01:30

Thu 5 Nov

WAT

Botafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction

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Round: Regular Season - 34
Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: L. Casagrande

Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy

Our call

Our verdict

Total Goals

Over 1.5 Goals

BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 72% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.

72%

Confidence

Solid

Preview

Match preview

Botafogo host Atletico-MG in a Serie A Regular Season round 34 fixture, with Botafogo 12th on 39 points and Atletico-MG 7th on 50. Both sides have scored and conceded at moderate rates this season. Botafogo average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, while Atletico-MG average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. Across the season, Botafogo's total goals per game are about 3.0 and Atletico-MG's about 2.5, which points to a fixture with a realistic chance of two or more goals.

The case for three or more goals is weaker. In the last ten matches involving either side, seven totals were above 1.5 and only four were above 2.5. The head-to-head is more restrictive: the last ten meetings averaged 1.7 goals, with only two going over 2.5. Botafogo's top scorer Danilo Santos (10 goals) is listed as injured, and Atletico-MG have five players unavailable, including Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi, which may limit both attacking output and defensive depth.

On balance, the evidence supports two or more goals more clearly than three or more. The expected total sits around 2.7, so a third goal is plausible but not the stronger outcome.

Analysis

Key factors

Season goal averages combine to an expected total of about 2.7 goals, with Botafogo scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 per game, and Atletico-MG scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2.
Seven of the last ten combined matches for these two teams went over 1.5, but only four went over 2.5.
The head-to-head is low-scoring: the last ten meetings averaged 1.7 goals, with only two going over 2.5.
Botafogo's top scorer Danilo Santos (10 goals) is listed as injured, which weakens their attacking threat.
Atletico-MG have five players unavailable, including Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi, and have failed to score in eight away games this season.

Form

Recent form and results

Home

Botafogo

1W 1D 3L · Goals 4–8

5 matches, 7 Oct to 29 Oct

Poor

LDWLLLatest →

atRemo
29 OctSerie A
L1–2
atInternacional
24 OctSerie A
L0–3
vsChapecoense-sc
17 OctSerie A
W1–0
atCoritiba
12 OctSerie A
D1–1
vsVasco DA Gama
7 OctSerie A
L1–2

Away

Atletico-MG

1W 0D 4L · Goals 3–8

5 matches, 17 Oct to 1 Nov

Very poor

WLLLLLatest →

atGremio
1 NovCopa Do Brasil
L0–2
vsCruzeiro
29 OctSerie A
L0–1
atFlamengo
26 OctSerie A
L2–3
atAtletico Torque
21 OctCONMEBOL Sudamericana
L0–2
vsCoritiba
17 OctSerie A
W1–0

Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.

Teams

Lineups & team news

BotafogoSubstitutes (12)

17WarlesonG
13Alex TellesD
33Lucas MonzónD
4Mateo PonteD
22Hakim ZiyechM
10Álvaro MontoroM
25AllanM
91Domingos AndradeM
77Lucas VillalbaF
59Kauan ToledoM
11Matheus MartinsF
19Arthur CabralF

Atletico-MGSubstitutes (9)

31Robert AlvesG
1Gabriel DelfimG
14Vitor HugoD
42Wanderson VazD
34Samuel Lima BarrosD
48GutteM
59João Gabriel Castro SantosF
38ÍndioM
58Eric de Jesus SoaresM

Starting XIs reported by API-Football, fetched 5 Nov 2026, 01:12 WAT. These are reported lineups, not predicted selections. Late changes may follow.

Numbers

Statistical comparison

Venue records: Botafogo: Serie A (2026); Atletico-MG: Serie A (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.

A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.

Botafogo at homeAtletico-MG away

Played

6-6-4

W-D-L

4-3-9

1.6

Scored /game

1.1

1.4

Conceded /game

1.3

25%

Clean sheets

19%

Failed to score

50%

60% (5 games)

BTTS (recent)

20% (5 games)

60% (5 games)

Over 2.5 (recent)

20% (5 games)

Combined scoring rate: 2.7 goals per game (Botafogo at home plus Atletico-MG away).

Players

Key players this season

Botafogo

Danilo SantosInjury10G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

Full table →

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	33	+10	54
5	Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	33	+10	54
6	BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	33	+6	53
7	Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	33	+5	50
8	RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	34	+5	47
9	SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	34	+1	47
10	Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	33	0	43
11	CoritibaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	34	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	-9	40
13	Botafogo	33	-8	39
14	Vasco DA Gama	32	-9	38
15	Vitoria	33	-13	38
16	Internacional	34	-4	38

History

Head-to-head

Full record →

5
Botafogo: 2
Draws: 3
Atletico-MG

Botafogo have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 1.7 goals a game, only 20% went over 2.5.

2026-05-10Atletico-MG1-1Botafogo
2025-09-20Botafogo1-0Atletico-MG
2025-04-20Atletico-MG1-0Botafogo
2024-11-30Atletico-MG1-3Botafogo
2024-11-21Atletico-MG0-0Botafogo

Prices

Archived pre-match odds

Provider quote time: 4 Nov 2026, 21:02 WAT. Decimal prices. Historical quotes, not current offers. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.

