BetGenius

Vitoria vs Gremio prediction

Checking status…
Kickoff
Mon, Sep 7, 11:00 PM
Round
Regular Season - 26
Venue
Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador
Referee
Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil

Recent form

Vitoria
18Very poor

Last 5 matches · 1W-0D-4L · -5 goal difference

Gremio
61Average

Last 5 matches · 2W-1D-2L · 0 goal difference

Our verdict

Solid
Market
Combo Bet
Pick
Vitoria or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence71%

BetGenius backs Vitoria or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals (Combo Bet) at 71% confidence — a solid call.

Match preview

Vitoria host Gremio in round 26 of Serie A with both clubs looking to create separation from the lower tier of the table. Vitoria sit in 13th place on 29 points, just one point and two places ahead of Gremio, who have a game in hand. Both sides are trying to steer clear of the relegation zone, where Vasco da Gama and Internacional sit four and three points behind respectively.

Vitoria enter this contest on the back of a difficult run, having suffered four consecutive defeats in league play, including recent home setbacks against Bahia and Vasco da Gama. However, their broader home record remains formidable, with eight victories from twelve matches at their home ground and eight clean sheets recorded in front of their own supporters.

Gremio travel following back-to-back home victories over Internacional and Chapecoense, which halted their own slide. However, their away form represents their biggest hurdle this campaign, as they remain winless on the road through twelve league fixtures with four draws and eight defeats, scoring only six goals in total away from home.

Team news

Vitoria

  • CamutangaBroken Leg
  • DuduBack Injury
  • EduAchilles Tendon Injury
  • Nathan MendesKnee Injury
  • R. RamosKnee Injury
  • RiccieliCalf Injury
  • AndersonKnee Injury
  • RamonInjury
  • Alex BrunoInactive
  • T. PochettinoInactive

Gremio

  • DodiKnee Injury
  • J. CabralMuscle Injury
  • MarlonYellow Cards

Statistical comparison

Vitoria at home vs Gremio away
12
Played
12
8-1-3
W-D-L
0-4-8
1.3
Scored /game
0.5
0.8
Conceded /game
1.5
67%
Clean sheets
17%
25%
Failed to score
50%
20%
BTTS (last 5)
40%
20%
Over 2.5 (last 5)
60%

Combined scoring rate: 1.8 goals per game (Vitoria at home plus Gremio away).

Key players this season

Gremio

  • Carlos Vinícius10G

League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.

Table context

Full table →
#TeamPGDPts
8Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+236
9RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+335
10Sao PauloPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)25+333
11VitoriaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)26-1232
12Corinthians26032
13Santos25-132
14Botafogo25-331
15Gremio25-628
16Mirassol26-1128
17Vasco DA GamaRelegation - Serie B25-1325
18InternacionalRelegation - Serie B26-625

Head-to-head

Full record →
Vitoria
1
Draws
3
Gremio
6

Gremio have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.1 goals a game, only 30% went over 2.5.

  • 2026-09-07Vitoria 1-0 Gremio
  • 2026-03-19Gremio 2-0 Vitoria
  • 2025-09-28Gremio 3-1 Vitoria
  • 2025-04-27Vitoria 1-1 Gremio
  • 2024-12-04Vitoria 1-1 Gremio

Our record in Serie A

62%24 won from 39 settled predictions

Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →

Based on at least 20 settled predictions.

3 published markets

FeaturedWON
Market
Combo Bet
Pick
Vitoria or Draw + Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence71%

Vitoria or Draw — 71% confidence

Gremio have failed to record a single away victory in twelve league fixtures this season, registering four draws and eight defeats. Despite Vitoria entering on a four-game losing streak, their overall home profile shows eight wins and one draw from twelve matches. Covering the home win and the draw addresses Vitoria's recent slip in form while capitalising on Gremio's extended away struggles.

Under 2.5 Goals — 74% confidence

Under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the venue splits of both teams. Gremio have struggled for output on their travels, scoring only six goals in twelve away matches for an average of 0.5 goals per away fixture, while failing to score in half of those games. Vitoria concede an average of just 0.8 goals per game at home and have collected eight clean sheets in twelve home outings. Additionally, seven of the previous ten meetings between these two clubs have produced fewer than three goals.

These two calls are about different parts of the match (double chance and total goals), so neither one determines the other. The figure shown is the lower of the two — a combo can never be more likely than its weaker leg.

Combo BetWON
Market
Total Goals
Pick
Under 2.5 Goals
Confidence74%

Under 2.5 goals is strongly supported by the venue splits of both teams. Gremio have struggled for output on their travels, scoring only six goals in twelve away matches for an average of 0.5 goals per away fixture, while failing to score in half of those games. Vitoria concede an average of just 0.8 goals per game at home and have collected eight clean sheets in twelve home outings. Additionally, seven of the previous ten meetings between these two clubs have produced fewer than three goals.

Combo BetWON
Market
Double Chance
Pick
Vitoria or Draw
Confidence71%

Gremio have failed to record a single away victory in twelve league fixtures this season, registering four draws and eight defeats. Despite Vitoria entering on a four-game losing streak, their overall home profile shows eight wins and one draw from twelve matches. Covering the home win and the draw addresses Vitoria's recent slip in form while capitalising on Gremio's extended away struggles.

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Published September 6, 2026. Form, team news and table context refresh automatically.