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Cruzeiro
4W 0D 1L · Goals 10–6
5 matches, 8 Oct to 29 Oct
78
Strong
WLWWWLatest →
atAtletico-MG
Serie AW1–0
vsRemoSerie AW1–0
atGremioSerie AW4–2
atRB BragantinoSerie AL2–4
vsSao PauloSerie AW2–0
- Round
- Regular Season - 34
- Venue
- Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
- Referee
- R. Klein
Published by the BetGenius Editorial Desk · Editorial policy
Our call
Our verdict
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
BetGenius backs Over 1.5 Goals (Total Goals) at 74% confidence — a solid call. Total goals: Over 1.5 Goals.
74%
Confidence
Solid
Preview
Match preview
Cruzeiro host Bahia in Serie A round 34 with both sides in the chasing group for continental places: Cruzeiro are third on 57 points and Bahia sixth on 53. Cruzeiro score 1.6 goals per game overall and concede 1.4, while Bahia score 1.5 and concede 1.3. Across their full league seasons, Cruzeiro have scored 98 goals in 33 matches and Bahia 90, so both sides regularly take part in open games.
The main goal-count evidence points to two or more goals rather than three. Cruzeiro's home attack averages 1.7 and Bahia's away defence concedes 1.4 away from home, but Cruzeiro's home defence has conceded only 1.0 per game and Bahia's away attack averages 1.4. Blending those home and away splits gives an expected total of roughly 2.7 to 2.8 goals, which is close to the league average of 2.66 per game. Their recent results show the same spread: Cruzeiro's last five league games produced totals of 1, 1, 6, 6 and 2, while Bahia's produced 5, 2, 3, 1 and 1.
Head-to-head records favour a goal-rich meeting, with an average of 2.8 goals and over 2.5 in six of the last ten meetings, but that sample is small and includes results from Serie B. Cruzeiro's absence of Matheus Pereira, suspended and also their leading assist provider with seven, plus several other attacking and defensive absences, reduces the chance of a high-scoring match and makes Over 1.5 a stronger position than Over 2.5.
Analysis
Key factors
- Combined season averages of about 2.7 to 2.8 goals per game (Cruzeiro 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded; Bahia 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded) support at least two goals more clearly than three.
- Cruzeiro's home attack averages 1.7 goals, while Bahia's away defence concedes 1.4 per away game, which supports goals from the home side.
- Cruzeiro's home defence has conceded only 1.0 goal per game, which limits the chance of a high-scoring match.
- Matheus Pereira is suspended for Cruzeiro, removing a player with seven assists, and several other attacking and defensive players are unavailable.
- The head-to-head sample of ten meetings averages 2.8 goals and went over 2.5 in six, but the sample is small and mixes league and Serie B results.
- Both teams are in the chasing group for continental places, with Cruzeiro third on 57 points and Bahia sixth on 53, so both have something to play for.
Form
Recent form and results
Away
Bahia
2W 1D 2L · Goals 5–7
5 matches, 9 Oct to 29 Oct
53
Average
LWLDWLatest →
- vsSao PauloSerie AW3–2
atSantosSerie AD1–1
vsFlamengoSerie AL0–3
vsMirassolSerie AW1–0
atPalmeirasSerie AL0–1
Last five completed matches across all competitions. Scores are from the named team’s perspective; “vs” is a home match, “at” an away one. The form rating (0–100) weights recent results more heavily and does not account for opponent strength.
Teams
Lineups & team news
Complete starting XIs have not been received for this match. Check again nearer kickoff.
Cruzeiro
- Felipe MoraisMuscle Injury
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
- Joao MarceloInjury
- Matheus PereiraYellow Cards
- L. VillalbaYellow Cards
- William FurtadoYellow Cards
Bahia
- Leo VieiraKnee Injury
Numbers
Statistical comparison
Venue records: Cruzeiro: Serie A (2026); Bahia: Serie A (2026). Recent goal rates use all competitions, separately from the venue records.
