Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

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Bundesliga

Kickoff

Sun, Sep 6, 01:30 PM

Round

Regular Season - 2

Venue

Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany

Recent form

Hamburger SV

52Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · +1 goal difference

FSV Mainz 05

78Strong

Last 5 matches · 3W-2D-0L · +14 goal difference

Our verdict

Solid

Market

Double Chance

Pick

Hamburger SV or Draw

Confidence68%

BetGenius backs Hamburger SV or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

Match preview

Hamburger SV host FSV Mainz 05 on matchday two of the Bundesliga campaign, with both sides searching for their first league victory of the season. Hamburg opened their schedule with a 2-0 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund, while Mainz were held to a scoreless 0-0 draw at home against SC Paderborn 07.

Recent meetings between the two clubs provide encouraging signs for the hosts. Hamburg took four points from Mainz across their two league clashes in the 2025-26 season, securing a 4-0 victory at home before earning a 1-1 draw on the road. The broader head-to-head history across ten matches is tightly contested, featuring three wins for each side alongside four draws.

Absences in key positions may heavily influence the flow of this match. Mainz travel with several confirmed injuries, with Dominik Kohr, Eric Martel, Paul Nebel, Silas, and Benedict Hollerbach all sidelined. Hamburg face selection adjustments of their own with Miro Muheim, Aymen Rossing-Lelesiit, and Warmed Omari unavailable, but the home advantage and Mainz's extensive injury list give the hosts a slight edge.

Key factors

Hamburg took four points from Mainz across two meetings in the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign, including a 4-0 home win.
Mainz travel with five injured players unavailable, including Dominik Kohr, Eric Martel, Paul Nebel, Silas, and Benedict Hollerbach.
Hamburg have avoided defeat in four of their last five home matches against Mainz, winning two and drawing two.
Both teams failed to score in their opening league fixture, with Hamburg losing 2-0 at Dortmund and Mainz drawing 0-0 with Paderborn.

Team news

Hamburger SV

M. MuheimMuscle Injury
A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury

W. OmariPersonal Reasons

FSV Mainz 05

B. HollerbachLacking Match Fitness
E. MartelKnee Injury
P. NebelMuscle Injury
SilasBroken shinbone
D. KohrInjury

Statistical comparison

Hamburger SV at home vs FSV Mainz 05 away

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Played

—

W-D-L

—

Scored /game

—

Conceded /game

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

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60%

BTTS (last 5)

40%

80%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

80%

Key players this season

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz2G
S. Becker2A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
2	SC FreiburgChampions League league stage	2	+4	6
3	Borussia DortmundChampions League league stage	2	+3	6
4	SV ElversbergChampions League league stage	2	+2	6
5	FSV Mainz 05Europa League league stage	2	+5	4
6	Bayern MünchenQualifying	2	+4	4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+3	3
8	RB Leipzig	2	+1	3
15	Union Berlin	2	-4	1
16	1899 HoffenheimRelegation Playoffs	2	-2	0
17	Borussia MönchengladbachRelegation	2	-4	0
18	Hamburger SVRelegation	2	-7	0

Head-to-head

Full record →

Hamburger SV

Draws

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.7 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

2026-09-06Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05
2026-02-20FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV
2025-10-05Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05
2018-03-03Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05
2017-10-14FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SV

Our record in Bundesliga

73%16 won from 22 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Market

Double Chance

Pick

Hamburger SV or Draw

Confidence68%

Hamburg have proven difficult for Mainz to break down at the Volksparkstadion, avoiding defeat in four of their last five home encounters in this matchup, including a 4-0 win in October 2025. Mainz arrive missing five key squad members through injury, which limits their attacking and midfield options. Following an opening round where both teams failed to score, Hamburg are well placed on home soil to take at least a point in a low-scoring affair.

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Team news

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

FSV Mainz 05

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Bundesliga

1 published market

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