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Atletico Paranaense
1W 2D 2L · Goals 7–8
5 matches, 8 Oct to 30 Oct
36
Poor
DWLDLLatest →
atGremio
Serie AL0–2
atVitoriaSerie AD1–1
vsPalmeirasSerie AL0–2
atChapecoense-scSerie AW4–1
vsAtletico-MGSerie AD2–2
Full time
1-3
Wed 4 Nov23:30 WAT
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama prediction
- Round
- Regular Season - 34
- Venue
- Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
- Referee
- Ramon Abatti Abel, Brazil
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Double Chance
Atletico Paranaense or Draw
BetGenius backs Atletico Paranaense or Draw (Double Chance) at 72% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 2.5 Goals.
72%
Confidence
Solid
Preview
Match preview
Atletico Paranaense host Vasco DA Gama in round 34 of the Serie A regular season. The home side sit fifth on 54 points, while Vasco are 13th on 38 having played one game fewer. Atletico's home form is the strongest part of the picture: nine wins, five draws and two defeats from 16 matches, with 27 goals scored and 15 conceded. They have conceded 0.9 goals per home game. Vasco's away record is weak, with two wins, five draws and eight defeats in 15 matches and only 15 goals scored on the road.
Recent results also lean towards the home side, though not decisively. Atletico's last five are a defeat to Gremio, a draw with Vitoria, a home defeat to Palmeiras, a 4-1 win at Chapecoense and a 2-2 draw with Atletico-MG. Vasco's last five are a Copa do Brasil defeat at Palmeiras on November 1, a home defeat to Flamengo, a home win over Corinthians, a Sudamericana defeat to Boca Juniors and a 1-0 defeat at Sao Paulo. Vasco have won one of those five, and their midweek cup commitments add to a squad already missing four players.
Head-to-head history is closely balanced. Across 10 meetings each side has won four, with two draws, and the most recent meeting was a 1-0 Vasco win in Rio. The venue record is more informative: Atletico have won three of four meetings at home, while Vasco have won four of six when they were the home side. Atletico are without Claudinho (knee injury) and C. Teran (not selected), while Vasco are missing Cauan Barros, C. Cuesta, A. Gomez and Mateus Carvalho.
Analysis
Key factors
- Atletico's home record is the strongest single signal: nine wins, five draws and two defeats from 16, with just 15 goals conceded.
- Vasco's away form is poor, with two wins from 15 and only 15 goals scored on the road.
- Vasco have four players listed as injured (Cauan Barros, C. Cuesta, A. Gomez, Mateus Carvalho), while Atletico are missing Claudinho and C. Teran.
- Vasco's last five include a Copa do Brasil loss on November 1 and a Sudamericana defeat, adding fixture congestion to their squad issues.
- Head-to-head is evenly split over 10 meetings (four wins each, two draws), with over 2.5 goals in only 40 percent of them.
