BetGenius
Round
Regular Season - 25
Venue
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee
Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Form

Recent form

Gremio
39Poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-3D-2L · -2 goal difference

Chapecoense-sc
17Very poor

Last 5 matches · 0W-2D-3L · -8 goal difference

Our call

Our verdict

Double Chance
Gremio or Draw

BetGenius backs Gremio or Draw (Double Chance) at 82% confidence — a strong call. Total goals: Under 2.5 Goals.

82%
Confidence
Strong
Preview

Match preview

Gremio host bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense-sc in Round 25 of the Brazilian Serie A, seeking to capitalize on their strong home form and distance themselves further from the relegation scrap. Gremio currently sit in 15th place with 25 points from 23 matches, having built most of their campaign on home soil where they hold a solid 6-3-2 record with 18 goals scored and 13 conceded.

Chapecoense-sc remain rooted to 20th place with 14 points, holding the league's leakiest defense after shipping 46 goals in 23 fixtures. Away from home, the visitors have struggled considerably, remaining winless in 11 road outings (0 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats) while averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.

The visitors also face significant squad depletion, with key personnel including Camilo Reijers serving a suspension alongside fitness issues for Y. Bolasie, Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, Robert Conceicao, and Joao Paulo. While Gremio will miss the suspended E. Noriega and injured pair Dodi and J. Nardoni, the presence of Carlos Vinícius (10 league goals) gives the hosts a distinct focal point in attack.

Analysis

Key factors

  1. Chapecoense-sc are winless across 11 away league games this season, recording 3 draws and 8 defeats.
  2. Gremio have accumulated 21 of their 25 total points at home, winning 6 of 11 matches at their home ground.
  3. Chapecoense-sc possess the division's worst defensive record with 46 goals conceded in 23 league matches.
  4. Gremio striker Carlos Vinícius has scored 10 goals in the league this season.
  5. Chapecoense-sc have seven players unavailable due to injury, illness, or suspension, including Camilo Reijers and Y. Bolasie.
Availability

Team news

Gremio

  • WallaceYellow Cards
  • J. CabralInactive
  • Matheus NascimentoInactive

Team news last updated Oct 18 (6 days ago) — later changes may not be reflected.

Chapecoense-sc

  • HeitorHamstring Injury
  • Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
  • Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
  • Vinicius BalieiroKnee Injury
  • KauanYellow Cards
Numbers

Statistical comparison

Gremio at homeChapecoense-sc away
15
Played
16
7-5-3
W-D-L
1-4-11
1.5
Scored /game
0.7
1.1
Conceded /game
1.8
27%
Clean sheets
0%
20%
Failed to score
44%
80%
BTTS (last 5)
60%
40%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
40%

Combined scoring rate: 2.2 goals per game (Gremio at home plus Chapecoense-sc away).

Players

Key players this season

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius11G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table

Table context

#TeamPGDPts
15Vasco DA Gama30-735
16Corinthians31-733
17InternacionalRelegation - Serie B31-732
18GremioRelegation - Serie B31-1031
19RemoRelegation - Serie B31-1526
20Chapecoense-scRelegation - Serie B30-3218
History

Head-to-head

5
Gremio
3
Draws
2
Chapecoense-sc

Gremio have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.6 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.

  • 2026-08-30Gremio3-1Chapecoense-sc
  • 2026-07-04Gremio1-2Chapecoense-sc
  • 2026-03-16Chapecoense-sc1-1Gremio
  • 2022-07-26Chapecoense-sc0-0Gremio
  • 2022-04-15Gremio0-1Chapecoense-sc
BetGenius

Our record in Serie A

62%95 won from 153 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.
Predictions

1 published market

FeaturedWON
Double Chance
Gremio or Draw
82%
Confidence

Gremio have been dependable at home with six wins and only two losses in 11 matches, in stark contrast to Chapecoense-sc who have yet to win an away league match this season (0-3-8). Additionally, Chapecoense arrive heavily depleted by injuries and suspensions, while managing just seven goals on their travels. A double chance on the hosts covers the predominant paths to points while keeping variance low.

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Published August 29, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.