Match Winner

Selection	Best quote	Median / books
Home	1.61 · 1xBet Named quotes (5) 1xBet: 1.61 Dafabet: 1.61 Pinnacle: 1.58 Bet365: 1.57 Marathonbet: 1.56	1.56 / 10
Draw	4.43 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 4.43 Dafabet: 4.30 1xBet: 4.28 Betfair: 4.20 BetVictor: 4.20	4.18 / 10
Away	6.10 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 6.10 Bet365: 6.00 Pinnacle: 5.67 Betfair: 5.50 BetVictor: 5.50	5.45 / 10

Double Chance

Selection	Best quote	Median / books
Home/Draw	1.16 · 1xBet Named quotes (5) 1xBet: 1.16 Betano: 1.15 BetVictor: 1.15 William Hill: 1.15 Bet365: 1.14	1.15 / 8
Home/Away	1.23 · 1xBet Named quotes (5) 1xBet: 1.23 Betano: 1.23 Bet365: 1.22 William Hill: 1.22 Betfair: 1.20	1.21 / 8
Draw/Away	2.50 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 2.50 Betfair: 2.40 1xBet: 2.35 Marathonbet: 2.31 Bet365: 2.30	2.30 / 8

Goals Over/Under

Selection	Best quote	Median / books
Over 1.0	1.03 · 1xBet Named quotes (1) 1xBet: 1.03	1.03 / 1
Under 6.5	1.03 · Betano Named quotes (2) Betano: 1.03 1xBet: 1.02	1.02 / 2
Under 5.0	1.04 · 1xBet Named quotes (1) 1xBet: 1.04	1.04 / 1
Over 0.5	1.05 · Betano Named quotes (3) Betano: 1.05 Bet365: 1.04 Betfair: 1.02	1.04 / 3
Under 5.5	1.07 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 1.07 Bet365: 1.06 Betfair: 1.05 1xBet: 1.04 BetVictor: 1.03	1.05 / 5
Under 4.75	1.08 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.08 Marathonbet: 1.06	1.07 / 2
Over 1.25	1.10 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.10 Marathonbet: 1.08	1.09 / 2
Under 4.25	1.16 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.16 Marathonbet: 1.14	1.15 / 2
Under 4.5	1.19 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 1.19 Pinnacle: 1.18 Bet365: 1.17 1xBet: 1.15 Betfair: 1.14	1.15 / 7
Under 4.0	1.20 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.20 Marathonbet: 1.16	1.18 / 2
Over 1.5	1.24 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 1.24 Pinnacle: 1.23 Bet365: 1.22 1xBet: 1.21 Betfair: 1.20	1.21 / 7
Over 1.75	1.25 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.25 Marathonbet: 1.22	1.23 / 2
Under 3.75	1.31 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 1.31 Marathonbet: 1.27	1.29 / 2
Over 2.0	1.35 · Betano Named quotes (3) Betano: 1.35 1xBet: 1.33 Marathonbet: 1.28	1.33 / 3
Under 3.5	1.47 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 1.47 Pinnacle: 1.46 1xBet: 1.44 Bet365: 1.44 Betfair: 1.44	1.44 / 7
Over 2.25	1.54 · Pinnacle Named quotes (4) Pinnacle: 1.54 1xBet: 1.51 BetVictor: 1.50 Marathonbet: 1.47	1.50 / 4
Under 3.25	1.56 · Pinnacle Named quotes (4) Pinnacle: 1.56 1xBet: 1.53 BetVictor: 1.51 Marathonbet: 1.47	1.52 / 4
Under 3.0	1.72 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 1.72 Pinnacle: 1.70 1xBet: 1.68 SBO: 1.66 BetVictor: 1.64	1.67 / 6
Over 2.5	1.74 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) 1xBet: 1.74 Pinnacle: 1.74 SBO: 1.73 Betano: 1.72 Bet365: 1.70	1.71 / 8
Over 2.75	1.93 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 1.93 1xBet: 1.92 SBO: 1.92 BetVictor: 1.83 Marathonbet: 1.83	1.92 / 5
Under 2.75	1.95 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 1.95 1xBet: 1.92 SBO: 1.92 BetVictor: 1.84 Marathonbet: 1.83	1.92 / 5
Under 2.5	2.18 · Betano Named quotes (5) Betano: 2.18 Pinnacle: 2.17 1xBet: 2.15 Betfair: 2.15 SBO: 2.12	2.13 / 8
Over 3.0	2.22 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 2.22 SBO: 2.21 1xBet: 2.18 Betano: 2.18 BetVictor: 2.09	2.18 / 6
Over 3.25	2.53 · Pinnacle Named quotes (4) Pinnacle: 2.53 1xBet: 2.45 Marathonbet: 2.35 BetVictor: 2.34	2.40 / 4
Under 2.25	2.58 · Pinnacle Named quotes (4) Pinnacle: 2.58 1xBet: 2.49 Marathonbet: 2.42 BetVictor: 2.36	2.46 / 4
Over 3.5	2.81 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 2.81 Bet365: 2.75 Betano: 2.75 BetVictor: 2.75 1xBet: 2.73	2.75 / 7
Over 3.75	3.24 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 3.24 Marathonbet: 3.14	3.19 / 2
Under 2.0	3.30 · Betano Named quotes (3) Betano: 3.30 1xBet: 3.26 Marathonbet: 3.14	3.26 / 3
Under 1.75	3.60 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 3.60 Marathonbet: 3.50	3.55 / 2
Over 4.0	4.24 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 4.24 Marathonbet: 4.10	4.17 / 2
Under 1.5	4.35 · Pinnacle Named quotes (5) Pinnacle: 4.35 Bet365: 4.33 Betfair: 4.33 Betano: 4.15 BetVictor: 4.10	4.15 / 7
Over 4.25	4.56 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 4.56 Marathonbet: 4.45	4.50 / 2
Over 4.5	5.50 · Betfair Named quotes (5) Betfair: 5.50 BetVictor: 5.25 Pinnacle: 5.18 Bet365: 5.00 1xBet: 4.94	5.00 / 7
Under 1.25	5.60 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 5.60 Marathonbet: 5.50	5.55 / 2
Over 4.75	6.16 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 6.16 Marathonbet: 6.05	6.11 / 2
Over 5.0	8.70 · 1xBet Named quotes (2) 1xBet: 8.70 Marathonbet: 8.50	8.60 / 2
Under 1.0	8.90 · 1xBet Named quotes (1) 1xBet: 8.90	8.90 / 1
Over 5.5	10.00 · Bet365 Named quotes (5) Bet365: 10.00 Betfair: 10.00 BetVictor: 10.00 Marathonbet: 9.10 Betano: 8.50	9.55 / 6
Under 0.5	13.00 · Bet365 Named quotes (4) Bet365: 13.00 Betfair: 13.00 1xBet: 11.60 Betano: 10.25	12.30 / 4
Over 6.5	21.00 · Bet365 Named quotes (4) Bet365: 21.00 Betfair: 17.00 Betano: 13.50 1xBet: 9.65	15.25 / 4
Over 7.5	41.00 · Bet365 Named quotes (2) Bet365: 41.00 1xBet: 11.60	26.30 / 2

