recent travels, conceding five goals away at Egnatia Rrogozhinë and three away at St Patrick's Athletic, making KuPS to avoid defeat the sturdiest outcome call.

Both teams have consistently demonstrated offensive potency paired with defensive fragility. Every recorded completed fixture in KuPS's last five outings has seen both teams score (2-4, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1), and Shamrock Rovers have similarly seen both teams find the net in each of their last four recorded matches (1-1, 2-3, 1-5, 3-2), including their 1-1 draw in the first leg.