- Standings context: Atletico are fifth in the Libertadores qualification zone, while Vasco sit 13th, 16 points off that fifth place.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Vasco DA Gama
1W 0D 4L · Goals 5–11
5 matches, 18 Oct to 1 Nov
23
Very poor
LLWLLLatest →
- atPalmeiras
Copa Do BrasilL0–1 
vsFlamengoSerie AL1–4
vsCorinthiansSerie AW3–2
vsBoca Juniors
CONMEBOL SudamericanaL1–3
atSao PauloSerie AL0–1
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
Atletico Paranaense · 3-4-2-1
- 1 Mycael (G)
- 25 Dantas (D)
- 33 Juan Felipe Aguirre (D)
- 4 Arthur Dias (D)
- 29 Gastón Benavídez (M)
- 16 Jádson (M)
- 14 Luiz Gustavo (M)
- 37 Lucas Esquivel (M)
- 18 Kerwin Vargas (F)
- 7 Steven Mendoza (F)
- 9 Kevin Viveros (F)
Vasco DA Gama · 3-5-2
- 1 Léo Jardim (G)
- 4 Alan Saldivia (D)
- 55 Gabriel Pereira (D)
- 30 Robert Renan (D)
- 2 Puma Rodríguez (M)
- 23 Thiago Mendes (M)
- 5 Santiago Sosa (M)
- 22 Alan Lescano (M)
- 66 Cuiabano (M)
- 11 Andrés Gómez (F)
- 20 Brenner (F)
Atletico ParanaenseSubstitutes (12)
- 23SantosG
- 12GilbertoD
- 55Bruno BaldiniD
- 6Leonardo DerikD
- 53DuduM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10Bruno ZapelliM
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8João CruzM
- 19Jorge RivaldoF
- 70Renan Peixoto NepomucenoF
Vasco DA GamaSubstitutes (12)
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 8JairM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 9Facundo ColidioF
- 28AdsonF
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 7DavidF
Starting XIs reported by API-Football, fetched 4 Nov 2026, 23:42 WAT. These are reported lineups, not predicted selections. Late changes may follow.
Atletico Paranaense
- ClaudinhoKnee Injury
- C. TeranInactive
Vasco DA Gama
- Cauan BarrosLeg Injury
- C. CuestaHip Injury
- A. GomezInjury
- Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: Atletico Paranaense: Serie A (2026); Vasco DA Gama: Serie A (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
Atletico Paranaense at homeVasco DA Gama away
16
Played
15
9-5-2
W-D-L
2-5-8
1.7
Scored /game
1
0.9
Conceded /game
1.7
31%
Clean sheets
7%
19%
Failed to score
33%
60% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
60% (5 games)
40% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
60% (5 games)
Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Atletico Paranaense at home plus Vasco DA Gama away).
Players
Key players this season
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros21G
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PalmeirasPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +34 | 70 |
| 3 | CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +6 | 57 |
| 4 | FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 | Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) | 33 | +10 | 54 |
| 6 | BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | +6 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 | RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 11 | CoritibaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 12 | Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 33 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 32 | -9 | 38 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 | GremioRelegation - Serie B | 33 | -7 | 37 |
History
Head-to-head
- 4
- Atletico Paranaense
- 2
- Draws
- 4
- Vasco DA Gama
the last 10 meetings are split 4-4 with 2 drawn, averaging 1.9 goals a game, only 40% went over 2.5.
- 2026-05-10Vasco DA Gama1-0Atletico Paranaense
- 2024-09-12Atletico Paranaense2-1Vasco DA Gama
- 2024-08-29Vasco DA Gama2-1Atletico Paranaense
- 2024-08-27Vasco DA Gama2-1Atletico Paranaense
- 2024-05-05Atletico Paranaense1-0Vasco DA Gama
Prices
Archived pre-match odds
Provider quote time: 4 Nov 2026, 21:02 WAT. Decimal prices. Historical quotes, not current offers. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.
