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Sun 6 Sept · 14:30

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 2
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Referee: Tobias Reichel, Germany

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Form

Recent form

Hamburger SV

80Excellent

Last 5 matches · 4W-0D-1L · 0 goal difference

FSV Mainz 05

62Average

Last 5 matches · 3W-0D-2L · +2 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance

Hamburger SV or Draw

BetGenius backs Hamburger SV or Draw (Double Chance) at 68% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

68%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Hamburger SV host FSV Mainz 05 on matchday two of the Bundesliga campaign, with both sides searching for their first league victory of the season. Hamburg opened their schedule with a 2-0 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund, while Mainz were held to a scoreless 0-0 draw at home against SC Paderborn 07.

Recent meetings between the two clubs provide encouraging signs for the hosts. Hamburg took four points from Mainz across their two league clashes in the 2025-26 season, securing a 4-0 victory at home before earning a 1-1 draw on the road. The broader head-to-head history across ten matches is tightly contested, featuring three wins for each side alongside four draws.

Absences in key positions may heavily influence the flow of this match. Mainz travel with several confirmed injuries, with Dominik Kohr, Eric Martel, Paul Nebel, Silas, and Benedict Hollerbach all sidelined. Hamburg face selection adjustments of their own with Miro Muheim, Aymen Rossing-Lelesiit, and Warmed Omari unavailable, but the home advantage and Mainz's extensive injury list give the hosts a slight edge.

Analysis

Key factors

Hamburg took four points from Mainz across two meetings in the 2025-26 Bundesliga campaign, including a 4-0 home win.
Mainz travel with five injured players unavailable, including Dominik Kohr, Eric Martel, Paul Nebel, Silas, and Benedict Hollerbach.
Hamburg have avoided defeat in four of their last five home matches against Mainz, winning two and drawing two.
Both teams failed to score in their opening league fixture, with Hamburg losing 2-0 at Dortmund and Mainz drawing 0-0 with Paderborn.

Availability

Team news

Hamburger SV

N. RembergKnee Injury
M. VuskovicDoping

FSV Mainz 05

D. KohrFoot Injury
SilasBroken shinbone
O. RuoppiKnee Injury
R. ZentnerHand Injury

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Hamburger SV at homeFSV Mainz 05 away

Played

2-0-1

W-D-L

3-0-0

Scored /game

3.3

Conceded /game

—

Clean sheets

—

Failed to score

—

40%

BTTS (last 5)

60%

Over 2.5 (last 5)

80%

Combined scoring rate: 4.3 goals per game (Hamburger SV at home plus FSV Mainz 05 away).

Players

Key players this season

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz5G
S. Becker3A

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
2	Borussia DortmundChampions League league stage	6	+7	14
3	SC FreiburgChampions League league stage	6	+9	13
4	Bayer LeverkusenChampions League league stage	6	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05Europa League league stage	6	+4	10
6	SV ElversbergQualifying	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	-9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	-3	7

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

2
Hamburger SV: 4
Draws: 4
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 have won 4 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.7 goals a game, 60% went over 2.5.

2026-09-06Hamburger SV0-5FSV Mainz 05
2026-02-20FSV Mainz 051-1Hamburger SV
2025-10-05Hamburger SV4-0FSV Mainz 05
2018-03-03Hamburger SV0-0FSV Mainz 05
2017-10-14FSV Mainz 053-2Hamburger SV

BetGenius

Our record in Bundesliga

66%52 won from 79 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedLOST

Double Chance

Hamburger SV or Draw

68%

Confidence

Hamburg have proven difficult for Mainz to break down at the Volksparkstadion, avoiding defeat in four of their last five home encounters in this matchup, including a 4-0 win in October 2025. Mainz arrive missing five key squad members through injury, which limits their attacking and midfield options. Following an opening round where both teams failed to score, Hamburg are well placed on home soil to take at least a point in a low-scoring affair.

Explore

Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Recent form

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Team news

Hamburger SV

FSV Mainz 05

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

FSV Mainz 05

Table context

Head-to-head

Our record in Bundesliga

1 published market

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