BetGenius
Serie ASerie A
Full time
1-1
Sat 19 Sept · 20:00

Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc prediction

Follow Atletico-MGFollow Chapecoense-scFollow this match
Round
Regular Season - 28
Venue
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Referee
Raphael Claus, Brazil

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Atletico-MG
86Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-1D-0L · +6 goal difference

Chapecoense-sc
17Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -8 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Combo Bet
Atletico-MG to win + Atletico-MG Over 1.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Atletico-MG to win + Atletico-MG Over 1.5 Goals (Combo Bet) at 73% confidence — a solid call.

73%
Confidence
Solid
Preview

Match preview

Atletico-MG return to home soil looking to consolidate their standing in the upper half of the table, sitting seventh with 39 points from 26 matches. Their form at home has been notably dependable, securing seven wins and four draws from twelve fixtures while scoring 22 goals and failing to score in only one home outing all season.

In contrast, Chapecoense-sc arrive at the bottom of the table in 20th place with just 17 points and a league-worst defensive tally of 52 goals conceded across 26 matches. On the road, they have collected only one victory from thirteen attempts while conceding 23 times and failing to record a single away clean sheet.

The head-to-head dynamic also favours the hosts, who earned an emphatic 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. With Chapecoense missing multiple players through injury and suspension, Atletico-MG hold a substantial advantage across all key statistical metrics.

Availability

Team news

Atletico-MG

  • M. CassierraInjury
  • EversonFoot Injury
  • FredInjury
  • Gustavo ScarpaMuscle Injury
  • Ruan TressoldiMuscle Injury
  • A. FrancoYellow Cards

Team news last updated Oct 17 (7 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Chapecoense-sc

  • HeitorHamstring Injury
  • Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
  • Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
  • Vinicius BalieiroKnee Injury
  • KauanYellow Cards
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Atletico-MG at homeChapecoense-sc away
6
Played
16
5-1-0
W-D-L
1-4-11
2.5
Scored /game
0.7
0.8
Conceded /game
1.8
50%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
Failed to score
44%
40%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
60%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 3.2 goals per game (Atletico-MG at home plus Chapecoense-sc away).

Table

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
3Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+1253
4CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)31+451
5FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)31+1051
6Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+750
7BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+549
8SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+245
9Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)31+142
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
18GremioRelegation - Serie B31-1031
19RemoRelegation - Serie B31-1526
20Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B30-3218
History

Head-to-head

Full record →
2
Atletico-MG
5
Draws
3
Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc have won 3 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.7 goals a game.

  • 2026-04-02Chapecoense-sc0-4Atletico-MG
  • 2021-10-06Chapecoense-sc2-2Atletico-MG
  • 2021-06-21Atletico-MG1-1Chapecoense-sc
  • 2019-10-30Atletico-MG0-2Chapecoense-SC
  • 2019-07-14Chapecoense-SC1-2Atletico-MG
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

4 published markets

FeaturedLOST
Combo Bet
Atletico-MG to win + Atletico-MG Over 1.5 Goals
73%
Both must land · no better than

Atletico-MG to win — 76% confidence

Atletico-MG have lost just once in twelve home league matches this campaign, winning seven and averaging 1.8 goals scored per game. They face a Chapecoense side that sits 20th with nine defeats in thirteen away trips and zero away clean sheets, making a home victory the most probable outcome.

Atletico-MG Over 1.5 Goals — 73% confidence

Atletico-MG have scored at least two goals in each of their last three home fixtures, posting tallies of four against Santos, three against Fluminense, and two against Cruzeiro. Chapecoense concede an average of 1.8 goals per away match and have conceded 52 goals in 26 league fixtures overall.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (match winner and team total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Combo BetLOST
Team Total Goals
Atletico-MG Over 1.5 Goals
73%
Confidence

Atletico-MG have scored at least two goals in each of their last three home fixtures, posting tallies of four against Santos, three against Fluminense, and two against Cruzeiro. Chapecoense concede an average of 1.8 goals per away match and have conceded 52 goals in 26 league fixtures overall.

Combo BetLOST
Match Winner
Atletico-MG to win
76%
Confidence

Atletico-MG have lost just once in twelve home league matches this campaign, winning seven and averaging 1.8 goals scored per game. They face a Chapecoense side that sits 20th with nine defeats in thirteen away trips and zero away clean sheets, making a home victory the most probable outcome.

Combo BetLOST
Total Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
Confidence

Matches at Atletico-MG's ground have averaged over three total goals per game this season, with 37 combined goals across twelve matches. Chapecoense's defence averages two goals conceded per match across the entire season, pointing towards another open encounter.

Explore

More from BetGenius

Understand these picks

Other Serie A predictions

Teams around them in the table

FlamengoPalmeirasAtletico ParanaenseCruzeiroFluminenseBahia
All Serie A predictions →

Published September 18, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.