Both Teams Score

Selection	Best quote	Median / books
Yes	1.75 · Bet365 Named quotes (5) Bet365: 1.75 Betano: 1.75 Betfair: 1.75 1xBet: 1.73 BetVictor: 1.73	1.73 / 7
No	2.05 · William Hill Named quotes (5) Betfair: 2.05 William Hill: 2.05 1xBet: 2.00 Bet365: 2.00 Betano: 2.00	2.00 / 7

Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.

BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

63%125 won from 197 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Predictions

2 published markets

Goals

Total Goals

Over 1.5 Goals

72%

Confidence

Both sides' season averages combine to an expected total of roughly 2.7 goals, which makes two or more goals the better-supported outcome. Botafogo have scored in most of their recent games and have produced 3.0 goals per game at home across the season, while Atletico-MG have conceded 1.2 per game overall. Seven of the last ten combined matches for these teams went over 1.5.

The case for Over 2.5 is not strong enough to choose it. Only two of the last ten head-to-head meetings went over 2.5, and the absence of Danilo Santos weakens Botafogo's main goal threat. Atletico-MG's away scoring average of 1.1 and eight failed-to-score away games also point to a match that can finish at two goals or fewer. The evidence supports two goals comfortably but leaves the third goal as less likely than not.

Featured

Double Chance

Botafogo or Draw

64%

Confidence

Botafogo have taken 24 points from 16 home league games, a better return per game than Atletico's 15 points from 16 away games. Atletico's away record includes nine defeats and only 17 goals scored. Botafogo's home record also shows six wins and six draws, so a home or draw outcome covers the most likely results on the evidence available. Atletico's higher league position and 50 points mean the visitors can still win, which keeps this well short of a clear-cut call. Both sides are in poor form and missing several players, which supports a cautious view of this pick.

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About this data

Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 3 Nov 2026, 05:00 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.

Team context last fetched: Botafogo: 4 Nov 2026, 18:05 WAT; Atletico-MG: 4 Nov 2026, 18:05 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.

Published November 3, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.

Botafogo vs Atletico-MG prediction

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Recent form and results

Botafogo

Atletico-MG

Lineups & team news

Botafogo

Atletico-MG

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

Botafogo

Table context

Head-to-head

Archived pre-match odds

Match Winner

Double Chance

Goals Over/Under

Both Teams Score

Our record in Serie A

2 published markets

More from BetGenius

Understand these picks

Other Serie A predictions

Teams around them in the table

About this data

Our verdict

Match preview

Key factors

Recent form and results

Lineups & team news

Botafogo · 4-4-2

Atletico-MG · 4-2-3-1

Botafogo

Atletico-MG

Statistical comparison

Key players this season

Botafogo

Table context

Head-to-head

Archived pre-match odds

Match Winner

Double Chance

Goals Over/Under

Both Teams Score

Our record in Serie A

2 published markets

More from BetGenius

Understand these picks

Other Serie A predictions

Teams around them in the table

About this data