Match Winner
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.21 / 9 |
| Away | 3.31 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 3.20 / 9 |
| Draw | 3.61 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 3.47 / 9 |
Double Chance
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home/Away | 1.30 · William HillNamed quotes (5)
| 1.30 / 7 |
| Home/Draw | 1.39 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.33 / 7 |
| Draw/Away | 1.73 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.67 / 7 |
Goals Over/Under
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 | 1.02 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.02 / 2 |
| Under 5.0 | 1.04 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 1.04 / 1 |
| Over 1.0 | 1.05 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 1.05 / 1 |
| Under 4.75 | 1.05 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.04 / 2 |
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 · BetanoNamed quotes (3)
| 1.05 / 3 |
| Under 5.5 | 1.06 · BetanoNamed quotes (4)
| 1.04 / 4 |
| Over 1.25 | 1.12 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.11 / 2 |
| Under 4.25 | 1.12 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.10 / 2 |
| Under 4.0 | 1.15 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.13 / 2 |
| Under 4.5 | 1.17 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.11 / 7 |
| Over 1.5 | 1.26 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.25 / 7 |
| Under 3.75 | 1.26 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.24 / 2 |
| Over 1.75 | 1.30 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.28 / 2 |
| Over 2.0 | 1.40 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.39 / 5 |
| Under 3.5 | 1.44 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.36 / 7 |
| Under 3.25 | 1.53 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.45 / 4 |
| Over 2.25 | 1.62 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.58 / 4 |
| Under 3.0 | 1.65 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.56 / 5 |
| Under 2.75 | 1.80 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.77 / 4 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.85 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.80 / 7 |
| Over 2.75 | 2.07 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.02 / 4 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.07 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.00 / 7 |
| Under 2.25 | 2.37 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.26 / 4 |
| Over 3.0 | 2.46 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.32 / 5 |
| Over 3.25 | 2.70 · 1xBetNamed quotes (4)
| 2.58 / 4 |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 3.00 / 7 |
| Under 2.0 | 3.15 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.94 / 5 |
| Under 1.75 | 3.29 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.25 / 2 |
| Over 3.75 | 3.61 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.55 / 2 |
| Under 1.5 | 4.03 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 3.90 / 7 |
| Over 4.0 | 5.01 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.93 / 2 |
| Under 1.25 | 5.19 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 5.14 / 2 |
| Over 4.25 | 5.37 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 5.31 / 2 |
| Over 4.5 | 6.00 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 5.65 / 7 |
| Over 4.75 | 7.43 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 7.37 / 2 |
| Under 1.0 | 7.70 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 7.70 / 1 |
| Over 5.0 | 8.55 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 8.55 / 1 |
| Over 5.5 | 11.00 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 10.50 / 5 |
| Under 0.5 | 11.60 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 11.00 / 5 |
| Over 6.5 | 23.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 14.50 / 3 |
| Over 7.5 | 51.00 · Bet365Named quotes (2)
| 31.30 / 2 |
Both Teams Score
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.64 · MarathonbetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.62 / 7 |
| No | 2.25 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 2.20 / 7 |
Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.
BetGenius
Our record in Serie A
63%125 won from 197 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
2 published markets
FeaturedLOST
Double Chance
Atletico Paranaense or Draw
72%
Confidence
Atletico are the stronger side at home. Their 27 home goals and 15 conceded from 16 games, along with 0.9 goals conceded per home match, compare well with Vasco's away record of 15 scored and 25 conceded from 15 games. Vasco also come in with four players unavailable and a recent run of one win in five. On its own, a home win is close to even money rather than a clear favourite, so the draw is included to cover the tight, low-scoring outcome that the head-to-head record (four wins each, two draws in ten) makes plausible. The 2.5 total is close: the combined goal averages of about 2.6 lean slightly towards over, while the head-to-head shows over 2.5 in only 40 percent of meetings, so the total call carries lower confidence than the result pick.
GoalsWON
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
Confidence
Both sides have scored and conceded at around 2.7 goals per game this season, and Atletico have reached at least two goals in each of their last five matches. Vasco have also been involved in several higher-scoring games recently, including 5-goal and 4-goal matches. The head-to-head sample averages 1.9 goals, which is lower, so the case for three goals is weaker than the case for two. Over 1.5 fits this match better than Over 2.5 because the evidence supports two or more goals more firmly than a third. Atletico's solid home defence, with only 0.9 goals conceded per home game, and Vasco's modest away scoring of 1.0 per game both limit how many goals this fixture is likely to produce, which is why the higher line is less supported.
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About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 3 Nov 2026, 00:25 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Atletico Paranaense: 4 Nov 2026, 15:05 WAT; Vasco DA Gama: 4 Nov 2026, 15:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Completed match: published prediction record
This match has finished. The published call is retained for review; see today’s predictions.
Published November 3, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.