A dash means unavailable or too few matches: averages need 3 matches; percentages need 5. Missing is never zero.
Cruzeiro at homeBahia away
16
Played
16
9-4-3
W-D-L
6-5-5
1.7
Scored /game
1.4
1
Conceded /game
1.4
31%
Clean sheets
25%
13%
Failed to score
19%
40% (5 games)
BTTS (recent)
40% (5 games)
40% (5 games)
Over 2.5 (recent)
40% (5 games)
Combined scoring rate: 3.1 goals per game (Cruzeiro at home plus Bahia away).
Players
Key players this season
Cruzeiro
- Kaio Jorge12G
- Matheus PereiraSuspended7A
Bahia
- Luciano Juba11G
League scoring and assist totals for this season — not a predicted lineup. Availability is only shown where team news names the same player.
Table
Table context
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FlamengoPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +40 | 73 |
| 2 | PalmeirasPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +34 | 70 |
| 3 | CruzeiroPromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +6 | 57 |
| 4 | FluminensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage) | 33 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 | Atletico ParanaensePromotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) | 33 | +10 | 54 |
| 6 | BahiaPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | +6 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MGPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 33 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 | RB BragantinoPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 | SantosPromotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) | 34 | +1 | 47 |
History
Head-to-head
- 5
- Cruzeiro
- 3
- Draws
- 2
- Bahia
Cruzeiro have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, averaging 2.8 goals a game, both teams scored in 60% of them.
- 2026-05-10Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
- 2025-09-15Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
- 2025-04-18Cruzeiro3-0Bahia
- 2024-10-19Cruzeiro1-1Bahia
- 2024-06-23Bahia4-1Cruzeiro
Prices
Bookmaker odds comparison
Provider quote time: 5 Nov 2026, 01:15 WAT. Decimal prices. Prices can change; verify availability with the bookmaker. Coverage varies by selection; these are cached quotes, not a complete market survey.
Match Winner
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.69 / 10 |
| Draw | 4.29 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 4.13 / 10 |
| Away | 4.75 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 4.42 / 10 |
Double Chance
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Home/Draw | 1.22 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.20 / 8 |
| Home/Away | 1.25 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.22 / 8 |
| Draw/Away | 2.18 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.10 / 8 |
Goals Over/Under
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.0 | 1.02 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 1.02 / 1 |
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 · BetanoNamed quotes (2)
| 1.04 / 2 |
| Under 6.5 | 1.04 · BetanoNamed quotes (3)
| 1.03 / 3 |
| Under 5.25 | 1.06 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.05 / 2 |
| Under 5.0 | 1.08 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.06 / 2 |
| Under 5.5 | 1.10 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.06 / 6 |
| Under 4.75 | 1.14 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.13 / 2 |
| Over 1.75 | 1.15 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.14 / 2 |
| Over 1.5 | 1.19 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.14 / 7 |
| Over 2.0 | 1.20 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.19 / 2 |
| Under 4.25 | 1.25 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.23 / 2 |
| Under 4.5 | 1.25 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.22 / 7 |
| Under 4.0 | 1.31 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.29 / 2 |
| Over 2.25 | 1.36 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.34 / 2 |
| Under 3.75 | 1.45 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 1.42 / 2 |
| Over 2.5 | 1.57 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.53 / 7 |
| Under 3.5 | 1.62 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.60 / 7 |
| Over 2.75 | 1.68 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 1.65 / 4 |
| Under 3.25 | 1.75 · 1xBetNamed quotes (5)
| 1.70 / 5 |
| Over 3.0 | 1.91 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 1.86 / 6 |
| Under 3.0 | 1.97 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 1.93 / 6 |
