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Sao Paulo
2W 1D 2L · Goals 6–7
5 matches, 8 Oct to 29 Oct
47
Average
LWWDLLatest →
atBahia
Serie AL2–3
atMirassolSerie AD1–1
vsVasco DA GamaSerie AW1–0
vsVitoriaSerie AW2–1
atCruzeiroSerie AL0–2
- Round
- Regular Season - 34
- Venue
- Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
- Referee
- R. Claus
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 75% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.
75%
Confidence
Strong
Preview
Match preview
Sao Paulo host Corinthians in a Serie A meeting between two sides in the middle and lower part of the table. Sao Paulo are 10th on 43 points, while Corinthians are 17th on 36 and in the relegation zone. Both enter with notable absences: Sao Paulo have seven players listed as injured or suspended, and Corinthians have several players unavailable.
Goal output in the season data is moderate rather than high. Sao Paulo average 1.6 goals scored at home and concede 0.8 there, while Corinthians score 1.1 away and concede 1.6 away. Blending those venue numbers points to roughly 2 to 2.5 total goals, which fits two or more goals more comfortably than three. Across the last ten matches involving either side, nine finished with two or more goals, but only five reached three.
The head-to-head record is livelier: the last ten meetings averaged 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 in seven and both teams scoring in eight. That history supports an open game, but it comes from a mixed set of competitions and dates, so it supports the lower line more firmly than the higher one.
Analysis
Key factors
- Venue scoring and conceding averages point to a total near 2.3 goals, which supports two or more goals more than three.
- Nine of the last ten matches involving either side reached two or more goals, while only five reached three.
- The head-to-head sample averages 3.3 goals across ten meetings, adding support for an open game.
- Sao Paulo are missing seven players and Corinthians several more, which could limit the attacking output of both sides.
- Corinthians are in the relegation zone and Sao Paulo sit in the lower Copa Sudamericana positions, so both may approach the match cautiously.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Corinthians
1W 1D 3L · Goals 7–10
5 matches, 7 Oct to 30 Oct
40
Poor
LLDLWLatest →
- vsMirassolSerie AW2–0
- atVasco DA GamaSerie AL2–3
- vsVitoriaSerie AD1–1
atPalmeirasSerie AL1–4
atInternacionalSerie AL1–2
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.
Sao Paulo
- ArturBack Injury
- N. BosshardtKnee Injury
- ButaKnee Injury
- D. DuarteKnee Injury
- Marcos AntonioAnkle Injury
- FerreiraInjury
- SabinoYellow Cards
Corinthians
- KaykeKnee Injury
- Z. LabyadKnee Injury
- MatheuzinhoYellow Cards
- M. DepayInactive
- Gabriel PaulistaInactive
- RanieleInactive
- Alex SantanaInactive
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: Sao Paulo: Serie A (2026); Corinthians: Serie A (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
Sao Paulo at homeCorinthians away
16
Played
16
10-3-3
W-D-L
3-5-8
1.6
Scored /game
1.1
0.8
Conceded /game
1.6
38%
Clean sheets
25%
6%
Failed to score
13%
60% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
80% (5 games)
40% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
60% (5 games)
Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Sao Paulo at home plus Corinthians away).
Players
Key players this season
Sao Paulo
- J. Calleri10G
Corinthians
- R. Garro7A
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 | RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 | SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | 0 | 43 |
| 11 | CoritibaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 12 | Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 33 | -8 | 39 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 | GremioRelegation - Serie B | 33 | -7 | 37 |
| 18 | CorinthiansRelegation - Serie B | 33 | -6 | 36 |
| 19 | RemoRelegation - Serie B | 33 | -15 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B | 33 | -35 | 21 |
History
Head-to-head
- 6
- Sao Paulo
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Corinthians
Sao Paulo have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 3.3 goals a game, both teams scored in 80% of them.
- 2026-05-10Corinthians3-2Sao Paulo
- 2026-01-18Corinthians1-1Sao Paulo
- 2025-11-20Corinthians3-1Sao Paulo
- 2025-07-20Sao Paulo2-0Corinthians
- 2025-01-26Sao Paulo3-1Corinthians
Prices
Bookmaker odds comparison
Cached odds are more than two hours old and are withheld until refreshed.
BetGenius
Our record in Serie A
63%120 won from 191 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
2 published markets
Goals
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
Confidence
Two or more goals is the better-supported total here. Venue scoring and conceding figures for both sides point to an expected total near 2.3, and nine of the last ten matches involving these teams reached two goals. The head-to-head sample averages 3.3 goals and suggests the fixture usually opens up. Three or more goals is less certain: the recent totals split evenly around that mark, and the two sides' home and away defensive numbers limit how often both attacks break through. The Over 1.5 line matches the evidence without assuming a high-scoring game.
Featured
Double Chance
Sao Paulo or Draw
74%
Confidence
Sao Paulo at home against a Corinthians side with a poor away record is the backed case, but the margin is not wide enough to back a straight home win comfortably. Sao Paulo's home win on its own is roughly a coin flip at around 50%, with a draw at about a quarter of outcomes, which together give the 74% figure. Sao Paulo have won 10 of 16 home league games and conceded only 13 there. Corinthians have lost three straight away league games and have conceded 25 in 16 away. Both sides have missed players, so a draw remains a realistic result. The over 2.5 call is a separate, lower-confidence view: Sao Paulo's home scoring rate and Corinthians' away scoring rate combine to roughly 2.5 goals, and the head-to-head average of 3.3 supports the over side of that line.
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About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 3 Nov 2026, 05:15 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Sao Paulo: 4 Nov 2026, 18:05 WAT; Corinthians: 4 Nov 2026, 18:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Published November 3, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.