| Over 3.25 | 2.13 · SBONamed quotes (5)
| 2.12 / 5 |
| Under 2.75 | 2.22 · PinnacleNamed quotes (4)
| 2.14 / 4 |
| Over 3.5 | 2.40 · BetanoNamed quotes (5)
| 2.37 / 7 |
| Under 2.5 | 2.48 · PinnacleNamed quotes (5)
| 2.44 / 7 |
| Over 3.75 | 2.72 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 2.67 / 2 |
| Under 2.25 | 2.95 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 2.92 / 2 |
| Over 4.0 | 3.40 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.33 / 2 |
| Over 4.25 | 3.70 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 3.64 / 2 |
| Under 2.0 | 4.12 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.06 / 2 |
| Over 4.5 | 4.33 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 4.05 / 7 |
| Under 1.75 | 4.58 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.54 / 2 |
| Over 4.75 | 4.97 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 4.91 / 2 |
| Under 1.5 | 5.50 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 5.00 / 7 |
| Over 5.0 | 6.90 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 6.80 / 2 |
| Over 5.25 | 7.23 · 1xBetNamed quotes (2)
| 7.17 / 2 |
| Over 5.5 | 8.50 · BetVictorNamed quotes (5)
| 7.47 / 6 |
| Under 1.0 | 9.80 · 1xBetNamed quotes (1)
| 9.80 / 1 |
| Over 6.5 | 15.00 · Bet365Named quotes (4)
| 13.38 / 4 |
| Under 0.5 | 17.00 · BetfairNamed quotes (4)
| 13.38 / 4 |
| Over 7.5 | 29.00 · Bet365Named quotes (3)
| 16.50 / 3 |
Both Teams Score
| Selection | Best quote | Median / books |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 · Bet365Named quotes (5)
| 1.53 / 7 |
| No | 2.45 · BetfairNamed quotes (5)
| 2.33 / 7 |
Bookmaker prices are separate from BetGenius confidence ratings. No opening price or odds movement is inferred from a single snapshot.
BetGenius
Our record in Serie A
63%125 won from 197 settled predictions
Settled results only — every published pick is recorded win or lose. Full track record →
Based on at least 20 settled predictions.Predictions
2 published markets
Goals
Total Goals
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
Confidence
Both sides have scored and conceded at a steady rate across the season, with combined averages near 2.7 to 2.8 goals per match, and several recent meetings and league games have finished with at least two goals. Two or more goals is well supported by the evidence: Cruzeiro's home attack and Bahia's away defence both point toward a goal from the home side, and Bahia's away attack gives them a realistic route to scoring as well. Over 2.5 is a closer call. The expected total sits just around the three-goal mark, Cruzeiro's absence of Matheus Pereira and several attacking options weakens their chance creating a high-scoring game, and Cruzeiro's home defence has conceded only once per game on average. Head-to-head evidence helps the case for goals, but it is based on ten meetings across different competitions, so it does not justify a firm three-goal call.
Featured
Double Chance
Cruzeiro or Draw
70%
Confidence
Cruzeiro have the better home record (9 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats from 16) and have conceded only 16 goals in those games. Bahia's away form is modest (6 wins from 16) and they have conceded 1.4 per away game. The head-to-head sample also favours Cruzeiro, who won five of the last ten meetings. The double chance covers the draw, which is a real outcome here: three of the last ten meetings ended level and Bahia have drawn five away games this season. The 70 figure is the probability that Cruzeiro do not lose, which is a higher number than their win on its own, and the draw is included in it.
Explore
More from BetGenius
Understand these picks
- Total goals: Goals predictions · How goals markets settle · Total goals record
- Double chance: Double chance predictions · How double chance works · Double chance record
Other Serie A predictions
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About this data
Highlighted prediction evidence recorded 4 Nov 2026, 06:00 WAT. Recent form, statistics and H2H above use that original evidence. Team news, player totals, standings and performance records may refresh separately. Published analysis is not automatically rewritten when those figures change.
Team context last fetched: Cruzeiro: 4 Nov 2026, 05:55 WAT; Bahia: 4 Nov 2026, 05:55 WAT. Table cache last fetched: 4 Nov 2026, 12:20 WAT. A fetch time does not confirm that every underlying item changed.
Published November 4, 2026. The original prediction is retained; supporting context is labelled separately above.